No Comey Leak

[Thunderbird is the word]

I tend to think yes, that that may have been what pushed voters who were undecided into Trump's camp. The story would have been that it was a narrow victory for Hillary rather then a surprise upset for Trump. My theory is that there was always a certain degree of hidden Trump support which gave Democrats less cushion then they originally thought.

[ApatheticAustrian]

yes.

but also if one of 284638473 other variables would have changed.

[Nyvin]

I would lean to say yes.

[JohnCA246]

It's like a bad call which gives free-throws to the other team with 1:30 to go. If you lose by one point you can say without that call we would have won, but in reality it was only 2 out of say 200 things that beat you. Every miss was probably as important.

[Thunderbird is the word]

It's like a bad call which gives free-throws to the other team with 1:30 to go. If you lose by one point you can say without that call we would have won, but in reality it was only 2 out of say 200 things that beat you. Every miss was probably as important.

Agreed, there were a million other mistakes along the way.

[Mr. Smith]

Yes, but it would still be a very very pyrrhic victory that would be sure to be completely undone next cycle.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It would have flipped Michigan and Wisconsin. I don't know if it would have been enough in Pennsylvania though.

[Mr. Smith]

It would have flipped Michigan and Wisconsin. I don't know if it would have been enough in Pennsylvania though.

Florida could've been the difference instead in such a case.


That said, I also believe one more week and Hillary would've taken the Sun Belt states and overrode the Midwest (maybe regained Michigan and Pennsylvania)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It would have flipped Michigan and Wisconsin. I don't know if it would have been enough in Pennsylvania though.

Florida could've been the difference instead in such a case.


That said, I also believe one more week and Hillary would've taken the Sun Belt states and overrode the Midwest (maybe regained Michigan and Pennsylvania)

Florida was a wider vote margin than Pennsylvania.

[Xing]

Considering how narrowly Trump won in WI, MI, and PA, it might have been enough, but the same could be said about multiple other factors.

[Pericles]

The Comey letter had the effect of luring undecided college-educated whites away from Clinton and back to Trump, allowing him to win a narrow majority of college-educated white voters who traditionally vote Republican and win the election, and it depressed Clinton's base while revving up Trump's. Given the large number of undecided voters in the 2016 election, and that a majority of late deciders went to Trump-a notable deviation from the pattern in the primaries where Trump did badly with late-deciders-it almost certainly tipped the balace for Trump. The last news cycle was very negative for Clinton and hurt her, this can be seen with her lead in the RCP polling average going from 4.6% on October 28-the day the letter was released-to a 2.2% lead on November 1 and a 3.2% lead on November 8. Clinton's chances in 538's election forecast(now-cast) were at 80.8% on October 28 and 71.4% on November 8. If Comey had not released the letter(what he should have done) then Clinton would have won. I'd say Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida, all won by Trump by less than 1% would have gone to Clinton, Florida, which he won by less than 2%, would likely have gone to her too. I'd say Clinton wins by around 3-4 points and 307 electoral votes.

[Heisenberg]

It would have flipped Michigan and Wisconsin. I don't know if it would have been enough in Pennsylvania though.

I actually think Pennsylvania flips before Wisconsin.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

It would have flipped Michigan and Wisconsin. I don't know if it would have been enough in Pennsylvania though.

This.

I'm really not sure.  That Trump carried MI and WI was a total surprise to me.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

If we're saying Trump would have lost support if this didn't happen, don't forget that he still only won Florida by about a point, so he could have lost that state as well.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

If we're saying Trump would have lost support if this didn't happen, don't forget that he still only won Florida by about a point, so he could have lost that state as well.

Florida's Trump's kind of state.  He'd have won Florida, Comey or no Comey. 

[Skill and Chance]

Yes, but it would still be a very very pyrrhic victory that would be sure to be completely undone next cycle.

I always thought it was going to be a pyrrhic victory for whoever won. They would become the (extremely unpopular) face of their party and probably inflict a lot of damage on their party with the perceptions that they instill in the coming-of-age Gen Zers. So in the long run, I think Trump winning could very well be a blessing in disguise for Democrats, provided they can beat him in 2020 before redistricting and before he gets the chance to appoint too many SCOTUS justices.

I don't actually think the Comey letter swung the election, but I agree with you on this.  Clinton barely winning and being persistently unpopular sets up 2018 as the Republican 1958.  Democrats probably lose 12 senate seats and with them, any chance of controlling the chamber again before 2040.  Also, in any scenario where Clinton wins by just enough to flip 3 of PA/WI/MI/FL, only McGinty would have gotten into the senate on her coattails.  None of the other senate races were particularly close.  With Republicans retaining 51/49 control and a probable 20+ more years in the majority around the bend after 2018, there's no way they would have ever confirmed anyone less conservative than Scalia to the open SCOTUS seat anyway.  Now, 2018 is shaping up as only R+1-3 in the Senate and a substantial opportunity for Dems to flip the House.

