NJ-Quinnipiac: Democrat has 16-point lead

[JA]

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/nj/nj01312017_Nm92pbd.pdf/

45% - Murphy (D)
29% - Guadagno (R)
22% - Undecided

% Democratic advantage...
-66% - Republicans
+75% - Democrats
+10% - Independents
+03% - Men
+29% - Women
+13% - Whites with a college degree
-01% - Whites without a college degree
+22% - 18-34 year olds
+27% - 35-49 year olds
+14% - 50-64 year olds
+08% - 65+ year olds
-04% - White Men
+16% - White Women
+06% - Whites
+40% - Non-Whites

[MAINEiac4434]

Damn near "safe-D" territory if not already. Christie and Trump are major drags on Guadagno and I don't know of any NJ GOPers who can stop that.

[LabourJersey]

I'm kind of surprised by 61% of new jerseyans not knowing Guadagno well, but maybe more surprised by 70% not knowing much about Murphy, who has been on the air for months at this point.

Also this is Likely D, and possibly Safe D by the summer

[houseonaboat]

I'm kind of surprised by 61% of new jerseyans not knowing Guadagno well, but maybe more surprised by 70% not knowing much about Murphy, who has been on the air for months at this point.

Also this is Likely D, and possibly Safe D by the summer

It's safe D unless Ciattarelli wins the primary imo

[Skye]

Likely D to Safe D at this point, really. Dunno why anyone would rate this race as anything less.

[Jeppe]

Is such a huge gender gap normal in NJ? 26 points sounds like it's a bit too much.

[KingSweden]

Is such a huge gender gap normal in NJ? 26 points sounds like it's a bit too much.

Seems big to me too. The partisan gender gap *is* becoming more pronounced, though

[UncleSam]

Lots of undecided voters + bizarre gender gap (there's no way in hell there's anything close to a 26 point gap on election night) make this a questionable poll, but this race is mostly over regardless.

The final margin won't be 16 in all likelihood though; I'd guess 8-10 point D win when all is said and done. NJ in an off year is just not that Democratic a state.

Bad poll, right result more or less

[Suburbia]

Usually, New Jerseyans pay more attention to politics after Labor Day and the BBQs. It is Likely D/Safe D unless something bad comes against Murphy or Wisniewski. There is rumors from Wikileaks about Phil Murphy's tenure as Ambassador to Germany under the Obama years. It is Likely/Safe D.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/07/dnc_2016_murphy_is_no_stranger_to_wikileaks_the_au.html

Kim Guadagno may be this year's Barbara Buono. Sacrificial lambs.

[Suburbia]

If Guadagno is losing badly like this and still wins the GOP nomination, she could drag down a lot of Republicans with her, like Sen. Jennifer Beck. She has a good legislative district ticket in NJ LD11, where Hillary Clinton won 51.74% to 45.03%.