Early 2012-2018 Senate swing map predictions?

[Crumpets]

My current guess:

[Blackacre]

Here ya go

[jamestroll]

Why is everyone acting like 2018 is going to match 2016 in the Midwest? This is probably the kost elastic region of the country

Because atlas predicts elections solely on the last general election result and believes that all midterms will exactly match 2010 and 2014.

But keep in mind that this is the site who predicted Democrats would win every presidential election until end of time. Oh let's not forget that this site also predicted that 2004 was locked in stone as late as summer 2008.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Why is everyone acting like 2018 is going to match 2016 in the Midwest? This is probably the kost elastic region of the country

Because atlas predicts elections solely on the last general election result and believes that all midterms will exactly match 2010 and 2014.

But keep in mind that this is the site who predicted Democrats would win every presidential election until end of time. Oh let's not forget that this site also predicted that 2004 was locked in stone as late as summer 2008.

To be fair, plenty of people who were paid to work in politics assumed a D presidency until the end of time. Not to suggest it was anything but idiotic, but Atlas is only slightly more pie in the sky than your average mid level DNC operative.

[nclib]

I never saw a 2010-2016 Senate swing map - can someone post it?

[Crumpets]

I never saw a 2010-2016 Senate swing map - can someone post it?

[Holmes]

In other words you think the swing map will be similar to that of the 2012 - 2016 Presidential swing map.

[Coraxion]

Here ya go

[Cactus Jack]

Not really sure about AZ and MS.

This seems about right, though I would contest some of the Midwestern states. I don't think 2016 necessarily means that Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan have suddenly shifted violently to the right. Also, I suspect we'll see Arizona inch ever leftward.

[Cactus Jack]

^These Senators won by such a wide margin in 2012 that they really have nowhere to go but down IMO. Also, the swing in WI in this scenario is negligible, Baldwin should win by 4-5 in the end, unless something very weird is happening in the state.

Fair points. I yield to your analysis, though I stand by Arizona.

[_]

Not really sure about AZ and MS.

Generally agree here, I think VA might shift a tiny bit right if its Comstock, NM could move right and possibly flip if Sanchez or Martinez ran, and NJ could be a larger swing (Also iffy on ND, only that large a swing if its Cramer imo).  My one big disagreement is NV, I Think Heller will either win or lose by 1-4 points.  I just can't see him losing in a landslide, combining a minor incumbency boost, tying himself to Sandoval, and his likely veto of the Senate AHCA if it ever comes up for a vote, he shouldn't lose that badly.

[_]

^Yeah, maybe you are right, even though I'm not very optimistic about this race. I probably should have gone with D>30%, though.

Well, a 5- to 9-point swing in ND isn't really that far-fetched, given Heitkamp's immense popularity. If Cramer wins, it probably won't be by more than 2 or 3 points IMO. I think whoever wins the GOP nomination will have an uphill battle in the general election.

With ND its 10+ with Cramer, but with anyone besides Cramer and Berg I think its within 6 at least.

[Cynthia]

I would say Klobuchar gets another token opposition and wins the race by 40 points. MI wouldn't swing right that much, 5 points max. Baldwin experiences a negligible swing. PA swings left if Casey actually campaigns but probably swings right since he's such a lackluster campaigner. All red states considerbly swing to the left, but Dems win none of them but comes close in TX and NE. ND probably swings to the left--Heitkamp played all her cards right and will probably win with a largger margin than how much she faced Berg. WV swings to the right, maybe 15 to 20 points, but not enough for Jenkins to win. MO swings right, I don't know how many points. IN swings to the right, 3-7 points, essentially a tossup. NJ swings to the right by at least 10 points if Menendez runs, but not enough for the R to win. NY keeps reelecting Gillibrand by 50 point margins--upstate Rs won't vote for a Senate R that easily. MT reelects Tester, with negligible swing.