Primus Inter Pares - November 1996 General Election

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October 1996 - Labour launches its campaign, hungry for victory

Prelude: After a moderately successful 15 months in office, Heseltine has nonetheless encountered massive trouble with his rebellious backbenches, all the while the Conservative majority continues to be reduced in by-elections. Unwilling to fight his way into 1997 and risk a Vote of No Confidence, Heseltine called for an early election to be held in November 1996, the ultimate gamble to see whether the Tories have recovered from their unpopularity under Major or whether a tide of change will take them away from power:

Labour Party: Labour enters the fray ahead in the polls, but deeply divided over the future of the party as the Labour right believes Prescott's turn to the left (making Labour a more or less socialist party again) is suicide. Prescott and the Labour Party run on a platform of large scale devolution (including referendums in Scotland, Wales and London), a cautious approach to Europe, re-nationalization of several key industries, the scraping of large parts of Conservative legislation on issues such as the trade union laws, and in economic terms, for large investment programs to achieve what Prescott describes as "full employment". Prescott has focused on a populist style campaign, attacking Heseltine and the Tories as hopelessly out of touch with the electorate.

Conservative Party: Also divided, but mostly on the European issue, the Conservatives under Heseltine attempt to win a historic fifth term for the party, having moved more to the center on some issues to become more electable. Heseltine is running on keeping a steady course on the improving economy, delivering tax cuts and targeted spending increases on key areas while focusing on making public services efficient. He also promises further large scale reforms in areas like health and education, and a continued tough stance on crime. To attempt and bridge the divide of the party on Europe, Heseltine has also taken the bold step of promising that should the Conservatives be elected any decision on the Euro will be subject to a free referendum. Heseltine has answered to Prescott's attacks by portraying Labour as returning to their extreme views in the 80's, arguing that Labour can't be trusted to govern under Prescott's policies.

Liberal Democrats (Paddy Ashdown) : Despite a disappointing result in 1992, the Lib Dems return in full force as a center-left party, having categorically stated they will not support the Conservatives in a hung parliament. Under their fiery and charismatic leader Paddy Ashdown, the Lib Dems have decided to abandon the concept of protest voters to seize a distinctive position, pledging to enact electoral reform, wide-scale devolution initiatives, reform of the House of Lords, a strongly pro-European policy (with a referendum on the Euro), a commitment to small tax raises in order to fund extra investment in education and the NHS, an environmental policies to be pursued for Britain.

Three days for this one, info on the Labour Shadow Cabinet and Heseltine's Premiership can be found in the main thread. Referendum Party not included since the party was badly organized and its leader is set to die soon as well.

On a final note, when I calculate results I will deduct the voters for the smaller parties in an equal way (if the minor parties's share is 6%, I take away 2% from each of the three main parties).

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It should be noted Prescott's Labour is not means eurosceptic per se, it's only cautious on issues such as the Euro (whose entry to is strongly supported by some modernizers).

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A day left here.

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Labour wins a large majority. Post with the full results will be up later in the main thread.

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November 1996 General Election:

November 1996 - Heseltine and Prescott fight the battle of their lives

Labour Party: 47% (426 MP's)
Conservative Party: 33.4% (185 MP's)
Liberal Democrats: 10.6% (19 MP's)
Others: 9% (29 MP's)

The campaign started on a good note for the Conservatives, Heseltine taking the Opposition by surprise by launching an early election. Running on a moderate yet modernizing manifesto Heseltine was particularly successful in taking advantage of Paddy Ashdown's left-turn for the Lib Dems, preventing key defections from voters into the Lib Dem camp. Yet by the second week Labour was fully adapted and prepared for battle, and John Prescott took the fight to the Conservatives with a fiery disposition and a burning desire for victory. Despite having neared 40% in the initial polls, Heseltine would soon see his numbers go down.

In retrospect, most political experts agree too many factors were against the Tories for Heseltine to overcome them all. Despite a strong economy and a change in government, the division of the party over Europe was as plain as ever, many MP's still defying Heseltine in the middle of the campaign. That had to be combined with the memory for Black Wednesday, the internal injuries of Major's resignation, the steady stream of "sleaze" scandals from MP's such as Neil Hamilton and, more important than anything, that the electorate was not inclined to give the Conservatives the benefit of the doubt after seventeen years in government. To make matters worse, the Referendum Party of Sir James Goldsmith captured about 3% of the vote despite poor organization, costing the Conservatives as much as twenty seats.

Labour didn't had a slick media operation (as Prescott refused to hand the campaign to modernizers like Peter Mandelson), but it compensated with a deep sense of Conservative fatigue, a strong and clear message (if significantly to the left) and above all, the charisma and appeal of John Prescott. Widely mocked by the Conservatives due to his confusing sentences, lack of syntaxis and his rough manners, his attitude was well received and even embraced as fresh by the voters, in deep desire for something new [1]. Compared to the sheer energy behind Labour, the Liberal Democrats failed to make a serious impact in the polls and the public debate, sinking rapidly.

The night was a hard one for the Conservatives as seat after seat fell to Labour, although Heseltine's approach and campaign strategy was believed to have saved at least a couple dozen seats from capture by the Lib Dems. Several government ministers like Ian Lang, Edwina Currie, Malcolm Rifkind and Michael Forsyth fell, but the toughest blow was when Chancellor of the Exchequer Michael Portillo lost his seat to Labour. The Lib Dems faced a gloomy night as well, with a net gain of 1 MP (losing several seats won in by-elections), the loss of almost half their voteshare and the fall of key MP's to Labour in Simon Hughes, Robert Maclennan, Vince Cable and particularly Charles Kennedy.

Speaking with beaming confidence and joy, John Prescott declared a new dawn for Britain to end almost two decades of Conservative governments. On their own side, Michael Heseltine and Paddy Ashdown decided to stay on for a few months to stabilize their parties, and then hold a leadership election.
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[1] In this case, Prescott being a sort of Boris Johnson in terms of appeal.

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Do you use the Electoral Calculus for this? They have a seat calculator that gives you results down to the constituency. You might find it helpful if you want to calculate the results quickly.

Indeed, that's the one I use, otherwise I'd go insane trying to calculate results.