What Atlas #Analysis will be rejected after the 2020 election? (user search)
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  What Atlas #Analysis will be rejected after the 2020 election? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What Atlas #Analysis will be rejected after the 2020 election?  (Read 4630 times)
Ronnie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,993
United States
« on: March 02, 2017, 11:22:36 PM »
« edited: March 03, 2017, 02:30:19 AM by Ronnie »

Demographics are destiny, the Midwest is maxed out for Republicans, PA is gone/fool's gold, polling is never wrong, high voter turnout always benefits Democrats, etc.

The idea that demographics are destiny is obviously ridiculous, but I think it's hard to deny that things get harder for Republicans every passing cycle.  Unless they improve their numbers with whites, they will eventually have to win over a substantial chunk of the minority vote.  The population is also trending less religious. 12% of voters didn't belong to a religious category in 2012; that percentage increased to 15% in 2016.
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Ronnie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,993
United States
« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2017, 02:17:10 AM »
« Edited: March 12, 2017, 02:34:30 AM by Ronnie »

It's my belief that if Democrats put up someone like Warren against Trump in 2020, the youth vote could see a substantial shift to Democrats. Hillary was an awful pick for winning over young voters, yet she still did pretty well, all things considered.

What if they don’t put up someone like Warren though?  I’m curious as to what your reaction is to my thoughts here on Clinton and the resistance to her from Sanders-istas:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=260124.msg5563922#msg5563922

Were Clinton’s problems among the young really that specific to her, or is this something that’s just going to be a feature of politics now, that there’s a non-negligible number of (mostly young) progressives who are sufficiently turned off by any “establishment” candidate that they go 3rd party or don’t vote—something that wasn’t happening ten years ago?  Would/will Booker or Gillibrand or someone similar face similar problems in 2020 because they’re considered “establishment”?


It's possible they would, but I think it's also possible a number of them voted third party because the likelihood of Trump being elected seemed distant, and they didn't know what the consequences would entail.  Now that Trump is actually president, I think they may be less inclined to register a protest vote.  

Also, I'm not sure millennials are necessarily ideologically rigid leftists.  They did support Bernie, but before that, Obama wasn't really all that liberal.  I think that, more than anything else, they want someone who comes across as authentic and honest.
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