Schumer thinks dems can get the senate in 2018

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Watch the Governorships in OH, MI, IL, NM, NV, ME, NJ, VA, CO, PA and FLand our Senate seats and House seats will be very kind to the Dems.  Remember Dems failed in winning 3 consecutive presidential elections in 2016 and no party hasn't won 3 straight election cycles in a row.  If any sort of wave happens, it will happen under an unpopular Trump, just like it did in 2006 under post-Katrina Dubya.

[Bojack Horseman]

I'd say there's about as much a chance of Democrats taking the Senate in 2018 as there is Republicans winning a filibuster-proof majority. The Democrats need to pour every penny in their coffers into taking back the House in 2018 to end Donald Trump's agenda.

[Figueira]

I'd say there's about as much a chance of Democrats taking the Senate in 2018 as there is Republicans winning a filibuster-proof majority. The Democrats need to pour every penny in their coffers into taking back the House in 2018 to end Donald Trump's agenda.

...and ignoring the Senate, killing any hope of winning the Senate in 2020?

[peterthlee]

In theory he's right. The modal verb 'can' is different from the auxiliary 'will'.

The odds of taking back the Senate is slim, though. At least Dems have 4 seats in deep red states.

[HAnnA MArin County]

I think Tennessee is more likely than Utah if Andy Berke gets into the race. But yeah, the path is limited.

No one is defeating Corker. But maybe if he retires it's possible

Isn't Corker one of the more "sane" Republicans in the Senate? Surprised he hasn't been teabagged yet.

[Dr. MB]

Sorry Chuck, but not happening.

Heitkamp's gone. Probably Donnelly or McCaskill as well. Maybe even Tester.

The only real possibilities of gains are in Nevada and Arizona.

Texas is a liberal's wet dream. But Cruz is staying.

Utah is where it gets interesting. If Huntsman or McMullin run as an independent there's no way to tell what will happen.

I could say Dems will end up with between 46 and 49 seats, but even that is stretching it. 47 is my guess.

[peterthlee]

Sorry Chuck, but not happening.

Heitkamp's gone. Probably Donnelly or McCaskill as well. Maybe even Tester.

The only real possibilities of gains are in Nevada and Arizona.

Texas is a liberal's wet dream. But Cruz is staying.

Utah is where it gets interesting. If Huntsman or McMullin run as an independent there's no way to tell what will happen.

I could say Dems will end up with between 46 and 49 seats, but even that is stretching it. 47 is my guess.

Plausible. I'd bet for 49 seats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At this point, Dems are targeting the House, but a bad midterm, for Trump, we don't know what's in store for the GOP. After, Dems netting the House and many govs mansions and state legislatures.

[Skill and Chance]

Frankly, the most viable path is hold everything + NV + AZ + Collins party switch.  It probably requires Trump to have <35% approval, though and I would still be surprised if at least one of the >55% Trump state Dem incumbents doesn't go down even in that scenario (probably McCaskill or Donnelly).  The next best opportunity involves an anti-trade/immigration hardliner beating Cruz in the TX-SEN primary with Trump's endorsement, but that is also a stretch.   

[MT Treasurer]

Frankly, the most viable path is hold everything + NV + AZ + Collins party switch.  It probably requires Trump to have <35% approval, though and I would still be surprised if at least one of the >55% Trump state Dem incumbents doesn't go down even in that scenario (probably McCaskill or Donnelly).  The next best opportunity involves an anti-trade/immigration hardliner beating Cruz in the TX-SEN primary with Trump's endorsement, but that is also a stretch.    

Collins switching parties is about as likely as Manchin switching parties or King becoming a Republican.

[Skill and Chance]

Frankly, the most viable path is hold everything + NV + AZ + Collins party switch.  It probably requires Trump to have <35% approval, though and I would still be surprised if at least one of the >55% Trump state Dem incumbents doesn't go down even in that scenario (probably McCaskill or Donnelly).  The next best opportunity involves an anti-trade/immigration hardliner beating Cruz in the TX-SEN primary with Trump's endorsement, but that is also a stretch.    

Collins switching parties is about as likely as Manchin switching parties or King becoming a Republican.

