What decade do you think there'll be a strong chance of having a ___ president?

[Technocracy Timmy]

1. Woman
2. Hispanic
3. Jewish
4. Atheist/Agnostic
5. Homosexual
6. Mormon
7. Asian
8. Muslim
9. Transgender

*4, 5, and 9 are all assuming it's out in the open when they first run.
*Jewish could be interpreted as being ethnically Jewish or practicing.


My guess is roughly:
1. 2020's
2. 2030's
3. 2040's
4. 2040's
5. 2050's
6. 2050's
7. 2060's
8. 2070's
9. 2080's

[100% pro-life no matter what]

1. 2030s
2. 2050s
3. Not in 21st Century
4. 2080s
5. Not in 21st Century
6. Not in 21st Century
7. Not in 21st Century
8. Not in 21st Century
9. Never

This is a very different question from asking whether we would be open to electing a certain type of president at a given point, because there are fundamentally so few presidents that some won't happen by luck.  By your guesses, not only is Trump the last white straight Christian male president for a long time, but also each president is a new first.  I don't see it going like that at all!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

1. 2020s
2. 2030s
3. rare enough that maybe not for a century
4. 2070s
5. rare enough that maybe not for a century
6. rare enough that probably not for a century
7. 2060s
8. not in the next century
9. not in the next century

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

1. 2030s
2. 2050s
3. Not in 21st Century
4. 2080s
5. Not in 21st Century
6. Not in 21st Century
7. Not in 21st Century
8. Not in 21st Century
9. Never

This is a very different question from asking whether we would be open to electing a certain type of president at a given point, because there are fundamentally so few presidents that some won't happen by luck.  By your guesses, not only is Trump the last white straight Christian male president for a long time, but also each president is a new first.  I don't see it going like that at all!

-This.

[mencken]

Compared to their share of the public, Judaism is much more prevalent and atheism/agnosticism (at least publicly identified as such) is much less prevalent among politicians.

Of course the larger problem for Jewish presidential aspirants is that almost all politically active ones affiliate with a party whose membership consists of a substantial fraction of latent anti-Semites.

[NHI]

1. 2030s
2. 2050s
3. Not in 21st Century
4. 2080s
5. Not in 21st Century
6. Not in 21st Century
7. Not in 21st Century
8. Not in 21st Century
9. Never

This is a very different question from asking whether we would be open to electing a certain type of president at a given point, because there are fundamentally so few presidents that some won't happen by luck.  By your guesses, not only is Trump the last white straight Christian male president for a long time, but also each president is a new first.  I don't see it going like that at all!

[America Needs R'hllor]

1. Woman, Hispanic, Jewish, Mormon, Asian and Atheist are all very possible in the 2020s. Such a candidate can easily win a nomination and then the general election. A homosexual could be possible in the 2020s too, but more likely the 2030s. A Muslim... it depends on the situation of terror, but I could see a Muslim President in the 2030s or 2040s. As for trans, unfourtunately, probably not before the 2050s.

[progressive85]

I think definitely a woman in this century.  I'm 100% sure of that.

I think we will eventually have a Jewish President because even though it is a small minority, Jews have always been very good at climbing through society and taking leadership roles.

I'm inclined to believe that Barack Obama is more of a rarity than a new normal.  I don't think we're going to elect another black person President for about 30 more years. 

I think a female president would naturally come next.

[Person Man]

What about a Good president?

[LLR]

(((We))) will finally get our due representation in the next 40 years, probably. Sad thing is it'll probably be Kushner or Miller, though.

[Kingpoleon]

I think we will eventually have an Asian President because even though it is a small minority, Asians have always been very good at climbing through society and taking leadership roles.

See how that sounds?

[progressive85]

I think we will eventually have an Asian President because even though it is a small minority, Asians have always been very good at climbing through society and taking leadership roles.

See how that sounds?

Jews have really been a remarkable group as a whole culturally and politically in America if you look at all of their accomplishments over the past 100 years.  They have been great leaders in our society.

We have had eight Jewish justices sit on the Supreme Court - Louis Brandeis, Benjamin N. Cardozo, Felix Frankfurter, Arthur Goldberg, Abe Fortas, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer, and Elena Kagan.

There are 3 Jewish Supreme Court justices right now - that's 33.3% of the court, for a minority group that only makes up around 2% or 3% of the total population.  In the current Congress, there are 30 Jewish members.

You could say the same thing about gays.  Gay people are a very small minority really.  It's not 10% of the population at all, its more like 3% or 4%, but gays have made tremendous contributions to American culture for such a small minority.

What I said was maybe not worded very well but the point is that a small minority group can have a great influence on a much larger society through hard work, creativity, innovation, and overcoming prejudice and bigotry.

[Kingpoleon]

PennsyltuckyDem, stop.

For one thing, the number of homosexuals willing to admit it over the phone is 3-4%. The number of people who only have sex with/are attracted to the same gender is probably at least double.

