2016 with no foreign interference, post maps

[Mr. Morden]

Trump/Pence (R) 279
Clinton/Kaine (D) 259

Given the margin Trump carried PA by, I don't think he'd have lost that.  Something was going on there that transcended our courtesy peek into the souls of Hillary, Podesta, Palmeiri, et al.

%age-wise, the margin in Wisconsin was bigger.  Pennsylvania was only a bigger margin in raw vote #s because it's a bigger state population-wise, and hence more people voted.

[Mr. Morden]

Before Comey's interference, Clinton was ahead of Donald Trump nationally by an average of around 5 points. After Comey's interference, Hillary's nationwide polling average dropped to around a 2 point lead. Her polling average dropped by around 3 points nationwide after Comey.

But how much of that was Clinton dropping as opposed to Trump gaining at the expense of Johnson and Undecided?  What's unclear to me is how much movement from Johnson and Undecided to Trump was going to happen as the election approached regardless of what campaign events were occurring.