Puerto Rico status referendum - June 11

[SoLongAtlas]

The commonwealth option got fewer votes than statehood in the last referendum, so it's clear that Puerto Rico doesn't support it.

Nothing is clear until the votes are cast this time, not last time.  Not giving voters the option to keep the status quo seems just wrong, to me.  No change should be an option.

The reason it was added back in is because the GOP Congress and Trump WH do not want PR statehood which would require a massive bailout of the island to the tune of over $70 billion. Even if it did pass with 50+%, Congress would still not vote on it due to the debt issue. My guess is that if statehood does get 50+ in the ref, the only way PR becomes a state is if a Dem House takes it up starting in 2019 if they take it back. The Senate will still be Rep so it would necessitate a compromise.

[SoLongAtlas]

The Puerto Rican government has declared a sort of bankruptcy. The island's economy is now officially shot. Congress doesn't give a hoot.

It's totally absurd and very sad how this has all played out. Why can't Congress help these people? They are Americans ffs. This is the problem I have with territory/other status(es). Either make them a state and give them the benefits of one, or cut them loose.

Instead, Congress puts the Island through economic hell with savage austerity measures (eg, doing something we have seen time and time again completely fail elsewhere in the world)

At this point, Congress needs further action or we will see and hear the "Viva la Revolucion" types and riots in the streets in PR. This might be enough to shift the ref in favor of independence.

[SoLongAtlas]

23rd Amendment has to be repealed - otherwise, that rump federal district ALSO gets 3 electoral votes.

I don't see a problem with that. It can always be legislated in some way to allocate those EVs to whichever party wins the popular vote. While it should be repealed if DC were made a state, I don't think it should hold up the process.

Basically.

Since the federal government controls the federal district, I think they can make a law about what happens to those EVs (e.g. they go to the popular vote winner, or the winner of all the other electoral votes, or they get ignored entirely, or whatever).

@Kamala, the Republicans would be mostly irrelevant in this scenario since the Democrats would need to have a trifecta to pass DC statehood in the first place.

Yes and no with strings. If DC ever becomes a state it would have its 3 electoral votes, 1 at-large rep and 2 senators but here's the kicker: Congress would still be within a new Federal Zone. The "district" of old would just encompass the trifecta of the Capital, WH, SCOTUS (maybe some other admin buildings). This has been talked about in the past.

[SoLongAtlas]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is how it could look, white is the new smaller district, red is the state  The DC Statehood Coalition has proposed this http://www.dcstatehoodcoalition.org/why-and-how-of-the-51st-state/path-to-the-51st-state/

[SoLongAtlas]

Map in detail, showing boundary lines http://www.dcstatehoodcoalition.org/app/download/757863833/NewColumbia_StateMap1.pdf

[SoLongAtlas]

Again with the referendum with more than two options! If you're not going to allow a ranked choice here (which given the various issues is at least understandable), it should be a binary choice, with one option being the status quo. If one option (statehood most likely) wins without a majority, we have the exact same mess as last time!

They originally had it as statehood or status quo but Bureagard and Trump made them change it back.

[SoLongAtlas]

Again with the referendum with more than two options! If you're not going to allow a ranked choice here (which given the various issues is at least understandable), it should be a binary choice, with one option being the status quo. If one option (statehood most likely) wins without a majority, we have the exact same mess as last time!

They originally had it as statehood or status quo but Bureagard and Trump made them change it back.

That is not correct. It was the "status quo" option which was omitted and pushed back in by the Justice Department.

Yeah you're right still early. It is Statehood/independence, free association/Commonwealth again. Trump's admin didn't want like 90% statehood which is what it would be under the two option scenario.

[SoLongAtlas]

The GOP will say it wasn't legit due to low turnout and the boycott. I would put money on Trump tweeting as much with a Sad! or Bad! addon.

[SoLongAtlas]

Yeah, but this will go NOWHERE, right ?

Cannot imagine the Republicans accepting statehood for PR - even if it votes 90% for statehood with 80% turnout ...

You know that the GOP platform supports Puerto Rican statehood, right?  And that it is the island's conservative party that pushes for statehood?

Congressional Republicans will rebuff this because PR is $70 billion in debt and not an English speaking territory. Most Republican voters probably think PR is it's own country so there's that as well.

[SoLongAtlas]

"Update: 6/11/2017 3:45PM
53% of the vote is in and Statehood is winning with 97% still. Turnout is slowly increasing to 23%."

[SoLongAtlas]

Why is statehood even being considered given their financial situation?

Last best hope for solvency as well as the Governor wanting a final fix to the territorial problem.

[SoLongAtlas]

Yeah, but this will go NOWHERE, right ?

Cannot imagine the Republicans accepting statehood for PR - even if it votes 90% for statehood with 80% turnout ...

You know that the GOP platform supports Puerto Rican statehood, right?  And that it is the island's conservative party that pushes for statehood?

Congressional Republicans will rebuff this because PR is $70 billion in debt and not an English speaking territory. Most Republican voters probably think PR is it's own country so there's that as well.

Case in point example https://twitter.com/ROCKONDUDE2/status/873885637723738113

[SoLongAtlas]

The comments on the predictit market for this are hilarious.


bgbigtymer
30 minutes ago
This is African dictator level of percentages. How is pdp going to spin this

[SoLongAtlas]

@At this point most of the Republicans would want to cut them loose. That is the majority opinion on Twitter as well as the various hell no and moochers comments. Almost Roman if you think about it. You will be ruled and like it!

[SoLongAtlas]

Apparently the plan is to elect senators and congressmen anyway to send to DC and force a vote. I can see the current crop of reps actually arresting them if they try to do a protest, vote in, etc.

[SoLongAtlas]

Apparently the plan is to elect senators and congressmen anyway to send to DC and force a vote. I can see the current crop of reps actually arresting them if they try to do a protest, vote in, etc.

But to even debate statehood, if I understand correctly, they also need to draft a State Constitution - something they haven't done (to my knowledge).

From the wiki citing WaPo but the article has been deleted.

"At approximately the same time as the referendum, Puerto Rico's legislators are also expected to vote on a bill that would allow the Governor to draft a state constitution and hold elections to choose senators and representatives to the federal Congress. Regardless of the outcome of the referendum..."

[SoLongAtlas]

But would GOP senators be so willing to add two more Dem senators? It would be 52 Rep. 48 Dem. 2 Ind (caucus Dem).

[SoLongAtlas]

"Last week, Governor Rosselló signed a law intended to force Congress to act. He will appoint five representatives and two senators who will essentially show up in Washington and request to take their seats. Known as the Tennessee Plan, it worked there in 1796."

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/06/11/us/puerto-ricans-vote-on-the-question-of-statehood.html