I don't think she will win by this much but WI for me in 2018 in the middle of a Trump presidency will be somewhere between Lean D to Likely D & Baldwin will by around 6-8% even if the margin contracts & Trump recovers.
The GOP IMO should target WV, ND, MT, Iowa, Ohio first before thinking about WI !
There's no Senate race in Iowa in 2018. It's worth mentioning that Baldwin is easily the most progressive and anti-Trump Democratic Senator from a Trump state. This could prove to be an excellent strategy if Trump is unpopular in 2018, but it could also backfire spectacularly if 2018 is a neutral/tilt Republican year. I think she's slightly favored at this point, but it's way too early to make any confident predictions.
You're right about Baldwin, but Brown is a close second. He literally came out strongly against Gorsuch within 15 minutes of his nomination being announced. Not good in a pro-life, pro-gun state. I think Baldwin is favored unless it's against Eric Hovde, who would make the race evenly matched.
I meant Indiana, Iowa is up in 2020. But anyways I think Baldwin is safe & will win atleast by 6-7%.
I also think Brown will retain but it will take a good campaign from him & Trump continuing to screw up. WV, MT, ND look much more easy as does IN or MO, I think the GOP can pick up 5 seats easily if they try hard rather than focus on a very hard & possibly losing race in WI
