What Atlas #Analysis will be rejected after the 2020 election?

[twenty42]

We now see that much Atlas #analysis of the 2016 election was wrong or is now seen to be wrong. I am sure that much of what we think about the 2020 election will be proven wrong? Which pieces of current conventional wisdom on this forum do you view as ridiculous and wrong? What do you think will be proven wrong after the 2020 election? Discuss!

There will be plenty of posters predicting a 1932/1980ish repudiation of Trump, who will then be promptly disappointed and disenchanted when both major party candidates receive at least 45% of the popular vote.

[twenty42]

To make a meta-analysis here, the notion that presidential elections are predictable, scientific events is rather laughable. 2020 may be another 1932, and it may be another 1984. Both seem extremely unlikely at this point, but it really all depends on Trump's first term.