Could a post-2020 Republican presidential candidate win Virginia?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  Could a post-2020 Republican presidential candidate win Virginia?
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Question: (skip)
#1
Yes (D)
 
#2
No (D)
 
#3
Yes (R)
 
#4
No (R)
 
#5
Yes (I/L/O)
 
#6
No (I/L/O)
 
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Author Topic: Could a post-2020 Republican presidential candidate win Virginia?  (Read 1795 times)
DPKdebator
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« on: February 24, 2017, 10:55:52 AM »

The Atlas has concluded that Virginia is a titanium-D state Trump has a -5% chance of winning, but do you think it is possible for a Republican presidential candidate in later elections (2024, etc.) to win the state?
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Cathcon
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« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2017, 11:00:55 AM »

I dunno, why don't we wait and find out?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2017, 11:03:57 AM »

How many threads are we gonna make about Virginia lol
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2017, 12:11:26 PM »

Obviously...?
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Eharding
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« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2017, 01:06:02 PM »

Highly unlikely.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2017, 02:43:48 PM »


...not.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #6 on: February 24, 2017, 03:01:21 PM »

Yes. Virginia is a slight Lean D. NOVA can be won by appealing to suburban voters about taxes, crime, etc.

Virginia will be won by a future Republican presidential nominee who has the right message for Virginia voters.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2017, 03:57:57 PM »


Has the definition of "could" changed?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2017, 04:03:58 PM »


True. But it's not going to happen in a competitive election. The GOP (whether it becomes more "Trumpish" or not) can't appeal to NoVA anymore, it's not as if these are your typical suburbs. 
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2017, 04:06:54 PM »


True. But it's not going to happen in a competitive election. The GOP (whether it becomes more "Trumpish" or not) can't appeal to NoVA anymore, it's not as if these are your typical suburbs.

Yeah, but NOVA is only like a third, right?  Even if they do better in the outer NOVA exurbs and the suburbs of Richmond, they likely win it vs. Hillary, no?  I'm not saying it won't continue to trend D, but I think the predictions of it being "gone" are premature.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #10 on: February 24, 2017, 11:10:27 PM »

Yes, but only in a pretty bad year for democrats.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #11 on: February 25, 2017, 03:40:39 PM »

Highly unlikely because Virginia is currently an inelastic state.  Democrats can easily get a plurality between NOVA and African Americans outside of NOVA.

To win, the GOP either needs to cut into one of these two voters basis by getting lets say 30% of the African American vote or 40% of the NOVA vote.

If the GOP completely retooled its message to be fiscally conservative and socially liberal they could appeal to a lot more NOVA voters and would be competitive in the state.  But the GOP is clearly moving in the opposite direction, going for religious whites without college degrees that want protectionism and conservative social policies... this is the complete opposite of the NOVA voter base. 
Same thing can be said about Nevada and Colorado as well, except replace African-Americans with Latinos.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: February 26, 2017, 05:08:46 PM »

Only Rubio, Sandoval, or a Kasich type of candidate could win Virginia and that won't happen since Trump got elected. It could of happened if Hillary would of won.

But, a mainstream conservative not a Gillespie conservative could win Virginia
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uti2
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« Reply #13 on: February 26, 2017, 05:11:08 PM »


Stop grouping these candidates together. Rubio is closer to Cruz than he is to Kasich or Sandoval. People should estimate him in that context.
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