What events/issues will likely effect Florida 2020 results?

[SCNCmod]

Since I think low turnout wasn't a deciding factor in 2016, what is likely to change (or what issues will like effect) the result in Florida in 2020? (and who do you think will win FL ... Trump or Dem)

I know Puerto Rico Latino's are growing every year (who lean Dem), but not sure if that number is high enough to effect the outcome?

[Figueira]

Since I think low turnout wasn't a deciding factor in 2016, what is likely to change (or what issues will like effect) the result in Florida in 2020? (and who do you think will win FL ... Trump or Dem)

I know Puerto Rico Latino's are growing every year (who lean Dem), but not sure if that number is high enough to effect the outcome?

Clinton won the Lower Peninsula. Trump won the white vote in New Hampshire. There is no group too small to swing an election.

[SCNCmod]

Obamacare repeal status would seem to be important given the number of low income people in the state.

I think another big factor will be demographic changes.

Florida never expanded Medicaid though. The house voted in favor but the Senate killed it.

Oh, tbh - I'm not sure how this works as I just get my health insurance through my employer.  Does that mean literally no-one in Florida would be impacted?

Doesn't mean no one is affected... but not nearly as much as states that accepted medicaid expansion.  (what that did was essentially raised the income limit for people who qualified for medicaid.  So if Obamacare is repealed- there is a good chance many who gained medicaid due to the raised income limit... would then lose medicaid coverage)

[MeanBeanMachine]

Florida has always been a few points to the right of center and will always be a few points to the right of center.  I know Democrats would love to think otherwise but the reality just isn't there.  They've been talking about it since 1992.  Granted Florida will likely vote for the winner, but with all things being equal it's very hard for Democrats to win here.  It also trended back to the right last year.  The sunshine state will be very competitive but to think it's going to be a Democrat state in our life times is just wishful Democrat thinking.  Their party thought the same thing about Arizona and Georgia last year too which was very out of touch.  In fact Democrats may want to think about whether or not they want to continue to compete in North Carolina.  They put their heart and souls into the Tar Heel state and weren't even competitive there.  North Carolina's trend was only another 0.15% to the left which isn't really a trend.  With the efforts Democrats put into that state, there's no excuse for it to not trend a couple more points to the left.  Had Clinton put as much effort into Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, she'd be president.  I would predict a double digit win for Republicans in North Carolina if neither party competed there as well.  It's not trending like Virginia has.  There was a time in the late 2000's where North Carolina did shift.  It's now a light red state and unless Democrats can win by 6 or more nationally, they can kiss North Carolina goodbye.