Will Ohio flip if Coal Ind/ Manufacturing doesn't improve under Trump?

[SCNCmod]

If Trump isn't able to bring back Coal industry... and manufacturing in many towns does not return... Will Ohio flip back to Dems?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Most likely

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

It might. I definitely think it's going to be more elastic going forward than Iowa, the other swing state to go hard R last year.

[Holmes]

Depends on what the Democrats have to offer.

[Xing]

Depends on what the Democrats have to offer.

This, and how strong the economy is in general.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Economic concerns can be prioritized over cultural concerns, and vice versa. It is possible to care about both, and to have to decide to prioritize one over the other. This prioritization is the sort of thing that can be reassessed if circumstances change.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I don't think so.  I don't think it's trending R because of jobs.  I think it's culturally a Republican state.

There was some article from a tech company exec who went to middle America and interviewed people anonymously on why they voted for Trump and found that it was surprisingly not because of job related reasons.  Even those who said building the wall was a huge factor commonly said it was not for economic reasons but to "preserve U.S. culture." 

That said, Ohio wasn't a blowout, so it possibly could help at the margins, but I don't see it flipping over this issue alone.

^This is what I fear if this is a racism/"whitelash" issue then we are screwed because the dems can't/shouldn't relate to that

[Person Man]

I don't think so.  I don't think it's trending R because of jobs.  I think it's culturally a Republican state.

There was some article from a tech company exec who went to middle America and interviewed people anonymously on why they voted for Trump and found that it was surprisingly not because of job related reasons.  Even those who said building the wall was a huge factor commonly said it was not for economic reasons but to "preserve U.S. culture." 

That said, Ohio wasn't a blowout, so it possibly could help at the margins, but I don't see it flipping over this issue alone.

^This is what I fear if this is a racism/"whitelash" issue then we are screwed because the dems can't/shouldn't relate to that

Yeah. At that point, it is best to wait until we can win without that.

[Suburbia]

Ohio might flip. If Sherrod Brown or Elizabeth Warren is the nominee, maybe. Ohio is somewhat trending Republican, like how Virginia is trending Democratic, but not in a way that could make it as a Likely R.

Brown or Warren could win Ohio over Trump.

[Rjjr77]

I don't think so.  I don't think it's trending R because of jobs.  I think it's culturally a Republican state.

There was some article from a tech company exec who went to middle America and interviewed people anonymously on why they voted for Trump and found that it was surprisingly not because of job related reasons.  Even those who said building the wall was a huge factor commonly said it was not for economic reasons but to "preserve U.S. culture." 

That said, Ohio wasn't a blowout, so it possibly could help at the margins, but I don't see it flipping over this issue alone.

^This is what I fear if this is a racism/"whitelash" issue then we are screwed because the dems can't/shouldn't relate to that

Racism/whitelash? From a large chunk of voters who voted for Obama twice?

1. Stop looking at anecdotal stuff
2. Everything I've seen in Ohio is economy, folks who feel like the economy may have improved under Obama but it didn't get better in their town
3. It was a blow out in Ohio, largest margin of victory since 1988

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, even in 2018, I put it on the competetive list, Sherrod Brown needs to run the margins up and a top caliber candidate can win again the governorship.

Dems only lost Ohio because of Rob Portman

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I don't think so.  I don't think it's trending R because of jobs.  I think it's culturally a Republican state.

There was some article from a tech company exec who went to middle America and interviewed people anonymously on why they voted for Trump and found that it was surprisingly not because of job related reasons.  Even those who said building the wall was a huge factor commonly said it was not for economic reasons but to "preserve U.S. culture." 

That said, Ohio wasn't a blowout, so it possibly could help at the margins, but I don't see it flipping over this issue alone.

^This is what I fear if this is a racism/"whitelash" issue then we are screwed because the dems can't/shouldn't relate to that

Racism/whitelash? From a large chunk of voters who voted for Obama twice?

1. Stop looking at anecdotal stuff
2. Everything I've seen in Ohio is economy, folks who feel like the economy may have improved under Obama but it didn't get better in their town
3. It was a blow out in Ohio, largest margin of victory since 1988

Believe it or not, it could actually be easier for a somewhat racist white guy to vote for a black president than to vote for a candidate who encourages them to ask deep, introspective, and uncomfortable questions of themselves.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Wouldn't it be more logical that a rich college-educated White suburbanite in Atlanta who voted for Romney three times (twice in primaries, once in the general) and viewed Barry O with disgust and switched to Hillary be more racist than a low-middle-income farmer in rural Wisconsin who consistently voted Democrat since Dukakis, had zero desire to vote for either Romney or McCain, voted Obama in the 2008 primary, and switched to Trump because he didn't feel Hillary 2016 cared about people like him?

Yes, Hillary Clinton ran a surprisingly anti-White and anti-American-citizen campaign. It was very stupid of Her. However, it's pretty clear that outright racism as a motivation for voting is very rare, heavily concentrated in the Deep South (see the 1964 election), and has been solidly identified with the GOP since Reagan (see Greenberg on the Reagan Democrats).

Also, Ohio is not a coal state. Think 2012. It's an industrial state with far fewer extreme social conservatives than Indiana.

[Lief 🗽]

Unlikely. The swing in that area to Trump was because he ran as a white nationalist, not due to economic issues.

The "BUT THEY VOTED OBAMA TWICE!1!" is a dumb cop-out. McCain and Romney were not running campaigns explicitly centered on white racial backlash. Trump was.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Unlikely. The swing in that area to Trump was because he ran as a white nationalist, not due to economic issues.

-I know you're a troll, but this is low even for you.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/189731/economic-issues-trump-strong-suit-among-republicans.aspx

[RedVA]

WV is the coal state, and they are conservatives that will not adapt to the modern democratic party. (Unless a democrat is actually decent)

[Lief 🗽]

Unlikely. The swing in that area to Trump was because he ran as a white nationalist, not due to economic issues.

-I know you're a troll, but this is low even for you.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/189731/economic-issues-trump-strong-suit-among-republicans.aspx

"You're wrong. Here's a link to an irrelevant Gallup poll."

[Sumner 1868]

It'll flip before TX ever does.