WI-Magellan (R): Baldwin +13 over Duffy, +14 over Clarke

[Heisenberg]

Also it's worth mentioning that when people call Duffy and Clarke "unelectable", it's not as if Tammy Baldwin (the hardcore progressive lesbian from Madison) and Ron Johnson (Tea Partier, radical Cruz-type conservative) were considered electable in the first place either, especially against their formidable, well-known opponents (Thompson and Feingold). WI can be a pretty unpredictable state, and no one knows for sure which candidates are most electable.

Very true. Right now I'm rooting for Eric Hovde.

By the way, does anybody know why Walker always seems to do well in WI-03 and WI-07? Both seem to be big labor districts, yet Walker always wins both. Anyone know why? They don't really seem like Walker areas, but it is Wisconsin, and unpredictable things can happen.

[Heisenberg]

don't forget that this seat hasn't voted republican since 1952.

Somewhere I saw an article about how Joseph McCarthy may have cursed this seat (if you believe in those kinds of things). The other Wisconsin seat has flipped between the two parties quite a lot.

don't forget that this seat hasn't voted republican since 1952.

And Heitkamp's and Manchin's seats haven't voted Republican since 1956. Does that mean they are safe?

This too. (Although 1958 for North Dakota, the 1960 Special election really grieves me TBH).

[Heisenberg]

don't forget that this seat hasn't voted republican since 1952.

And Heitkamp's and Manchin's seats haven't voted Republican since 1956. Does that mean they are safe?

1958 for Heitkamp and 1928 for Manchin. Still not analagous. Those are fairly red states while Wisconsin basically has an EVEN PVI. If Kohl could get 58% in 1994 - why couldn't Baldwin win by a lot if Trump is very unpopular in 2018?

1956 for Manchin's (special election).
In 1994, Nevada's Senate seat also went overwhelmingly Democratic. Both incumbents were well-liked among all ideologies (America wasn't nearly as polarized at that time). Tom Petri or Scott Klug in WI, or Chic Hecht or Jim Santini in Nevada probably would have won on the backs of the wave, as they would have been serious.

[Heisenberg]

I expect her to win in the end, but no way by this much. We also must remember not to take this poll to seriously. We must remember that Terri Lynn Land had a clear lead early on, but this is an interesting barometer.

Land was a bad Senate candidate in 2014. Pete Hoekstra in 2012 was a bad candidate as well. John Engler or Bill Schuette could have beaten Gary Peters in 2014.

This Wisconsin Senate 2018 race is Lean D. Baldwin is not someone to underestimate. She was behind former Wis Gov. Tommy Thompson for summer 2012, and came back in the polls because Obama's coattails in the Midwest.

Mike Cox, who beat Peters for AG in 2002 and was reelected statewide in the Democratic wave in 2006 would have been the best.

[Heisenberg]

I expect her to win in the end, but no way by this much. We also must remember not to take this poll to seriously. We must remember that Terri Lynn Land had a clear lead early on, but this is an interesting barometer.

Not really true. She was only up in eary polls by a few points at most. And I still don't get this idea that Baldwin can't win by double digits in 2018. If Trump remains this unpopular or implodes, I would even rate the chances of a blowout fairly high. The Midwest is still very elastic.

She'll get crushed in WOW no matter what.

[Heisenberg]

I don't think she will win by this much but WI for me in 2018 in the middle of a Trump presidency will be somewhere between Lean D to Likely D & Baldwin will by around 6-8% even if the margin contracts & Trump recovers.

The GOP IMO should target WV, ND, MT, Iowa, Ohio first before thinking about WI !

There's no Senate race in Iowa in 2018. It's worth mentioning that Baldwin is easily the most progressive and anti-Trump Democratic Senator from a Trump state. This could prove to be an excellent strategy if Trump is unpopular in 2018, but it could also backfire spectacularly if 2018 is a neutral/tilt Republican year. I think she's slightly favored at this point, but it's way too early to make any confident predictions.

I think he meant Indiana. Iowa doesn't have a Senate race next year, and they already have 2 Republican Senators, which will probably be the case for the rest of my life barring some major fluke.

You're right about Baldwin, but Brown is a close second. He literally came out strongly against Gorsuch within 15 minutes of his nomination being announced. Not good in a pro-life, pro-gun state. I think Baldwin is favored unless it's against Eric Hovde, who would make the race evenly matched.