WI-Magellan (R): Baldwin +13 over Duffy, +14 over Clarke
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 12:33:10 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls
  WI-Magellan (R): Baldwin +13 over Duffy, +14 over Clarke
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: WI-Magellan (R): Baldwin +13 over Duffy, +14 over Clarke  (Read 6671 times)
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,233
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 22, 2017, 06:26:01 PM »

Link.

Baldwin 49%
Duffy 36%

Baldwin 49%
Clarke 35%

Pretty good position for her to be in. I honestly don't understand though why Baldwin has popularity while other Democrats in the state have fallen flat.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2017, 06:28:20 PM »
« Edited: February 22, 2017, 07:21:05 PM by MT Treasurer »

About as plausible as the polls showing Feingold blanching Johnson. Baldwin is favored, but she won't win by 14 in a state as polarized as WI.

Btw: This is gonna be the case in so many states. You'll see people like Donnelly, Manchin, Tester, Baldwin, etc. all opening out big leads in the polls, simply because it's early, their GOP challengers are not determined yet and polls in many of those states tend to have a pro-D bias. I doubt Republican polls in other states are showing a much better picture for the GOP.
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,233
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2017, 06:30:27 PM »

Baldwin is favored, but she won't win by 14 in a state as polarized as WI.

I don't think anyone thinks that, but Republicans will have to run a better candidate than Clarke or Duffy to win.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2017, 06:31:08 PM »

ahahahaha SEAN rip bud
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2017, 07:12:31 PM »

Well Baldwin doesn't have that much popularity. She's pretty much in the middle and has always been. That's not a bad place to be in though if the midterm favors Democrats and she has a crappy opponent such as Clarke.
Logged
GlobeSoc
The walrus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,980


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2017, 07:13:40 PM »

This type of polling might scare away republicans, especially from an internal
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2017, 07:16:24 PM »

This type of polling might scare away republicans, especially from an internal

Well SEAN said he doesn't want to run, and Walker went from giving signs of challenging Baldwin to giving signs that he'll run for re-election instead. So it might be the case.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 22, 2017, 07:22:09 PM »

About as plausible as the polls showing Feingold blanching Johnson. Baldwin is favored, but she won't win by 14 in a state as polarized as WI.

Btw: This is gonna be the case in so many states. You'll see people like Donnelly, Manchin, Tester, Baldwin, etc. all opening out big leads in the polls, simply because it's early, their GOP challengers are not determined yet and polls in many of those states tend to have a pro-D bias. I doubt Republican polls in other states are showing a much better picture for the GOP.

Trump Midterm, buyers remorse
Logged
Jeppe
Bosse
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,806
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 22, 2017, 07:33:46 PM »

Yeah, if Duffy got results like this in his own internal polling, I can see why he decided not to run.

Trump is immensely unpopular in the Midwest, if I recall correctly, his approval rating was only about 30% in Michigan, so such a large lead doesn't seem implausible.
Logged
Wiz in Wis
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,711


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 23, 2017, 12:04:47 AM »


I know this is what Democrats will say from now on until November 2018, but it still doesn't change the fact that Baldwin will be seriously challenged, especially with Walker and other statewide Republicans running for reelection. She is not some unbeatable popular titan, and the GOP would be insane to ignore an opportunity like this.

These early polls don't tell us much at this point in time, I've said that in the Nevada thread as well.

No... it will be competitive, but look at Feingold/Michaels 2004 as an example of what I think this race will eventually pan out to be, especially as more electable GOP candidates decide to take a pass, hold their safe seats.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 23, 2017, 12:08:26 AM »

If Baldwin is sitting at 49% in an R internal, I'd say that's pretty good news for her, though it is early. Lean D seems appropriate for this race, since Republicans won't be able to count on matching Trump's numbers in the rural parts of the state.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 23, 2017, 12:19:56 AM »

Also it's worth mentioning that when people call Duffy and Clarke "unelectable", it's not as if Tammy Baldwin (the hardcore progressive lesbian from Madison) and Ron Johnson (Tea Partier, radical Cruz-type conservative) were considered electable in the first place either, especially against their formidable, well-known opponents (Thompson and Feingold). WI can be a pretty unpredictable state, and no one knows for sure which candidates are most electable.
Logged
Heisenberg
SecureAmerica
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,110
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 23, 2017, 12:46:18 AM »

Also it's worth mentioning that when people call Duffy and Clarke "unelectable", it's not as if Tammy Baldwin (the hardcore progressive lesbian from Madison) and Ron Johnson (Tea Partier, radical Cruz-type conservative) were considered electable in the first place either, especially against their formidable, well-known opponents (Thompson and Feingold). WI can be a pretty unpredictable state, and no one knows for sure which candidates are most electable.
Very true. Right now I'm rooting for Eric Hovde.

By the way, does anybody know why Walker always seems to do well in WI-03 and WI-07? Both seem to be big labor districts, yet Walker always wins both. Anyone know why? They don't really seem like Walker areas, but it is Wisconsin, and unpredictable things can happen.
Logged
The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,174
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 23, 2017, 01:28:32 AM »

Has Fighting Neumann said anything about the race?
Logged
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: February 23, 2017, 02:01:47 AM »

About as plausible as the polls showing Feingold blanching Johnson. Baldwin is favored, but she won't win by 14 in a state as polarized as WI.

