Highly unlikely because Virginia is currently an inelastic state. Democrats can easily get a plurality between NOVA and African Americans outside of NOVA.
To win, the GOP either needs to cut into one of these two voters basis by getting lets say 30% of the African American vote or 40% of the NOVA vote.
If the GOP completely retooled its message to be fiscally conservative and socially liberal they could appeal to a lot more NOVA voters and would be competitive in the state. But the GOP is clearly moving in the opposite direction, going for religious whites without college degrees that want protectionism and conservative social policies... this is the complete opposite of the NOVA voter base.
Same thing can be said about Nevada and Colorado as well, except replace African-Americans with Latinos.
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