1980: Jimmy Carter versus Richard Nixon

[Sir Mohamed]

It is widely assumed that any potential Republican candidate besides Reagan (Ford, Bush, Dole etc.) would have beaten Carter in 1980, too. What if the 22nd amendment only applied to conservative consecutive terms and a deadlocked GOP convention, as crazy as it sounds, would once again pick Richard Nixon. Would Carter now win reelection?

[Lechasseur]

I take you meant liberal terms, as Nixon was a Conservative. But to answer your question, while it may not have been outright impossible, I seriously doubt Nixon could have beaten Carter, especially only six years after the former was forced to resign. I think the whole Watergate scandal would have been way to fresh in people's minds, so have to imagine Carter would have beaten Nixon in this scenario.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

We'd see a lot more votes for Anderson.

I take you meant liberal terms, as Nixon was a Conservative.

I think he actually meant to say "consecutive."

[Kingpoleon]

I take you meant liberal terms, as Nixon was a Conservative.

Actually, he didn't need that part. Ford could not have ran in 1980 if he won in 1976. However, Nixon could run for another term, similar to why LBJ could in 1968.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Technically, Nixon was eligible - he served less than half of his second term.

[Sir Mohamed]

We'd see a lot more votes for Anderson.

I take you meant liberal terms, as Nixon was a Conservative.

I think he actually meant to say "consecutive."

I meant consecutive, correct. I just write "conservative" more often, so my fingers were faster than my mind

[MIKESOWELL]

Technically, Nixon was eligible - he served less than half of his second term.

 No, Nixon was not eligible. The 22nd Amendment states that any person elected twice was ineligible. Nixon was elected in 1968 and 1972. Johnson was eligible to run in 1968, because he had been elected only once, in 1964.

[Sir Mohamed]

Technically, Nixon was eligible - he served less than half of his second term.

 No, Nixon was not eligible. The 22nd Amendment states that any person elected twice was ineligible. Nixon was elected in 1968 and 1972. Johnson was eligible to run in 1968, because he had been elected only once, in 1964.

Correct. It should be added though that Johnson was only eligible in 1968 because he had served less than half of Kennedy’s remaining term (he assumed office on November 22, 1963, while half the term was already up on January 20, 1963). Had Ford been reelected in 1976, he would have been term-limited in 1980, although being elected just once. If Pence were to succeed Trump now, he could only run in 2020. If he were to ascend to the presidency after January 20, 2019, he could technically run twice, in 2020 and 2024, and serve a total of ten years as president.

[President Johnson]

Nixon would lose to Carter. Americans rather stick with Jimmy than once again being led by Nixon. I think that some independent Republican would emerge (Anderson or an independent candidacy by Ronald Reagan) and split the GOP vote.

[Lechasseur]

Nixon would lose to Carter. Americans rather stick with Jimmy than once again being led by Nixon. I think that some independent Republican would emerge (Anderson or an independent candidacy by Ronald Reagan) and split the GOP vote.

I think so too

[MeanBeanMachine]

I don't think Nixon would've won any races after Watergate, but it's funny to think about.  Bush and Dole would've also beaten Carter.

[dercook]

Keep in mind Carter won as an outsider in '76. That Nixon got pardoned by Ford would get most people to probably lose faith in them already, and that'd be unlikely to abate a lot in 4 years' time. H.W. would've been possible, though.