Btw: This is gonna be the case in so many states. You'll see people like Donnelly, Manchin, Tester, Baldwin, etc. all opening out big leads in the polls, simply because it's early, their GOP challengers are not determined yet and polls in many of those states tend to have a pro-D bias. I doubt Republican polls in other states are showing a much better picture for the GOP.

+100. First Bayh - Young polls in 2016 immediately come to mind too...
Logged
freepcrusher
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,828
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: February 24, 2017, 04:03:57 PM »

don't forget that this seat hasn't voted republican since 1952.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: February 24, 2017, 04:09:10 PM »

don't forget that this seat hasn't voted republican since 1952.

And Heitkamp's and Manchin's seats haven't voted Republican since 1956. Does that mean they are safe?
Logged
Heisenberg
SecureAmerica
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,110
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: February 24, 2017, 04:12:11 PM »

don't forget that this seat hasn't voted republican since 1952.
Somewhere I saw an article about how Joseph McCarthy may have cursed this seat (if you believe in those kinds of things). The other Wisconsin seat has flipped between the two parties quite a lot.

don't forget that this seat hasn't voted republican since 1952.

And Heitkamp's and Manchin's seats haven't voted Republican since 1956. Does that mean they are safe?
This too. (Although 1958 for North Dakota, the 1960 Special election really grieves me TBH).
Logged
freepcrusher
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,828
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: February 24, 2017, 04:12:44 PM »

don't forget that this seat hasn't voted republican since 1952.

And Heitkamp's and Manchin's seats haven't voted Republican since 1956. Does that mean they are safe?

1958 for Heitkamp and 1928 for Manchin. Still not analagous. Those are fairly red states while Wisconsin basically has an EVEN PVI. If Kohl could get 58% in 1994 - why couldn't Baldwin win by a lot if Trump is very unpopular in 2018?
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: February 24, 2017, 04:21:32 PM »

don't forget that this seat hasn't voted republican since 1952.

And Heitkamp's and Manchin's seats haven't voted Republican since 1956. Does that mean they are safe?

1958 for Heitkamp and 1928 for Manchin. Still not analagous. Those are fairly red states while Wisconsin basically has an EVEN PVI. If Kohl could get 58% in 1994 - why couldn't Baldwin win by a lot if Trump is very unpopular in 2018?

Republicans won a special election in WV in 1956. I'm not saying that Baldwin can't win, but it's not as if this seat will stay Democratic forever just because the GOP hasn't won it since 1952. These truisms are true until they aren't.
Logged
Heisenberg
SecureAmerica
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,110
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: February 24, 2017, 04:22:23 PM »

don't forget that this seat hasn't voted republican since 1952.

And Heitkamp's and Manchin's seats haven't voted Republican since 1956. Does that mean they are safe?

1958 for Heitkamp and 1928 for Manchin. Still not analagous. Those are fairly red states while Wisconsin basically has an EVEN PVI. If Kohl could get 58% in 1994 - why couldn't Baldwin win by a lot if Trump is very unpopular in 2018?
1956 for Manchin's (special election).
In 1994, Nevada's Senate seat also went overwhelmingly Democratic. Both incumbents were well-liked among all ideologies (America wasn't nearly as polarized at that time). Tom Petri or Scott Klug in WI, or Chic Hecht or Jim Santini in Nevada probably would have won on the backs of the wave, as they would have been serious.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,918
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: February 24, 2017, 09:08:03 PM »

I expect her to win in the end, but no way by this much. We also must remember not to take this poll to seriously. We must remember that Terri Lynn Land had a clear lead early on, but this is an interesting barometer.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,926
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: February 24, 2017, 09:49:06 PM »

Considering that this is a Republican poll, it says a lot that Baldwin is leading by so much. A midterm with a Republican trifecta is probably not the best time to knock off a Democratic incumbent in a purple state.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: February 24, 2017, 09:51:11 PM »

I expect her to win in the end, but no way by this much. We also must remember not to take this poll to seriously. We must remember that Terri Lynn Land had a clear lead early on, but this is an interesting barometer.

Land was a bad Senate candidate in 2014. Pete Hoekstra in 2012 was a bad candidate as well. John Engler or Bill Schuette could have beaten Gary Peters in 2014.

This Wisconsin Senate 2018 race is Lean D. Baldwin is not someone to underestimate. She was behind former Wis Gov. Tommy Thompson for summer 2012, and came back in the polls because Obama's coattails in the Midwest.
Logged
Heisenberg
SecureAmerica
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,110
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: February 24, 2017, 11:30:16 PM »

I expect her to win in the end, but no way by this much. We also must remember not to take this poll to seriously. We must remember that Terri Lynn Land had a clear lead early on, but this is an interesting barometer.

Land was a bad Senate candidate in 2014. Pete Hoekstra in 2012 was a bad candidate as well. John Engler or Bill Schuette could have beaten Gary Peters in 2014.

This Wisconsin Senate 2018 race is Lean D. Baldwin is not someone to underestimate. She was behind former Wis Gov. Tommy Thompson for summer 2012, and came back in the polls because Obama's coattails in the Midwest.
Mike Cox, who beat Peters for AG in 2002 and was reelected statewide in the Democratic wave in 2006 would have been the best.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.049 seconds with 12 queries.