My top 20 most likely Democratic presidential nominees in 2020

[Suburbia]

Here is my list of the top 20 most likely Democratic presidential candidates in 2020, as of March 2017. Obviously, this is to change as political circumstances change every day. Here is my top 20 likely nominees, with potential consensus candidates in the case of a potential brokered convention at the 2020 Democratic Nat'l Convention.

1. Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ)
2. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
3. Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)
4. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
5. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
6. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D-NY)
7. Ex.-Secretary of State and Former First Lady Hillary Clinton (D-NY) (she may want to run to redeem herself)
8. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)
9. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
10. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO)
11. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI)
12. Activist and journalist Shaun King
13. Ex.-Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander (D-MO)
14. Ex.-New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I-NY)
15. Sen. Al Franken (D-MN)
16. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM)
17. Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT)
18. Ex.-Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D-MT)
19. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
20. Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO)

Potential consensus candidates in a brokered convention: Actress, journalist, businesswoman Oprah Winfrey, former Vice President Joe Biden, former First Lady Michelle Obama, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), activist Jimmy Dore, Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA), comedian and actress Rosie O'Donnell, Ex.-Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD), Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), Sen. Tammy Baldwin, Ex.-New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson (D-NY), Ex.-New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn (D-NY), Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA), Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo, former Vermont Gov. and former DNC chair Howard Dean, Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, Disney CEO Bob Iger, Dallas Mavericks CEO Mark Cuban, liberal journalist Amy Goodman, liberal journalist Ed Schultz.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Shaun King (#12) has a better shot of becoming the nominee than Gavin Newsom?

[Suburbia]

Shaun King (#12) has a better shot of becoming the nominee than Gavin Newsom?

I think so because Democrats may not want another scandalous male like Bill Clinton, John Edwards. Newsom had an affair with his friend's wife, or something. Shaun King can mobilize the anger of the Democratic Party's minority base, I think. If he runs. However, Newsom is a consensus candidate. I almost forgot putting him on the list. Thank you for reminding me.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I'm not sure an affair would tank him in this kind of environment. Bill Clinton was accused of having affairs during the 92' election and since Trump will likely be the nominee I don't think it'll be as effective of an attack line as some people might think.

Plus Shaun King would give off a strong Rachel Dolezal vibe to a lot of people.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden doesn’t make your list?  I agree he’s probably too old to run again, but same with Sanders.  In both cases, they *might* end up running, and if they do, they might win.

I agree with Booker and Warren being the top two.  I’d flip the order between them, but having Booker ahead is a perfectly defensible position.  I’d also agree with Gillibrand and Sanders also being in the top 5, but can’t agree on Cuomo being that high.  Too much of the party is unlikely to ever take to him.

My top five most likely nominees would probably be…

1 Warren
2 Booker
3 Sanders
4 Gillibrand
5 ummmm…..tough one…..maybe Harris?

I would put either Brown, Franken, or Biden in the #5 slot if I thought they were more likely to run.

[Suburbia]

Biden doesn’t make your list?  I agree he’s probably too old to run again, but same with Sanders.  In both cases, they *might* end up running, and if they do, they might win.

I agree with Booker and Warren being the top two.  I’d flip the order between them, but having Booker ahead is a perfectly defensible position.  I’d also agree with Gillibrand and Sanders also being in the top 5, but can’t agree on Cuomo being that high.  Too much of the party is unlikely to ever take to him.

My top five most likely nominees would probably be…

1 Warren
2 Booker
3 Sanders
4 Gillibrand
5 ummmm…..tough one…..maybe Harris?

I would put either Brown, Franken, or Biden in the #5 slot if I thought they were more likely to run.

Biden would be a consensus choice. Poor Gov. Cuomo. What did he do so wrong? He's the governor of one of America's most iconic states.

[Rjjr77]

Gonna be hard for MCaskill to run after she loses in '18

[Rjjr77]

Biden doesn’t make your list?  I agree he’s probably too old to run again, but same with Sanders.  In both cases, they *might* end up running, and if they do, they might win.

I agree with Booker and Warren being the top two.  I’d flip the order between them, but having Booker ahead is a perfectly defensible position.  I’d also agree with Gillibrand and Sanders also being in the top 5, but can’t agree on Cuomo being that high.  Too much of the party is unlikely to ever take to him.

My top five most likely nominees would probably be…

1 Warren
2 Booker
3 Sanders
4 Gillibrand
5 ummmm…..tough one…..maybe Harris?

I would put either Brown, Franken, or Biden in the #5 slot if I thought they were more likely to run.

Biden would be a consensus choice. Poor Gov. Cuomo. What did he do so wrong? He's the governor of one of America's most iconic states.

 Poor Gov. Cuomo. What did he do so wrong? He's the governor of one of America's most iconic corrupt states.

[🕴🏼Melior🕴🏼]

I think the Democratic nominee will be someone who hasn't even been discussed on this board yet. I think someone will come out of nowhere and shock the world by becoming Democratic nominee.

