What percent chance do the Democrats have of taking back the senate?

[🕴🏼Melior🕴🏼]

I would say around 5%

This is the most likely Democratic Party victory:

Democrats: 51 seats (+3)
Republicans: 49 seats (-3)

In order for the Democrats to take back the senate, they will have to retain all of their current seats and gain 3 other seats.

Of the seats held by Republicans, Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi are all safe R. Nevada is a toss up/lean R. Arizona and Texas are likely R, but it's possible that the Democrats could win them if Donald Trump's approval ratings are EXTREMELY low. The map posted above is how a Democratic takeover would look like. Of course, this will probably not happen.

What would it take for this to happen?

[OneJ]

Sheesh. I wish there was a way to get Mississippi to be competitive without it being so difficult. Plus, Democrats have a long uphill battle to keep all of those states.

However, your map looks good to me.

[Strudelcutie4427]

With the current map I'd say their odds are √ ̅ -1.

That is, imaginary

[Nyvin]

Hatch retiring and the Utah seat becoming somehow competitive due to Trump is more likely than Texas flipping.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Not even 1% without some deaths or resignations.

[Xing]

Probably about 0.1%

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM

Sorry, I had to.

[Figueira]

Like 2 or so. Maybe 3.

Texas is still more likely than Utah. The Utah Dems aren't nominating anyone with a shot at winning, and McMullin/whoever is not caucusing with the Democrats. Texas is close enough on the presidential that I could see anti-Trump (and anti-Cruz) sentiment pulling the Democrat over the edge in very, very extreme circumstnaces. But I'm not holding my breath.

[Tartarus Sauce]

In a world where Donald Trump is president, nothing can be taken for granted.

[Ronnie]

I think it would be a victory for Dems if they just lose 1-2 seats, let alone break even.  Gaining enough seats to take over the senate is a pipe dream.

[MT Treasurer]

0.7% - Democrats aren't going to hold all their seats in Trump states. Especially IN and MO will require a miracle or another Akin/Mourdock (which isn't likely to happen this time).

[smoltchanov]

< 1%.

[Hoosier_Nick]

2%

[Figueira]

0.7% - Democrats aren't going to hold all their seats in Trump states. Especially IN and MO will require a miracle or another Akin/Mourdock (which isn't likely to happen this time).

I don't agree that McCaskill and Donnelly are totally doomed, but I agree that holding all the current seats is the main reason why this is so hard.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

0.7% - Democrats aren't going to hold all their seats in Trump states. Especially IN and MO will require a miracle or another Akin/Mourdock (which isn't likely to happen this time).

I don't agree that Donnelly should be completely written off (though he certainly isn't favored), but yeah, McCaskill is finished.

[Blackacre]

4%, or a 1 in 25 chance.

[Cynthia]

10% at most, being very optimistic.

[Skill and Chance]

1-2%: Trump has to be at <40% approval, allowing Democrats to pick up NV and AZ and hold all of their Trump state seats and one of these happens.  In order of likelihood:

1. Susan Collins leaves the GOP and becomes a Dem-caucusing independent with some encouragement from Angus King.  The Dems offer her a top leadership position.

2. Cruz loses the GOP senate primary to a hardcore Trumpist due to skewed turnout in the runoff.  The hardcore Trumpist narrowly loses to O'Rourke or Castro in the general.

3. Hatch retires or loses renomination and a Mormon independent in the mold of Evan McMullin runs.  Either the vote splitting elects the Democrat, or, more likely, the independent wins and caucuses with the Democrats

3.  The whole Rob Bentley-Luther Strange saga in Alabama becomes at least as toxic of a scandal as Blagojevich-Burris was in Illinois.  Strange either loses the general or loses the primary to someone like Roy Moore who then loses the general.

4. Jim Hood finally runs in MS and beats a nutty person like Chris McDaniel who either successfully primaried Wicker or won the primary in an open seat.  If it happened in LA-GOV, it can happen next door.

Working on Collins is a necessary first step, as it's unlikely that all of the Trump state Dems survive 2018 even in a wave.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

According to my semi-scientific odds, I give the Democrats a one-in-15-million chance to take back the Senate, barring out-of-cycle party changes, in 2018.  Due to results being correlated, maybe it's more like 1-in-a-million.

[Bojack Horseman]

With Trump as unpopular as he is, I can see Democrats holding their own and winning Nevada, and that's about it. Just makes it that much easier to win the Senate in 2020.

[Figueira]

I don't get why people think Arizona is impossible.

[Rjjr77]

I don't get why people think Arizona is impossible.

I don't think it is "impossible" difficult sure, I think holding all their seats is more unlikely

[peterthlee]

10% at this moment, and if Trump continues to be off-track, 30% by election day.
If Trump revives and abides by political conventions, thus taking jobs back, then <1%.

[Ronnie]

With Trump as unpopular as he is, I can see Democrats holding their own and winning Nevada, and that's about it. Just makes it that much easier to win the Senate in 2020.

I don't see any seats Democrats can win in 2020 aside from IA and CO.  So they basically have to gain at least one seat in 2018 to be even have a shot at controlling the chamber before 2024.

[🕴🏼Melior🕴🏼]

Even if the Democrats carry NV and AZ and retain all of their current seats, the senate would be split 50-50, and the GOP would still control the senate due to Mike Pence being the tiebreaker. The Democrats need to net gain 3 seats in order to take back the Senatec

[Adam Griffin]

Just to illustrate how unlikely it is, here's a scenario where we take the previous cycle's (2012) Democratic Senate totals and stack them up against the most recent mid-term Senate cycle's (2010 or 2014) GOP totals for that state: effectively, what would happen in 2018 if you had presidential Democratic turnout against midterm GOP turnout.

It's a pickup of five seats. Two of the pickups are won with less than 50% of the vote.



Said route involves holding everything plus going through Texas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Nevada and Arizona. LOL.


In contrast, here's what the House would look like with 2014/2016 as the GOP/Dem metrics: