WI-Magellan (R): Baldwin +13 over Duffy, +14 over Clarke

[MT Treasurer]

About as plausible as the polls showing Feingold blanching Johnson. Baldwin is favored, but she won't win by 14 in a state as polarized as WI.

Btw: This is gonna be the case in so many states. You'll see people like Donnelly, Manchin, Tester, Baldwin, etc. all opening out big leads in the polls, simply because it's early, their GOP challengers are not determined yet and polls in many of those states tend to have a pro-D bias. I doubt Republican polls in other states are showing a much better picture for the GOP.

[MT Treasurer]

Also it's worth mentioning that when people call Duffy and Clarke "unelectable", it's not as if Tammy Baldwin (the hardcore progressive lesbian from Madison) and Ron Johnson (Tea Partier, radical Cruz-type conservative) were considered electable in the first place either, especially against their formidable, well-known opponents (Thompson and Feingold). WI can be a pretty unpredictable state, and no one knows for sure which candidates are most electable.

[MT Treasurer]

don't forget that this seat hasn't voted republican since 1952.

And Heitkamp's and Manchin's seats haven't voted Republican since 1956. Does that mean they are safe?

[MT Treasurer]

don't forget that this seat hasn't voted republican since 1952.

And Heitkamp's and Manchin's seats haven't voted Republican since 1956. Does that mean they are safe?

1958 for Heitkamp and 1928 for Manchin. Still not analagous. Those are fairly red states while Wisconsin basically has an EVEN PVI. If Kohl could get 58% in 1994 - why couldn't Baldwin win by a lot if Trump is very unpopular in 2018?

Republicans won a special election in WV in 1956. I'm not saying that Baldwin can't win, but it's not as if this seat will stay Democratic forever just because the GOP hasn't won it since 1952. These truisms are true until they aren't.