Yeah, they'd have to worry about that too, but those would only happen if Trump was reasonably popular.  I think if either were going to switch under Trump, they would have announced it in December of last year.  Also, if anyone does switch, I think it would be R->I or D->I, not straight R->D given the long memories of today's primary voters.  I also wouldn't rule out a grand coalition situation where 10-15 populist R's and D's, probably from rural states, decide to take control of the chamber and oust the current leadership.  That seems like something Trump could get behind, particularly if Dems retake the House and are willing to make a deal on infrastructure or paid family leave.

[Virginiá]

What state legislatures are even possible to flip? The rural/urban divide makes it unlikely to flip almost any state legislatures

Colorado is basically a given. New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, Washington (this year's special election might do it for Democrats, though). There are even more targets in terms of single chambers, giving Democrats a chance to break GOP control even if not seizing control themselves outright.

I think a lot of the state-level gains would be in the form of those^ legislatures above and hopefully sweeping gubernatorial races, which would give Democrats unified control over a lot more states. After all, GOP governors in states with Democratic legislatures do bring down the unified control count a fair bit. An incredible year (keyword: incredible) could leave Democrats with upwards of ~16 unified state governments and more split GOP state govts.

[SWE]

Frankly, the most viable path is hold everything + NV + AZ + Collins party switch.  It probably requires Trump to have <35% approval, though and I would still be surprised if at least one of the >55% Trump state Dem incumbents doesn't go down even in that scenario (probably McCaskill or Donnelly).  The next best opportunity involves an anti-trade/immigration hardliner beating Cruz in the TX-SEN primary with Trump's endorsement, but that is also a stretch.   

Collins switching parties is about as likely as Manchin switching parties or King becoming a Republican.

Yeah, they'd have to worry about that too,

No they wouldn't. That's the point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV Dina Titus+AZ Kysten Sinema+TX with O'Rourke is the viable path for a Democratic Senate.

[Dr. MB]

NV Dina Titus+AZ Kysten Sinema+TX with O'Rourke is the viable path for a Democratic Senate.

And they'd have to defend ND, MO, IN, and all the others. Texas will be within ten points, but Cruz will still win.

[Rjjr77]

Dems have a 4% chance of winning Missouri. Air Claire is toast

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not saying that the Dems will take Senate but Dems can pick up, up to 10 govs in OH, IL, MI, WI, NV, NM, FL, ME, NH(if Chris Pappas runs) and NJ and within those are plenty of House gains for a majority.

But, there hasn't been a single time in history that the House has flipped without the senate.  But, if Trump gets involved in the Texas Senate race because he doesn't like Cruz, our chances with O'Rourke taking out Cruz increases, not with Castro.

[pppolitics]

Let us say miraculously they retain all seats & win NV & AZ (which is possible), what is the 51st seat? Texas, Nebraska?

It is just pure flat out impossible !

That's what I am wondering too.

[UWS]

Let us say miraculously they retain all seats & win NV & AZ (which is possible), what is the 51st seat? Texas, Nebraska?

It is just pure flat out impossible !

That's what I am wondering too.

I think the 51st seat might be Utah if Evan McMullin runs for Senate as an Independent, thus dividing the conservative vote and possibly allowing the Democrats to win this seat.

[Blackacre]

Not saying that the Dems will take Senate but Dems can pick up, up to 10 govs in OH, IL, MI, WI, NV, NM, FL, ME, NH(if Chris Pappas runs) and NJ and within those are plenty of House gains for a majority.

But, there hasn't been a single time in history that the House has flipped without the senate.  But, if Trump gets involved in the Texas Senate race because he doesn't like Cruz, our chances with O'Rourke taking out Cruz increases, not with Castro.

2010. House flipped, Senate did not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not saying that the Dems will take Senate but Dems can pick up, up to 10 govs in OH, IL, MI, WI, NV, NM, FL, ME, NH(if Chris Pappas runs) and NJ and within those are plenty of House gains for a majority.

But, there hasn't been a single time in history that the House has flipped without the senate.  But, if Trump gets involved in the Texas Senate race because he doesn't like Cruz, our chances with O'Rourke taking out Cruz increases, not with Castro.

2010. House flipped, Senate did not.

Well, if Dems do as well as on election night in winning OH, IL, NM, NV, CO, PA, NJ, VA, ME, MI and MN Pelosi will be Speaker and we can make dividends in that AZ and TX senate race and NV too.

Fending off GOP challengers in MO, OH, ND and IN, in the Senate.