Which Democrat is most likely to WIN the primaries and general election?

[Blue3]

This is NOT "who would you support."


Who is most likely to actually WIN the Democratic primaries and general election?


(and if this list is somehow, someway, missing your favorite candidate... well, they likely don't have much of a chance if they're not on this list )





I voted:


1. Oprah

2. Bernie

3. Warren

4. Biden

5. Sherrod

6. Murphy

7. Michelle (and I know she's not running)

[Mr. Smith]

WI: Ashley Judd for teh shigoos.

[houseonaboat]

I feel like you didn't offer enough choices in this poll.

[MeanBeanMachine]

There's a former Democrat not on this list who is most likely to win.  He's a billionaire from New York and currently holds a job as commander in chief.

[LLR]

I like "Jospeph Kennedy"

[Mr. Morden]

You mean conditional on them running in the first place or not?  E.g., *if* Joe Biden runs, he has a good chance of winning the nomination and the presidency, but if I was betting on "winning individual", then I might not include him in the top 7, just because I don't think he's as likely to run as some of the others.  So would I vote for him in this poll or not?

[Shadows]

Why are people voting for Oprah? Another neo liberal uber rich celeb with no govt experience or knowledge or good policy positions that we know of.

Do people want to turn the Dem party into the clown show that the GOP is with Trump ?

[Blue3]

You mean conditional on them running in the first place or not?  E.g., *if* Joe Biden runs, he has a good chance of winning the nomination and the presidency, but if I was betting on "winning individual", then I might not include him in the top 7, just because I don't think he's as likely to run as some of the others.  So would I vote for him in this poll or not?

I allowed multiple options for just this reason. You may include him.

Why are people voting for Oprah? Another neo liberal uber rich celeb with no govt experience or knowledge or good policy positions that we know of.

Do people want to turn the Dem party into the clown show that the GOP is with Trump ?

As I said, this isn't about who you want... it's about who would win.

[Mr. Morden]

You mean conditional on them running in the first place or not?  E.g., *if* Joe Biden runs, he has a good chance of winning the nomination and the presidency, but if I was betting on "winning individual", then I might not include him in the top 7, just because I don't think he's as likely to run as some of the others.  So would I vote for him in this poll or not?

I allowed multiple options for just this reason. You may include him.

But what I’m saying is, I’m unclear on what question is even being asked.  There are two different numbers for each candidate:

-What is the probability that this candidate will run?
-*If* they were to run, what would be the probability that they would win?

And then there’s a third number, which is the overall probability that they’ll be elected.  That third number is the product of the first two numbers, since in order to be elected, you first have to run.  So I might think someone would have a great chance of being elected if they run, say 60%.  So if we were doing “power rankings”—how strong is this candidate?  They’d easily be in my top 7.  However, if I think that this person is very unlikely to run…say, 1% chance of running….then their probability of being elected is only 0.01*0.60 = 0.6%.  And so then, no, they’re not in my top 7 on “winning individual” in gambling-speak.  So that’s why I’m wondering if the question being asked here is “power rankings” or “winning individual”.

[publicunofficial]

Whoever Sanders endorses

[Blue3]

You mean conditional on them running in the first place or not?  E.g., *if* Joe Biden runs, he has a good chance of winning the nomination and the presidency, but if I was betting on "winning individual", then I might not include him in the top 7, just because I don't think he's as likely to run as some of the others.  So would I vote for him in this poll or not?

I allowed multiple options for just this reason. You may include him.

But what I’m saying is, I’m unclear on what question is even being asked.  There are two different numbers for each candidate:

-What is the probability that this candidate will run?
-*If* they were to run, what would be the probability that they would win?

And then there’s a third number, which is the overall probability that they’ll be elected.  That third number is the product of the first two numbers, since in order to be elected, you first have to run.  So I might think someone would have a great chance of being elected if they run, say 60%.  So if we were doing “power rankings”—how strong is this candidate?  They’d easily be in my top 7.  However, if I think that this person is very unlikely to run…say, 1% chance of running….then their probability of being elected is only 0.01*0.60 = 0.6%.  And so then, no, they’re not in my top 7 on “winning individual” in gambling-speak.  So that’s why I’m wondering if the question being asked here is “power rankings” or “winning individual”.

