IL-Anzalone Liszt Grove (D): Rauner trails Generic Democrat by a lot

[heatcharger]

Link.

Generic Democrat 47%
Rauner 32%

Take this poll with a tiny grain of salt for obvious reasons. No such generic D exists and especially not in Illinois, but Rauner seems to have an uphill fight in front of him.

[Gass3268]

He's going to get, rightfully, Kirked. 

[The Other Castro]

Neverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr call a race based on a party or internal poll.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Obviously a very dubious poll, but this race is Lean D for sure. I don't think he will be as easy to beat as Kirk or lose by a Blanching margin, though.

[peterthlee]

Obviously a very dubious poll, but this race is Lean D for sure. I don't think he will be as easy to beat as Kirk or lose by a Blanching margin, though.

I'd rank it as likely D, safe D (strong Dem gain) if Dems further consolidate their electoral base. Rauner could be pounced by an overwhelming margin.

[OneJ]

He's going to get, rightfully, Kirked. 

Lol.

[Maxwell]

Neverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr call a race based on a party or internal poll.

you right.


Nevertheless lololol

of course Generic Democrat is a really great candidate who is hard to come by - I doubt Kennedy, Pitzker or anyone else will be able to replicate that level of success.

[Donerail]

Take this poll with a tiny grain of salt for obvious reasons. No such generic D exists and especially not in Illinois, but Rauner seems to have an uphill fight in front of him.

That said, Chris Kennedy probably comes close, given that his whole profile is "rich guy from a famous Democratic family"

[Figueira]

Obviously a very dubious poll, but this race is Lean D for sure. I don't think he will be as easy to beat as Kirk or lose by a Blanching margin, though.

I agree, although I have to say I didn't expect Kirk to either, at least befire the Thailand thing.

[KingSweden]

Neverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr call a race based on a party or internal poll.

[windjammer]

Obviously a very dubious poll, but this race is Lean D for sure. I don't think he will be as easy to beat as Kirk or lose by a Blanching margin, though.

[windjammer]

The problem for Rauner is that in order to win he will have to appeal to his base that is very pro Trump and to swing suburban voters that are very anti Trump. I don't see how he could run a campaign appealing to both. So I think he will lose

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Obviously a very dubious poll, but this race is Lean D for sure. I don't think he will be as easy to beat as Kirk or lose by a Blanching margin, though.

I agree, although I have to say I didn't expect Kirk to either, at least befire the Thailand thing.

The Thiland thing may have gotten a lot of coverage, especially with HRC switching their endorsement over it, but at that point in the election people have basically made up their minds. Without it, the result probably only changes to Duckworth +10.

[Gass3268]

The problem for Rauner is that in order to win he will have to appeal to his base that is very pro Trump and to swing suburban voters that are very anti Trump. I don't see how he could run a campaign appealing to both. So I think he will lose

Yeah, interestingly enough Duckworth did better than Clinton when it comes to geography.

[Xing]

I mean, it's Illinois, and Rauner isn't popular. What did people expect?

[Figueira]

Neverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr call a race based on a party or internal poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump being in office has had a negative effect on Illinois and Rauner, Dold and Mark Kirk has felt the effect of it.

Chris Kennedy will win this race.  Quinn was a weak candidate from the beginning in 2014.

[Skye]

I mean, it's Illinois, and Rauner isn't popular. What did people expect?

Pretty much this. We'll have to wait until next year to see if Rauner's approval recover.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Neverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr call a race based on a party or internal poll.

you right.


Nevertheless lololol

of course Generic Democrat is a really great candidate who is hard to come by - I doubt Kennedy, Pitzker or anyone else will be able to replicate that level of success.

Especially in Illinois. You'll be hard pressed to find a state Democratic Party worse than the Illinois Dems.

[Maxwell]

Neverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr call a race based on a party or internal poll.

you right.


Nevertheless lololol

of course Generic Democrat is a really great candidate who is hard to come by - I doubt Kennedy, Pitzker or anyone else will be able to replicate that level of success.

Especially in Illinois. You'll be hard pressed to find a state Democratic Party worse than the Illinois Dems.

Alabama? Florida? Tennessee? South Carolina? Idk there seems to be quite a few.

[Figueira]

Ha, I love how "Kirked" is a word now.

I don't think it's likely that Rauner loses by the same margin as Kirk, but it's possible.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

So this is a Leans D race from the start, but this poll doesn't change that.

Anyway, in my mind, Rauner's challenge was never to get elected. It was always to get re-elected and force the legislature to redistrict the state legislative districts in a non-partisan manner and then implement his reforms in 2020 and onward having broken the back of Michael Madigan's machine.

If he can't get re-elected, he will likely have accomplished nothing of note.

[Adam Griffin]

The problem for Rauner is that in order to win he will have to appeal to his base that is very pro Trump and to swing suburban voters that are very anti Trump. I don't see how he could run a campaign appealing to both. So I think he will lose

Yeah, interestingly enough Duckworth did better than Clinton when it comes to geography.

Wow, I just looked at that.

Calhoun County: Jesus Christ.