What Atlas #Analysis will be rejected after the 2020 election?

[Skill and Chance]

>10 point wins are impossible anymore.

[Skill and Chance]

Keep in mind that the very beginning of the term doesn't tell us much historically.  Of the 5 1-term presidents of the 20th century, the only one who looked like he was obviously going to lose at the end of year 1 was Hoover.

Similarly, it was not at all obvious that Reagan, Nixon, or Eisenhower would be reelected in landslides at the end of year 1.  It was pretty well foreshadowed that 1936 and 1964 would be Dem landslides, though.

For much of George H. W. Bush's term, it looked like he would win reelection in a landslide.  Similarly, no one looking at George W. Bush's approval in January, 2002 would have expected a close election in 2004.

[Skill and Chance]

Not sure if anyone mentioned this yet, but I think the idea that America isn't a dying democracy will be definitively disproven, for those willing to accept the message.  For what it's worth, though, that conclusion likely won't rely on any particular outcome.

Eh, if we survived 1850-1880 (and came out of it on net much more democratic than we were before), we can sure as heck survive this.