I already answered... you're really overthinking.

If they were to run (which is true for everyone at this early stage), who would win both primaries and GE? Your top 7 choices (though you can choose less if you want).

[RINO Tom]

Tim McGraw, obviously.

[American2020]

I'd go with a ticket Steve Bullock-Amy Klobuchar

[SCNCmod]

From the Bernie wing (Warren, Sherrod Brown, Bernie, Gabbard, etc) ... I think Sherrod Brown is far and away the 1 that would be most likely to win the Primary... and definitely the General.

Of the rest of the Candidates, the most likely to win the primary & general is probably Castro or maybe Booker...although this side is much harder to predict this far out... and will depend much more on how the various candidates resonant over the next 2 years & how they do in the primary (who rises to the occasion, who connects with early state voters, who inspires millennials, etc)

[Vosem]

This list is ridiculous and I'm not going to go through it, but the answer is, probably Cory Booker, maybe Bernie Sanders. The last Democratic nominee who wasn't the prevailing choice of African-Americans was Michael Dukakis in 1988. Sanders has a strong coalition, and if anyone would be the one to break that rule, it would be him; but I wouldn't bet on it.

[Beet]

Tulsi Gabbard is most likely to win the Democratic primary, and since winning the primary is a prerequisite for winning the GE, she is also most likely to win the GE. Jeff Merkley has a good chance as well, as he has the right stances, but I don't know how well he would be as a national politician since I have not seen him on the front pages before.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Clinton, Booker, Biden, Sanders, Winfrey. Not necessarily in that order.

[Mr. Morden]

Tulsi Gabbard is most likely to win the Democratic primary, and since winning the primary is a prerequisite for winning the GE, she is also most likely to win the GE. Jeff Merkley has a good chance as well, as he has the right stances, but I don't know how well he would be as a national politician since I have not seen him on the front pages before.

So you've downgraded the chances of Terry McAuliffe? 

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Jason Kander. This guy makes me fall in love with him every time I see him.

[Beet]

Tulsi Gabbard is most likely to win the Democratic primary, and since winning the primary is a prerequisite for winning the GE, she is also most likely to win the GE. Jeff Merkley has a good chance as well, as he has the right stances, but I don't know how well he would be as a national politician since I have not seen him on the front pages before.

So you've downgraded the chances of Terry McAuliffe? 

Just covering my bets, lord knows you gave me enough sh_t about the Sarah Palin prediction!

[Mr. Morden]

Tulsi Gabbard is most likely to win the Democratic primary, and since winning the primary is a prerequisite for winning the GE, she is also most likely to win the GE. Jeff Merkley has a good chance as well, as he has the right stances, but I don't know how well he would be as a national politician since I have not seen him on the front pages before.

So you've downgraded the chances of Terry McAuliffe? 

Just covering my bets, lord knows you gave me enough sh_t about the Sarah Palin prediction!

Ha, that was only because you were so sure about it that you questioned why I was even bothering to post information about what other potential candidates were doing.  As long as people don't question why I post things, I will leave them in peace. 

[Moortje]

Sanders, Warren, and Gabbard. I find Tulsi especially interesting, and someone who has a lot of potential in the "Bernie lane" of the Democratic party. I dunno, I just hope that enough young people will have aged into the voting pool by 2020 to prevent the party from hoisting another corporatist on us. Thanks to that dessicated husk of a party, I had to vote for Hillary Clinton in a desperate attempt to stave off the disaster we are now living through...I don't want to have to hold my nose like that again!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sherrod Brown, Julian Castro and Tulsi Gabbard

[Blue3]

Is this list still complete?

[Mr. Morden]

Is this list still complete?

Garcetti, Iger, Schultz, and Moulton all have to be added now.

And even Feingold, since he visited Iowa.