WI-Magellan (R): Baldwin +13 over Duffy, +14 over Clarke

[Heisenberg]

I expect her to win in the end, but no way by this much. We also must remember not to take this poll to seriously. We must remember that Terri Lynn Land had a clear lead early on, but this is an interesting barometer.

Not really true. She was only up in eary polls by a few points at most. And I still don't get this idea that Baldwin can't win by double digits in 2018. If Trump remains this unpopular or implodes, I would even rate the chances of a blowout fairly high. The Midwest is still very elastic.

She'll get crushed in WOW no matter what.

[Shadows]

I don't think she will win by this much but WI for me in 2018 in the middle of a Trump presidency will be somewhere between Lean D to Likely D & Baldwin will by around 6-8% even if the margin contracts & Trump recovers.

The GOP IMO should target WV, ND, MT, Iowa, Ohio first before thinking about WI !

[Heisenberg]

I don't think she will win by this much but WI for me in 2018 in the middle of a Trump presidency will be somewhere between Lean D to Likely D & Baldwin will by around 6-8% even if the margin contracts & Trump recovers.

The GOP IMO should target WV, ND, MT, Iowa, Ohio first before thinking about WI !

There's no Senate race in Iowa in 2018. It's worth mentioning that Baldwin is easily the most progressive and anti-Trump Democratic Senator from a Trump state. This could prove to be an excellent strategy if Trump is unpopular in 2018, but it could also backfire spectacularly if 2018 is a neutral/tilt Republican year. I think she's slightly favored at this point, but it's way too early to make any confident predictions.

I think he meant Indiana. Iowa doesn't have a Senate race next year, and they already have 2 Republican Senators, which will probably be the case for the rest of my life barring some major fluke.

You're right about Baldwin, but Brown is a close second. He literally came out strongly against Gorsuch within 15 minutes of his nomination being announced. Not good in a pro-life, pro-gun state. I think Baldwin is favored unless it's against Eric Hovde, who would make the race evenly matched.

[Shadows]

I don't think she will win by this much but WI for me in 2018 in the middle of a Trump presidency will be somewhere between Lean D to Likely D & Baldwin will by around 6-8% even if the margin contracts & Trump recovers.

The GOP IMO should target WV, ND, MT, Iowa, Ohio first before thinking about WI !

There's no Senate race in Iowa in 2018. It's worth mentioning that Baldwin is easily the most progressive and anti-Trump Democratic Senator from a Trump state. This could prove to be an excellent strategy if Trump is unpopular in 2018, but it could also backfire spectacularly if 2018 is a neutral/tilt Republican year. I think she's slightly favored at this point, but it's way too early to make any confident predictions.

I think he meant Indiana. Iowa doesn't have a Senate race next year, and they already have 2 Republican Senators, which will probably be the case for the rest of my life barring some major fluke.

You're right about Baldwin, but Brown is a close second. He literally came out strongly against Gorsuch within 15 minutes of his nomination being announced. Not good in a pro-life, pro-gun state. I think Baldwin is favored unless it's against Eric Hovde, who would make the race evenly matched.

I meant Indiana, Iowa is up in 2020. But anyways I think Baldwin is safe & will win atleast by 6-7%.

I also think Brown will retain but it will take a good campaign from him & Trump continuing to screw up. WV, MT, ND look much more easy as does IN or MO, I think the GOP can pick up 5 seats easily if they try hard rather than focus on a very hard & possibly losing race in WI

[MasterJedi]

Clarke said he's not going to run and wants to remain Sheriff. I don't think he'll hang on as Sheriff so he can get his filth out of this city and state and go to Fox or beg Drumpf for a job or something.

[heatcharger]

Brittain or Virginia, mind moving this into the newly minted 2018 poll board?

[MasterJedi]

And now Clarke says he might run. Either way I hope he gets humiliated.

[Free Bird]

I am no Baldwin fan, but I will inksing donate to her campaign if that blind cop lover authoritarian is her opponent.

[Devout Centrist]

Trump Midterm, buyers remorse

I know this is what Democrats will say from now on until November 2018, but it still doesn't change the fact that Baldwin will be seriously challenged, especially with Walker and other statewide Republicans running for reelection. She is not some unbeatable popular titan, and the GOP would be insane to ignore an opportunity like this.

These early polls don't tell us much at this point in time, I've said that in the Nevada thread as well.

That may be correct, but usually you don't see the opposing party drop like a stone from early polling. That's the majority party that falls off a cliff. Remember Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor?

[DrScholl]

Baldwin will more likely than not benefit from a midterm environment and possibly from a weak opponent like Clarke.