Will Cruz's popularity in Texas encourage the Democrats to target Texas in 2018?
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  Will Cruz's popularity in Texas encourage the Democrats to target Texas in 2018?
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Question: Will Cruz's popularity in Texas encourage the Democrats to target Texas in 2018?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Maybe
 
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Total Voters: 55

Author Topic: Will Cruz's popularity in Texas encourage the Democrats to target Texas in 2018?  (Read 2309 times)
R/H
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« on: February 28, 2017, 07:53:39 AM »
« edited: February 28, 2017, 08:01:09 AM by R/H »

As February 2017, Texas Senator Ted Cruz's popularity plummetted and now has a 38 % job approval. Will it encourage the Democrats to target Texas during the 2018 midterm elections with Joaquin Castro as the Democratic nominee?

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/set/ted-cruz-job-approval-february-2017
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Nyvin
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« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2017, 08:29:29 AM »

Of course
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AndrewTX
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« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2017, 08:37:42 AM »

Of course, but it will just waste their money. Ted will just win with at least 54%
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2017, 09:32:29 AM »

With all those seats they have to defend? It'd be silly, than again they've done dumber things
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2017, 05:55:17 PM »

Lyin Ted won in 2014 with just 28.5% turnout.

He could be beaten if Dems and minorities really turn-out

senate terms are 6 years. Lyin Ted won in 2012.
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Eharding
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« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2017, 06:07:17 PM »

Lyin' Ted will win by at least five points.
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SATW
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« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2017, 08:23:50 PM »

didnt u kno? dems gonna have a 100-0 maj in senate in 2019. u r such gop hack for not realizing this! of course dems gonna win texas!!1
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2017, 08:31:10 PM »

Unless it's looking like a 2008-style landslide, Democrats shouldn't waste their time. Even then, he probably wins by mid-high single digits.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2017, 09:33:00 PM »

This is a winnable race but shouldn't be targeted: too expensive and a significant R lean to overcome. If its targeted, I would actually put the race at Lean R or even tilt R instead of Likely, but it would take resources away from tossups.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2017, 09:40:29 PM »

If it happens, it will be about as successful as the GOP's attempt to defeat Barbara Boxer in 2010. There will be a few polls showing a very close race only for Cruz to win by at least 8 points on election day.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #10 on: February 28, 2017, 11:05:10 PM »

Its worth throwing money at. Unlike CA in 2008, TX swung hard against the dominant party(from 18 points to 9), and the reps still kept it at about 10 points in 2010. Boxer didn't have an equivilent to the embarrassment of the 2016 primary for Cruz.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #11 on: February 28, 2017, 11:21:33 PM »

didnt u kno? dems gonna have a 100-0 maj in senate in 2019. u r such gop hack for not realizing this! of course dems gonna win texas!!1

nobodys saying this.
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hopper
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« Reply #12 on: March 12, 2017, 10:36:23 PM »

It would be a waste of money for Dems to target Cruz.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #13 on: March 12, 2017, 10:51:15 PM »

the dems could ofc help to take ted out ......through McCaskilling his opponent, since Ted is known to be vulnerable.

otherwise...no game.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #14 on: March 12, 2017, 10:55:05 PM »

It would be a waste of money for Dems to target Cruz.

I have to agree. I really don't get why people keep mentioning TX for a possible 2018 pickup, even in a wave. I get Cruz is an awful person, but Texas seems like a reliable GOP seat for years to come yet.

Democrats would be better off shoring up all their most vulnerable seats in hopes of breaking even so they can try and put the chamber in play in 2020.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #15 on: March 12, 2017, 10:56:01 PM »

I did hear Castro (the not Julian one) did really well in a matchup poll with Ted
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #16 on: March 12, 2017, 11:17:44 PM »

Ted's certainly on my top three list for Senators I want out of office. I don't think it's a particularly vulnerable seat, but I definitely think it's worth targeting as it's probably the most likely pickup after AZ, and NV. You never how badly the Donald could screw up between now and 2018.
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Figueira
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« Reply #17 on: March 13, 2017, 12:06:48 AM »

My guess is it will be targeted, but triaged early on because winning such a big state is expensive.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #18 on: March 13, 2017, 05:01:32 PM »

Cruz may only get Trump's margin over Clinton in the general, but the only way this is truly winnable for Dems is if he loses the primary to someone very Trumpy.
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Anna Komnene
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« Reply #19 on: March 13, 2017, 07:40:57 PM »
« Edited: March 13, 2017, 07:44:48 PM by Siren »

I doubt that national Dems will target Texas that much initially, but if a popular challenger were to build up a surprising campaign from the ground up, I could see the party sprinkling some resources into that.  All the resources in the world don't matter if the candidate doesn't click with people.  The same would be true for Tennessee too but probably only if Corker retired.

So basically it wouldn't be Cruz's unpopularity but the popularity of the Democratic candidate that would trigger this.
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Skye
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« Reply #20 on: March 13, 2017, 09:13:38 PM »

Eh, I don't see Cruz losing unless he loses in the primary or a massive anti-Trump wave materializes on election day. This is Texas.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #21 on: March 13, 2017, 09:54:52 PM »
« Edited: March 14, 2017, 09:05:44 AM by Brittain33 »

Anyone remember the days where Wendy Davis was supposed to be competitive?
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #22 on: March 13, 2017, 09:59:35 PM »

Please waste a lot of money!
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Figueira
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« Reply #23 on: March 14, 2017, 11:37:58 AM »

Eh, I don't see Cruz losing unless he loses in the primary or a massive anti-Trump wave materializes on election day. This is Texas.

The latter is certainly a possibility.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #24 on: March 14, 2017, 01:07:31 PM »

Only way Cruz loses if Trump and him get into a face off and it divides the local GOP.
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