To make a meta-analysis here, the notion that presidential elections are predictable, scientific events is rather laughable. 2020 may be another 1932, and it may be another 1984. Both seem extremely unlikely at this point, but it really all depends on Trump's first term.
You have the extremes involving the first terms of Presidents.
He will be lucky to be Bush 2004. Dubya rode the political aftermath of 9/11 very well and ran against a very weak opponent. Barring some event that he can exploit he already shows signs of being very disappointing. So what does he have in common with Dubya? He won despite losing the popular vote.
Quality in a President is subjective in the extreme. It is possible to win re-election when over 40% of the public thinks one is absolutely awful.
He has done nothing to win the support of people who voted against him. He has told people simply to believe him and obey him because his politics are the wave of the future or some Mussolini-style malarkey.
...Donald Trump makes me glad that I have no children.