[Mr. Smith]

Yes, but it would still be a very very pyrrhic victory that would be sure to be completely undone next cycle.

I always thought it was going to be a pyrrhic victory for whoever won. They would become the (extremely unpopular) face of their party and probably inflict a lot of damage on their party with the perceptions that they instill in the coming-of-age Gen Zers. So in the long run, I think Trump winning could very well be a blessing in disguise for Democrats, provided they can beat him in 2020 before redistricting and before he gets the chance to appoint too many SCOTUS justices.

I don't actually think the Comey letter swung the election, but I agree with you on this.  Clinton barely winning and being persistently unpopular sets up 2018 as the Republican 1958.  Democrats probably lose 12 senate seats and with them, any chance of controlling the chamber again before 2040.  Also, in any scenario where Clinton wins by just enough to flip 3 of PA/WI/MI/FL, only McGinty would have gotten into the senate on her coattails.  None of the other senate races were particularly close.  With Republicans retaining 51/49 control and a probable 20+ more years in the majority around the bend after 2018, there's no way they would have ever confirmed anyone less conservative than Scalia to the open SCOTUS seat anyway.  Now, 2018 is shaping up as only R+1-3 in the Senate and a substantial opportunity for Dems to flip the House.

No, Feingold would've returned. People here don't mention this, but he was actually closer to re-election this time than 2010. He was maybe .25 points less overall, but Johnson went down by almost 2 whole points.

Wisconsin is just polarized enough for the Congressional election to be an amplification of the mood the state has for the candidates.

If Hillary had kept Wisconsin, Feingold probably would've gotten around the same numbers he got in '98.

[Skill and Chance]

Yes, but it would still be a very very pyrrhic victory that would be sure to be completely undone next cycle.

I always thought it was going to be a pyrrhic victory for whoever won. They would become the (extremely unpopular) face of their party and probably inflict a lot of damage on their party with the perceptions that they instill in the coming-of-age Gen Zers. So in the long run, I think Trump winning could very well be a blessing in disguise for Democrats, provided they can beat him in 2020 before redistricting and before he gets the chance to appoint too many SCOTUS justices.

I don't actually think the Comey letter swung the election, but I agree with you on this.  Clinton barely winning and being persistently unpopular sets up 2018 as the Republican 1958.  Democrats probably lose 12 senate seats and with them, any chance of controlling the chamber again before 2040.  Also, in any scenario where Clinton wins by just enough to flip 3 of PA/WI/MI/FL, only McGinty would have gotten into the senate on her coattails.  None of the other senate races were particularly close.  With Republicans retaining 51/49 control and a probable 20+ more years in the majority around the bend after 2018, there's no way they would have ever confirmed anyone less conservative than Scalia to the open SCOTUS seat anyway.  Now, 2018 is shaping up as only R+1-3 in the Senate and a substantial opportunity for Dems to flip the House.

No, Feingold would've returned. People here don't mention this, but he was actually closer to re-election this time than 2010. He was maybe .25 points less overall, but Johnson went down by almost 2 whole points.

Wisconsin is just polarized enough for the Congressional election to be an amplification of the mood the state has for the candidates.

If Hillary had kept Wisconsin, Feingold probably would've gotten around the same numbers he got in '98.

Everyone trailed Clinton in the swing states, though.  And other than McGinty, the losers trailed massively.  Besides, even if Feingold or Kander sneaks in and control flips, do you really want to completely destroy the filibuster (what it would have taken to get anyone left of Justice Kennedy into that SCOTUS seat) right before you lose the senate majority for 20+ years?

[SWE]

It would have flipped Michigan and Wisconsin. I don't know if it would have been enough in Pennsylvania though.

Clinton came closer to winning Pennsylvania than Wisconsin.

[Liberalrocks]

Yes, she wins: Florida Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

[ApatheticAustrian]

the question of PA would be, if you think, comey-leak has .....

1) mostly mobilized the republican voters

2) mostly demoralized the democratic voters.

since it was a high-turnout election, 2) would mean PA would have voted for trump anyway......1) could have made a difference.

[mgop]

wow what a question lol then lets be fair if media weren't so bias trump would win in landslide.

[Beet]

[HagridOfTheDeep]

wow what a question lol then lets be fair if media weren't so bias trump would win in landslide.

Hate to break it to you, but it's reality that's biased—against objectively incorrect choices.

Toodles!