NJ-7 2018: Is Rep. Leonard Lance vulnerable?

[Suburbia]

Is longtime Rep. Leonard Lance (R-Clinton Township) vulnerable to a primary challenge or defeat in the general election in November 2018? The district voted for Hillary Clinton 49-47.5%. The district however is R+6. It's one of the Clinton/Kaine Republican districts. It has some Hispanic communities such as Dover, where Trump's immigration policies may be very unpopular. Can he lose?

http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2017/02/lance_vulnerable_in_2018_faces_the_trump_storm_mor.html#incart_river_index

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dover,_New_Jersey

[PAK Man]

At the very least, he's very vulnerable to a primary defeat. He faced a political nobody in 2016 and 2014 and nearly lost both times. I hope Democrats at least try to recruit someone strong here, because there's the potential for an upset.

[Maxwell]

I echo what PAK Man says - Lance himself is too moderate and too connected to the district to be especially vulnerable in the general election, but a primary challenger could open this district up.

[Suburbia]

State Sen. Michael Doherty could run (R-Washington Township). He's a libertarian Republican, a little bit more conservative than Lance. He's a N.J. Republican Mountain Man. He can also run in NJ-5 (Gottheimer's district). I think NJ will be a key state in 2018 for both parties.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_J._Doherty

http://observer.com/2016/10/senator-doherty-laces-into-trump-opponent-lg-guadagno/

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/07/rnc_2016_meet_the_nj_lawmaker_who_has_backed_donal.html

[LabourJersey]

I echo what PAK Man says - Lance himself is too moderate and too connected to the district to be especially vulnerable in the general election, but a primary challenger could open this district up.

I agree if he gets primaried then the general election could favor Democrats, but Lance only won with 54% of the vote to a 30 year old who's main qualification was working for the Bernie campaign in the state. If the Dems were to get a better recruit depending on the nat'l environment Lance could be quite vulnerable.

[KingSweden]

There was a rumor way back when that Lance could get a judgeship either at the state or federal level and open up the district for somebody more conservative

[Tekken_Guy]

Yes, I'd say he's definitely vulnerable.

BTW, Dover is in NJ-11 not NJ-7.

[smoltchanov]

There was a rumor way back when that Lance could get a judgeship either at the state or federal level and open up the district for somebody more conservative

Well, i don't see a district as especially conservative. May be - in Republican primaries, but, surely, not in general...

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Yes, I'd say he's definitely vulnerable.

BTW, Dover is in NJ-11 not NJ-7.

Actually NJ-7 does reach one of its tentacles up to grab Dover out of the middle of NJ-11. Not quite sure what the purpose was of drawing the map that way, but I assume it has something to do with it being the only majority Hispanic municipality in Morris County, other than the incredibly tiny and minor Victory Gardens next door. It was in the old iteration of NJ-11 that included all of Morris County however

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think Leonard Lance is someone we should run a solid wave insurance candidate against, both because he could be vulnerable if 2018 is a major Democratic wave and because he's always going to be at risk of losing to some random whackivist who can't win the general election.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yes, I'd say he's definitely vulnerable.

BTW, Dover is in NJ-11 not NJ-7.

Actually NJ-7 does reach one of its tentacles up to grab Dover out of the middle of NJ-11. Not quite sure what the purpose was of drawing the map that way, but I assume it has something to do with it being the only majority Hispanic municipality in Morris County, other than the incredibly tiny and minor Victory Gardens next door. It was in the old iteration of NJ-11 that included all of Morris County however

Sorry, my mistake.

Anyway I think he can be vulnerable if the Dems run a good candidate here and they can get the vote out in Dover, and all the left-leaning Union towns + Millburn.

Some towns that Peter Jacob and/or Hillary won in 2016, :

-Bedminster (Clinton lost by 8 votes)
-Bernards/Basking Ridge (Clinton won, Jacob lost)
-Bridgewater (Clinton won, Jacob lost)
-Dover (both won)
-Hillsborough (Clinton won, Jacob lost)
-Montgomery (both won)
-North Plainfield (both won)
-Raritan (Clinton won, Jacob lost)
-Rocky Hill (both won)
-Somerville  (both won)
-Wharton (both won)
-Watchung (Clinton narrowly won, Jacob lost)

Speaking of Peter Jacob, do you think he can run again in 2018 to beat Lance?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Probably not, but still more susceptible to defeat against a democrat than NJ-11.

[Suburbia]

I rate this seat as Likely R. There is still conservative leaning voters in Summit, Cranford, Westfield. I drove around some of those areas on Sunday in N.J., and they still have Lance signs but leftover signs from the 00's (Bush, McCain).

[Figueira]

Obviously. How is this even a question?

[Suburbia]

Obviously. How is this even a question?

Because it is an important seat in the country, in one of the most wealthiest parts of the U.S. Other years, this seat would be Safe R. This year it may be not. But Summit and Westfield is a bit centrist leaning, and the Democrats could be too far left.

[Brittain33]

Let's see if Congress votes to remove the income tax deduction for state and local taxes. Lance and Frelinghuysen could get Blanched.