Nassau County was more Republican than Orange CA and DuPage IL
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:58:22 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Nassau County was more Republican than Orange CA and DuPage IL
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Nassau County was more Republican than Orange CA and DuPage IL  (Read 1637 times)
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 22, 2017, 01:22:34 PM »

Interesting to note that Nassau County was more Republican (45.1%) in this last election than Orange (42.1%) and DuPage (38.8%).  For the first time since...?

And here's the Democratic vote and margin of victory:

DuPage 53.3% +14.5
Nassau 51.3% +6.2
Orange 50.9% +8.8

Third parties were stronger in DuPage and Orange though.
Logged
Hydera
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,545


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2017, 01:58:55 PM »
« Edited: February 22, 2017, 02:02:01 PM by ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) »

Nassau went for Kerry by 6% in 2004. And Obama by 7.7.

Gore won it by 19%.  9/11 seems to have a lasting effect in suburban NY-NJ.

Even with Bush's unpopularity. McCain got the same amount of votes in 2004.
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,711
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2017, 02:06:18 PM »

Nassau went for Kerry by 6% in 2004. And Obama by 7.7.

Gore won it by 19%.  9/11 seems to have a lasting effect in suburban NY-NJ.

Even with Bush's unpopularity. McCain got the same amount of votes in 2004.

How Jewish is Nassau?  Lieberman could have made an impact here.

EDIT:  Just checked.  In 2011, there were 255,900 Jews in Nassau, the third-largest after Manhattan and Brooklyn. 
Logged
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2017, 02:54:01 PM »

Italians, Russians and Orthodox Jews, all of which are well represented in Nassau, really like Trump. 
Logged
Hydera
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,545


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2017, 02:58:43 PM »
« Edited: February 22, 2017, 03:00:15 PM by ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) »

Nassau went for Kerry by 6% in 2004. And Obama by 7.7.

Gore won it by 19%.  9/11 seems to have a lasting effect in suburban NY-NJ.

Even with Bush's unpopularity. McCain got the same amount of votes in 2004.

How Jewish is Nassau?  Lieberman could have made an impact here.

EDIT:  Just checked.  In 2011, there were 255,900 Jews in Nassau, the third-largest after Manhattan and Brooklyn.  


It probably has a lot more to do with Italians. Italians liked Bill Clinton and were lean Bush in 2000 but post 2000 were strongly republican. Many of them have a strong "National Security/law enforcement" mindset which started with the rise in crime in the metro NY area from 1970s to 1980s which made a lot of Italian americans move to the suburbs in the first place. Which also explains how 9/11 galvanized them to vote more.



Also the Jewish vote is still a democrat voting bloc not a republican one. Gore won 79% of the Jewish vote in 2000 and Kerry won 76% in 2004.
Logged
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2017, 09:46:54 PM »

But Nassau has a more observant Jewish population than most places, so I'm not so sure you can simply plug in the national Jewish vote figure for Nassau Jews. 

Logged
BaldEagle1991
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,660
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2017, 09:52:42 PM »

Nassau County was just wanting to vote for their favorite son
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,445


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 26, 2017, 11:06:12 AM »

But Nassau has a more observant Jewish population than most places, so I'm not so sure you can simply plug in the national Jewish vote figure for Nassau Jews. 



This is generally true, though certainly depends on the area.   Plainview, Jericho, Roslyn, southern half of Great Neck are all heavily Jewish and staunchly Democratic.  The northern portions of Great Neck, especially in the Kings Point area have a strong Russian and Persian Jewish population and have swung heavily Republican.  The Five Towns region also use to be heavily Democratic and as swung Republican, especially Lawrence, which is heavily Orthodox.
Logged
iratemoderate
Rookie
**
Posts: 84
United States


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2017, 06:36:54 PM »

The Italians, exactly.

As Josh Barro observed, Trump won the primaries by uniting the Jeff Sessions and Rudy Giuliani wings of the Republican Party.
Logged
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,068


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2017, 09:06:36 PM »

So will Nassau in the next election vote again to the right of DuPage and Orange counties?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.035 seconds with 13 queries.