Nate Silver talks politics with Mark Cuban
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Author Topic: Nate Silver talks politics with Mark Cuban  (Read 1368 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: March 07, 2017, 02:27:41 PM »

Here's Atlas forum goldenboy Nate Silver chatting with our next president:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nate-silver-and-mark-cuban-talk-a-lot-of-politics-and-a-little-basketball/
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reidmill
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« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2017, 02:30:47 PM »


I don't recall Nate being the golden boy during the general. Everybody thought he was overestimating Trump for clicks.

Boy were we wrong lol.

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2017, 02:31:32 PM »


I don't recall Nate being the golden boy during the general. Everybody thought he was overestimating Trump for clicks.

Sarcasm, my friend.
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reidmill
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« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2017, 02:47:53 PM »


I don't recall Nate being the golden boy during the general. Everybody thought he was overestimating Trump for clicks.

Sarcasm, my friend.


Might I suggest adding an "/s" to your internet vocabulary?

Anyways, Cuban seemed to be indicating in this interview that, if he ran, he'd run as an independent and not a Democrat.

Interesting...
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jfern
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« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2017, 05:38:43 PM »


I don't recall Nate being the golden boy during the general. Everybody thought he was overestimating Trump for clicks.

Boy were we wrong lol.

I think you missed this article.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/
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reidmill
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« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2017, 05:45:55 PM »


I don't recall Nate being the golden boy during the general. Everybody thought he was overestimating Trump for clicks.

Boy were we wrong lol.

I think you missed this article.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

Didn't he later admit that he was wrong, apologize, and adjust his models after the GOP primaries?

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jfern
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« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2017, 05:52:57 PM »


I don't recall Nate being the golden boy during the general. Everybody thought he was overestimating Trump for clicks.

Boy were we wrong lol.

I think you missed this article.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

Didn't he later admit that he was wrong, apologize, and adjust his models after the GOP primaries?

Well, the 538 articles on the primary were terrible. Endorsement points were supposed to be important, but Trump won with barely any, and Bernie got 45% of the vote with a similar amount. Webb was supposed to be the anti Hillary. All pretty laughable.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2017, 06:04:15 PM »


I don't recall Nate being the golden boy during the general. Everybody thought he was overestimating Trump for clicks.

Boy were we wrong lol.

I think you missed this article.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

Didn't he later admit that he was wrong, apologize, and adjust his models after the GOP primaries?



He had no model at the time he wrote that article.  Because early polling for primaries is so haphazard, 538 didn't roll out a model for the primaries until January 2016, by which point Silver had shifted his thinking to "OK, maybe Trump will win after all".
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reidmill
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« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2017, 06:13:17 PM »


I don't recall Nate being the golden boy during the general. Everybody thought he was overestimating Trump for clicks.

Boy were we wrong lol.

I think you missed this article.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

Didn't he later admit that he was wrong, apologize, and adjust his models after the GOP primaries?



He had no model at the time he wrote that article.  Because early polling for primaries is so haphazard, 538 didn't roll out a model for the primaries until January 2016, by which point Silver had shifted his thinking to "OK, maybe Trump will win after all".


I just find it kind of funny how we all ripped on Nate for not taking Trump seriously during the primaries, and then we continued to rip on him after the primaries for admitting his mistakes and creating a model that took Trump more seriously during the general.

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Kringla Heimsins
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« Reply #9 on: March 07, 2017, 09:56:10 PM »

Nate Silver is a statistician, not a pundit. As Trump was absolutely unprecedented, it was very hard to predict his victory. Or rather, the only precedents were wackos such as Buchanan or Santorum, who never really took off.

Some disgruntled Trump supporters online call him "Nate Shillver" and even "Nate Copper". I find this hillarious.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #10 on: March 07, 2017, 11:21:53 PM »

Yeah, Silver changed his tune pretty thoroughly after Trump won NH and was on the Trump Train for the rest of the primaries even while some people on his staff were getting on the brokered convention train.
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uti2
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« Reply #11 on: March 08, 2017, 01:14:48 AM »

Nate Silver is a statistician, not a pundit. As Trump was absolutely unprecedented, it was very hard to predict his victory. Or rather, the only precedents were wackos such as Buchanan or Santorum, who never really took off.

Some disgruntled Trump supporters online call him "Nate Shillver" and even "Nate Copper". I find this hillarious.

Well, Nate admitted that he ignored pure stats in his early calculation r.e. Trump and took into account other factors. Presumably, the same was done with Bernie.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: March 08, 2017, 09:10:19 AM »

So all of you are going to use this thread to talk about Nate Silver?  No one cares about Mark Cuban.  Sad
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reidmill
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« Reply #13 on: March 08, 2017, 01:55:11 PM »

So all of you are going to use this thread to talk about Nate Silver?  No one cares about Mark Cuban.  Sad


Well, the vibe I got from the interview is that if Cuban were to run, he would want to run outside of the party establishments like Perot did in '92 and '96.

He doesn't see himself as Democrat or a Republican, but instead he see's himself as a true moderate. I think he might be able to muster up enough support to make it into the debates. Maybe even outperform Perot.
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Cathcon
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« Reply #14 on: March 08, 2017, 02:10:28 PM »


I don't recall Nate being the golden boy during the general. Everybody thought he was overestimating Trump for clicks.

Sarcasm, my friend.


Might I suggest adding an "/s" to your internet vocabulary?

This is absolutely unacceptable. Sarcasm detection is, and always has been, a gamble. Clarification destroys sarcasm's credibility and kills conversation.
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reidmill
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« Reply #15 on: March 08, 2017, 02:26:55 PM »


I don't recall Nate being the golden boy during the general. Everybody thought he was overestimating Trump for clicks.

Sarcasm, my friend.


Might I suggest adding an "/s" to your internet vocabulary?

This is absolutely unacceptable. Sarcasm detection is, and always has been, a gamble. Clarification destroys sarcasm's credibility and kills conversation.

In the real world people usually give off some sort of vocal indication as to wether or not they're being sarcastic. A sarcastic statement is meant to be understood as a sarcastic statement, not either or.

I also think it's pretty widely accepted that sarcasm doesn't work well on the internet.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2017, 12:32:16 AM »

More Cuban:

http://reason.com/blog/2017/03/12/at-sxsw-mark-cuban-calls-himself-a-liber

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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #17 on: March 13, 2017, 08:24:58 AM »

Cuban won't run as a Democrat. The idea of an Ayn Rand loving billionaire winning the Democratic nomination is hilarious.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #18 on: March 13, 2017, 04:53:44 PM »


I don't recall Nate being the golden boy during the general. Everybody thought he was overestimating Trump for clicks.

Sarcasm, my friend.


Might I suggest adding an "/s" to your internet vocabulary?

Anyways, Cuban seemed to be indicating in this interview that, if he ran, he'd run as an independent and not a Democrat.

Interesting...

He should run against Abbott as an independent instead.  Texas Democrats would quietly give him their blessing because if he wins, he can veto redistricting.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #19 on: March 16, 2017, 07:52:18 PM »


I don't recall Nate being the golden boy during the general. Everybody thought he was overestimating Trump for clicks.

Sarcasm, my friend.


Might I suggest adding an "/s" to your internet vocabulary?

Anyways, Cuban seemed to be indicating in this interview that, if he ran, he'd run as an independent and not a Democrat.

Interesting...

He should run against Abbott as an independent instead.  Texas Democrats would quietly give him their blessing because if he wins, he can veto redistricting.
Yeah, how'd that work out for Governor Kinky Friedman?
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