[Figueira]

Really, all of them could easily happen now, or not happen for another 100 years (with the exception of women and Hispanics, which are bound to happen soonish due to their large numbers).

Also, Lutherans should be on the list.

Edit: by now I mean 2020-2024 of course, barring very unusual events.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

Really, all of them could easily happen now, or not happen for another 100 years (with the exception of women and Hispanics, which are bound to happen soonish due to their large numbers).

Also, Lutherans should be on the list.

Edit: by now I mean 2020-2024 of course, barring very unusual events.

I generally agree with this. We are at the point where large swaths of the country would elect a woman, Hispanic, etc. president. Obama and Hillary showed what was possible.

The main problem isn't "Would X candidate lose because they are Y?" It's a bench problem. Women, people of color, sexual minorities etc. are simply underrepresented in politics at all levels. In a country where only around 2/3 of the country is white, and half is female, white male politicians abound and form supermajorities in most political arenas here.

But I'm cautiously optimistic. Before Obama, many thought this country would never have a black President. Now (as an example) I see the same mentality with Asians, that we would never have an Asian president because of prejudice. That can change overnight, if Kamala Harris or Tammy Duckworth were to start a run. But the fact that we only have Harris or Duckworth...that is the problem, my friends.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Really, all of them could easily happen now, or not happen for another 100 years (with the exception of women and Hispanics, which are bound to happen soonish due to their large numbers).

Also, Lutherans should be on the list.

Edit: by now I mean 2020-2024 of course, barring very unusual events.

I generally agree with this. We are at the point where large swaths of the country would elect a woman, Hispanic, etc. president. Obama and Hillary showed what was possible.

The main problem isn't "Would X candidate lose because they are Y?" It's a bench problem. Women, people of color, sexual minorities etc. are simply underrepresented in politics at all level. In a country where only around 2/3 of the country is white, and only half is female, white male politicians abound and form supermajorities in most political arenas here.

But I'm cautiously optimistic. Before Obama, many thought this country would never have a black President. Now (as an example) I see the same mentality with Asians, that we would never have an Asian president because of prejudice. That can change overnight, if Kamala Harris or Tammy Duckworth were to start a run. But the fact that we only have Harris or Duckworth...that is the problem, my friends.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

1. 2020s
2. 2020s
3. 2020s
4. 2040s
5. 2030s
6. 2020s
7. 2020s
8. 2030s
9. 2050s

[Kingpoleon]

1. Woman
2. Hispanic
3. Jewish
4. Atheist/Agnostic
5. Homosexual
6. Mormon
7. Asian
8. Muslim
9. Transgender

*4, 5, and 9 are all assuming it's out in the open when they first run.
*Jewish could be interpreted as being ethnically Jewish or practicing.

1. 2020s
2. 2020s
3. 2030s
4. 2060s
5. 2030s
6. 2040s
7. 2040s
8. 2060s
9. 2050s

[peterthlee]

We came close to having a Mormon president in 2012.

[UWS]

1. Woman : 2030s
2. Hispanic : 2020s
3. Jewish : 2020s
4. Atheist/Agnostic : 2050s
5. Homosexual : 2050s
6. Mormon : 2040s
7. Asian : 2030s
8. Muslim : 2030s
9. Transgender : 2050s

[Dr. MB]

1. Woman – 2020s or 2030s
2. Hispanic – 2020s or 2030s
3. Jewish – 2020s or later
4. Atheist/Agnostic – Mid 21st century. Very few open atheist politicians, and that is unlikely to change for quite some time.
5. Homosexual – 2040s or later
6. Mormon – 2020s or later
7. Asian – 2020s or later
8. Muslim – After 2060
9. Transgender – Not for a very long time, given that transgender people are less than 1% of the population.

For Mormons, Asians, and Jews it is hard to say because, while there are a number of speculative 2020/24 candidates from each of those groups, and we have come close to having them in the past (Romney, Sanders, for example) they do represent a small portion of the population and they may not win. I would say 1 president between 2020–2050 is from any of those categories.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

1. Pentecostal – 2020s or 2030s
2. Hispanic – 2020s or 2030s (should have one now in Ted Cruz but the GOP establishment screwed him and dealt with Trump
3. Jewish – 2020s or later (surprised we haven't had one yet)
4. Atheist/Agnostic – Mid 22nd century
5. Homosexual – Nope
6. Mormon – 2020s or later
7. Asian – 2020s or later
8. Muslim- nope (Americans have long memories)
9. Transgender – Never
10. Woman- 2030s or later (Hillary did women no favors in her run)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would love to see Prez Mark Cuban and Veep Tulsi Gabbard who would defeat Trump in a landslide. 

Dems have to go big and not go with a traditional Democrat, especially if Dems win big in the state Mansions and win the House of Reps in 2018. Now, that's its possible that Trump was a mistake.