No one would've guessed that Obama would be the Democratic nominee in 2005. And nobody would've guessed that Donald f****** Trump would be the Republican nominee in in 2013. It's silly trying to guess the nominee this early.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Yikes... Why in the world is Shaun King ahead of Al Franken and Sherrod Brown?

[Mr. Morden]

No one would've guessed that Obama would be the Democratic nominee in 2005. And nobody would've guessed that Donald f****** Trump would be the Republican nominee in in 2013. It's silly trying to guess the nominee this early.

Most people (at least, most political nerds like us) would have put Obama in a top 20 list in 2005.  He was widely expected to be a strong contender to be president one day, it's just that most thought he'd more likely wait until 2012 or 2016.  But he was certainly in the conversation as being on the long list for 2008, even three years in advance.  Here's what Tradesports was saying in August 2005, for example:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=27332.msg612321#msg612321

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And Clinton 2016, Romney 2012, and McCain 2008 were all in the top two in betting markets more than three years before they were nominated.  Trump was far more of a surprise, but it's usually not like that.  More often than not, if you're paying attention to who's dropping clues about wanting to run, you can make a half decent list of who's most likely to run, and pick out the handful of people with the best chance of winning the nomination, more than three years in advance.  Certainly, with a top 20 list, you have a very strong chance of having the winner in there somewhere, moreso than if you weren't paying any attention at all and just listed current and former senators and governors at random.

[Rjjr77]

I think the Democratic nominee will be someone who hasn't even been discussed on this board yet. I think someone will come out of nowhere and shock the world by becoming Democratic nominee.

No one would've guessed that Obama would be the Democratic nominee in 2005. And nobody would've guessed that Donald f****** Trump would be the Republican nominee in in 2013. It's silly trying to guess the nominee this early.

In fairness both were on the radar, they weren't favorites but they'd have made a real top 20 list

[Figueira]

Top 5 for me.

1. Cory Booker
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Julian Castro
4. Kirsten Gillibran
5. Andrew Cuomo

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think the Democratic nominee will be someone who hasn't even been discussed on this board yet. I think someone will come out of nowhere and shock the world by becoming Democratic nominee.

No one would've guessed that Obama would be the Democratic nominee in 2005. And nobody would've guessed that Donald f****** Trump would be the Republican nominee in in 2013. It's silly trying to guess the nominee this early.

I don't know why but I can't shake this feeling that Steve Bullock is the one to do that. No one talks about him but his resume is really good to be the anti-Trump (has to work with the opposing party, most popular governor in the country, fought CU as AG, pushed anti-Donor laws, passed gay marriage laws, an uses public land for public use ala Teddy as his progressive basis) which in turn also makes him a great fit for Iowa which has been a king maker for dems in recent elections.

[Suburbia]

I added JBE.

[7,052,770]

Pretty good list, but Shaun King (a white who pretends to be black just like that woman from Spokane) wouldn't get 10% in any primary state and would lose to Trump 535-3. Hell, I'm as liberal and anti-Trump as they come, and I'd vote Trump over that charlatan.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Lol, Christine Quinn as a consensus candidate. Who would vote for her 7 people? That'd be worse than the GOP establishment handpicked Jeb Bush

[President Johnson]

Most likely (my top-ten in this category; not favorites).

1. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) (I hope not she is on the ticket)
2. Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ)
3. Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT)
4. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)
5. Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)
6. Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA)
7. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
8. Sen. Al Franken (D-MN)
9.Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
10. Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO)

[LLR]

Any list including de Blasio and Bloomberg should probably include Klobuchar, significantly above them.

[Mr. Morden]

Any list including de Blasio and Bloomberg should probably include Klobuchar, significantly above them.

Including Bloomberg at all seems ridiculous.  The man will be 78 years old in 2020, is not a Democrat, and has previously only made noises about running for prez 3rd party.  (Though, having Shaun King on there is weirder.)  de Blasio does make sense to include in a top 20 list, since he has dropped hints of interest, but yeah, #6 is too high a spot on the list for him.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Most likely:

1. Senator Booker
2. Senator Warren
3. Senator Harris
4. Senator Sanders
5. Governor Cuomo (yuck)

If I had to put money on it though, none of these people will win it.

[Suburbia]

Lol, Christine Quinn as a consensus candidate. Who would vote for her 7 people? That'd be worse than the GOP establishment handpicked Jeb Bush

Quinn is a lesbian, her story may appeal to female and LGBT voters. She has an aggressive tone that could appeal to Democrats.

[Rjjr77]

Any list including de Blasio and Bloomberg should probably include Klobuchar, significantly above them.

OP has heavy NYC bias

[SCNCmod]

1. Sen. Cory Booker
2. Sen. Elizabeth Warren
5. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand
4. Julian Castro
5. Brian Schatz
6. Sen. Amy Klobuchar
7. Gov. Steve Bullock
8. Sen. Sherrod Brown
9. Gov. John Hickenlooper
10. Gov. Andrew Cuomo