What would a Bernie Sanders landslide look like?
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  What would a Bernie Sanders landslide look like?
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Author Topic: What would a Bernie Sanders landslide look like?  (Read 1518 times)
Confused Democrat
reidmill
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« on: February 26, 2017, 07:00:47 PM »

I'm doing some research for a Bernie Sanders timeline I'm working on, and was wondering what a 12 point win over Donald Trump would look like?

How early do you think the election would be called in this scenario?

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Kringla Heimsins
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« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2017, 10:56:45 PM »

12 points is a massive lead, that would make a pretty crazy map:



The election would be called as soon as Florida and Pennsylvania are confirmed D, probably a few hours after the polls closed.
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Confused Democrat
reidmill
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« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2017, 07:15:29 AM »

12 points is a massive lead, that would make a pretty crazy map:



The election would be called as soon as Florida and Pennsylvania are confirmed D, probably a few hours after the polls closed.

I was thinking something along the lines of this:



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brucejoel99
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« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2017, 08:33:33 AM »



Bernie Sanders (D-VT): 394 EVs
Donald Trump (R-NY): 144 EVs
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Confused Democrat
reidmill
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« Reply #4 on: February 27, 2017, 08:50:59 AM »



Bernie Sanders (D-VT): 394 EVs
Donald Trump (R-NY): 144 EVs

What's the reasoning behind him taking SC?
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Representative simossad
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« Reply #5 on: February 27, 2017, 08:54:06 AM »



394 - 144
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2017, 09:00:19 AM »



Bernie Sanders (D-VT): 394 EVs
Donald Trump (R-NY): 144 EVs

Sanders would get Indiana so much easier than South Carolina.
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AGA
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« Reply #7 on: February 27, 2017, 09:29:32 AM »



Bernie Sanders (D-VT): 394 EVs
Donald Trump (R-NY): 144 EVs

Sanders would get Indiana so much easier than South Carolina.

Montana, Alaska, and Utah would probably go to him first also.
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Intell
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« Reply #8 on: February 27, 2017, 09:42:15 AM »



Sanders: 399 EV
Trump: 139 EV
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Confused Democrat
reidmill
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« Reply #9 on: February 27, 2017, 11:49:22 AM »

Let's say you're watching CNN the night of this Sanders landslide. Do you think the map could reasonably look something like this at around 9:25? Then at 9:30 CNN calls IN + GA for Sanders and SC for Trump.



If not, how do you think it would go down? I'm trying to gauge what time they would call the election for Sanders in a landslide scenario.



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JustinTimeCuber
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« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2017, 12:30:27 PM »
« Edited: February 27, 2017, 12:40:26 PM by El Justiņo del Cubo »




NE-2: D+4
AZ: D+2
GA: R+2
MO: R+6
IN: R+7
SC: R+9
TX: R+11
KS: R+11

final map


closest states:
GA: D+4
MT: D+4
MO: D+2
IN: D+1
AK: D+0
TX: R+2
KS: R+3
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Confused Democrat
reidmill
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« Reply #11 on: February 27, 2017, 12:43:42 PM »
« Edited: February 27, 2017, 12:46:31 PM by Confused Democrat »




NE-2: D+4
AZ: D+2
GA: R+2
MO: R+6
IN: R+7
SC: R+9
TX: R+11
KS: R+11

final map


closest states:
GA: D+4
MT: D+4
MO: D+2
IN: D+1
AK: D+0
TX: R+2
KS: R+3

I'm going to go with this in my timeline. Thanks for the input. If anyone's interested in contributing to my timeline just PM me.

It's going to be about a transformative Sander's Presidency.

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brucejoel99
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« Reply #12 on: February 27, 2017, 05:18:13 PM »

What's the reasoning behind him taking SC?

Sanders would get Indiana so much easier than South Carolina.

Montana, Alaska, and Utah would probably go to him first also.

Well, I assumed it's starting by giving Bernie the 332 electoral votes that Obama won in 2012. That's obviously not a safe assumption: The race could've potentially shifted toward Trump, & even if it hadn't, Bernie could've lost states where his polling may have been middling. But let's focus on Bernie's upside case.

So if we're looking at states Romney won in order of how easy it'd be for Bernie to flip them, then there are points at which states would flip to Bernie, based on his lead in the nat'l popular vote. For instance, Bernie would be favored in South Carolina if he led by at least 9.5 percentage points nationally, but not by less than that.

The scenario presented has Bernie winning by 12 points: Bernie would gain North Carolina w/ a 3.2% nat'l lead, Arizona at 7.1%, NE-2 also at 7.1%, Georgia at 7.2%, South Carolina at 9.5%, & Missouri at 10.3%.
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NeederNodder
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« Reply #13 on: February 27, 2017, 05:27:22 PM »

I'm a bit late but here's my Landslide scenario


Senator Bernard Sanders and Representative Tulsi Gabbard - 407 Electoral Votes
Businessman Donald J. Trump and Governor Michael Pence - 131 Electoral Votes

Good Luck on the timeline!
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #14 on: March 03, 2017, 04:26:45 PM »

12 points is a massive lead, that would make a pretty crazy map:



The election would be called as soon as Florida and Pennsylvania are confirmed D, probably a few hours after the polls closed.

I was thinking something along the lines of this:





This.

Sanders would do better in the West, but not so much in the South.
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #15 on: March 03, 2017, 07:14:45 PM »

Elected successors to the president of their party do not win landslides in modern politics.
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JustinTimeCuber
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« Reply #16 on: March 04, 2017, 12:29:45 AM »

Elected successors to the president of their party do not win landslides in modern politics.
Do you... not understand the conditional tense?
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AGA
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #17 on: March 04, 2017, 09:20:43 PM »



Sanders: 375
Trump: 163

Indiana was too Republican this year for Sanders to win it, but it would be close. Trump also gets a boost there from having Mike Pence as his running mate. There is no way that Sanders would win South Carolina because Trump won it by 14 points against Clinton, and Sanders is a much worse fit for the state than Clinton. I don't even think that Sanders would win Georgia in this scenario because he would not do very well amongst African-American voters and suburban voters in Atlanta, but it would be close. The election would probably be called at 11 PM when the West Coast closes, but it could be called earlier.
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AGA
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #18 on: March 04, 2017, 09:22:53 PM »

I'm a bit late but here's my Landslide scenario


Senator Bernard Sanders and Representative Tulsi Gabbard - 407 Electoral Votes
Businessman Donald J. Trump and Governor Michael Pence - 131 Electoral Votes

Good Luck on the timeline!

This looks like a lot more than a 12-point landslide.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #19 on: March 05, 2017, 09:03:40 PM »

I'm a bit late but here's my Landslide scenario


Senator Bernard Sanders and Representative Tulsi Gabbard - 407 Electoral Votes
Businessman Donald J. Trump and Governor Michael Pence - 131 Electoral Votes

Good Luck on the timeline!

Not quite sure he'd do quite that well percentage-wise, but I like this map because it includes West Virginia. Not sure that he'd win it against Trump, but it would be interesting to see what WV would do in a Sanders vs Generic Republican race.
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