What Atlas #Analysis will be rejected after the 2020 election? (user search)
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  What Atlas #Analysis will be rejected after the 2020 election? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What Atlas #Analysis will be rejected after the 2020 election?  (Read 4625 times)
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« on: March 01, 2017, 04:54:49 PM »

1. The Midwest (especially a certain state) is only going to trend more Republican
2. 2020 will be the next 1980
3. 2020 will be the next 1972/1984
4. Texas and Rhode Island will be competitive
5. Trump can't possibly gain/lose any support
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2017, 12:27:20 AM »


Are you saying that the #analysis will be that it's gone for Democrats in 2020? Because the idea that Republicans can't win PA is definitely dead by now.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #2 on: March 03, 2017, 12:02:12 AM »


Are you saying that the #analysis will be that it's gone for Democrats in 2020? Because the idea that Republicans can't win PA is definitely dead by now.

No, for Republicans. I've already seen like two people here (most notably pbrower2a) saying that 2016 was a fluke and that the state will go back to being "likely D" in 2020 or whatever based on that one poll that showed him with poor approval ratings in the state. PA might vote Democratic (and I agree that it's the most or second-most likely state to flip to the Ds), but I definitely think it is winnable for Republicans (the same way FL was winnable for Obama in 2008, if you want).

But generally the "fools gold" analysis isn't very useful in most cases. Many states are always fool's gold until they aren't. Democrats could win AZ, just like Republicans could win MN.

Edit: Another thing that could be rejected is the idea that <candidate X is too liberal to be elected nationwide!!>.

It's obviously ridiculous to say that PA is certain to flip, but if it's only two people claiming that, I don't think it can really be called the prevailing analysis here. I'd sooner say that MI is going to be very hard for Trump to hold on to, though it's obviously not Safe D or "fool's gold."
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #3 on: March 11, 2017, 03:47:05 PM »

1. New Hampshire is a titanium D state that a Republican will never win.
2. Young people will vote even more Democratic.

"even more Democratic" - than 2016? What exactly makes you think young people are trending Republican? You're aware that Trump's approval ratings among 18-29 are absolutely atrocious, right? The odds that 14-18 year olds right now have broken from their peers by margins large enough to further reduce Dem margins in 2020 from 2016 is pretty slim if you ask me.

This is one sword I'm willing to die by. The odds that Democrats in 2020 do even just a little better than Clinton did among 18-29 year olds is way better than the Republicans doing better than Trump among them.

But you're forgetting the best #AtlasAnalysis of all... Generation Z is all neo-Nazis who want people like Richard Spencer in the White House, but will settle for Trump.
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