Election night in America 2018: Nuclear Elmo
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  Election night in America 2018: Nuclear Elmo
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Roblox
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« on: October 05, 2018, 04:16:16 PM »
« edited: October 07, 2018, 11:41:29 AM by Roblox »

Hi Guys! I'm going to try to write one of these timelines, this one centering on election night 2018, obviously. I'll attempt to make this fairly realistic, besides a few in-jokes here and there (or perhaps many: we'll see how it goes.) I'm planning on posting the first part this evening.

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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2018, 05:54:26 PM »

Is the Elmo before election day?
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Roblox
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2018, 06:03:21 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2018, 04:10:20 PM by Roblox »


Knowing Atlas, it will happen 10 times on election night, lol.

Anyway, lets get started…

Background





On October 6th, 2018, Brett Kavanaugh is confirmed by a 51-49 vote. After this, the republican enthusiasm bounce fades, and democrats have a major advantage in participation in the midterm elections again. By election day, democrats have an 8.5 point lead on the generic ballot, according to 538. House control is leaning heavily towards the democrats.

The senate is more complicated: The republicans are increasingly feeling good about holding Tennessee, and gaining North Dakota, but Arizona and Nevada seem to be tilting against them, and In the final days of the Texas senate race, a tape drops showing ted Cruz mocking republican voters, calling them "gullible idiots" who "would vote for a carrot if it had an (R) next to its name". The republicans are still favored to hold the senate, but the situation has indeed gotten interesting.

Already, there are indications of record turnout across the nation on election day….
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Roblox
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2018, 05:50:22 PM »

6:00 PM

Wolf Blitzer: Hello to all of our viewers joining us for election night in America! Just now, the first polls are closing in Indiana, where there is a hard fought senate contest, and in Kentucky, where we are closely watching the battle for the 6th district, between Amy McGrath and republican incumbent Andy Barr.

John King: But first, lets look at some of the first exit poll results from voters around the country!

Trump approval-"of course, midterm elections tend to be a referendum on the president, so that is the first question we will look at ."

Approve: 40%
   Disapprove: 57%

King: "Ouch! As you can see, those approvals are lukewarm at best, barely hitting 40%, with pretty close to 60% disapproving. This is pretty reflective of our pre-election polling showing the presidents approval easing down over the last few weeks after the bump he got early last month from the Kavanaugh situation. Now, lets look at some of the top issues on voters minds-

Health care-40%
Jobs and the economy-32%
Foreign Policy-10%
Illegal immigration-10%
Other-5%

"As you can see, health care is the leading issue. That must be music to democrats ears right now, because they have been harping on this issue for the whole cycle, attacking the republicans for their obama-care repeal attempt last year. That has really been central to their message. Considering how good the economic numbers are, the top must be disappointed with how that is only second place, which is pretty unusual by the way."

"And finally, lets look at the gender gap: There has been a lot of talk about this year being the year of the woman, with a wave of female candidates running across the nation. Let's see how women and men voted for the house this year".

Women (51%)
Democrats:60%
Republicans:38%

Men (49%)
Republicans:49%
Democrats: 47%

"As you can see, democrats have stunning 22 point advantage with women, in fact cracking 60%. I don't think I've ever seen anything like it. Meanwhile, men are voting republican, but its by a very narrow margin, just two points. Frankly, that won't be nearly enough to make up for that deficit with women. This must really be worrying republicans in those suburban districts right now, like Barbara Comstock in Virginia or Mike Coffman in Colorado…"

-Well guys, what do you think of this tl so far? Any feedback?
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2018, 05:57:48 PM »

Continue!
Maybe photos
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Roblox
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2018, 07:56:52 PM »


Actually, I'm having an issue with posting photos right now. I may try to figure it out later though, but in the meantime I still want to keep on with this tl. I plan on putting out the next part tomorrow. Thanks for the encouragement!
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Roblox
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« Reply #6 on: October 09, 2018, 06:50:28 PM »

6:10 PM

Wolf Blitzer: "and now, lets look at our first results from Indiana and Kentucky!"

*cheesy CNN transition*

"In Indiana, just 1% is in, but republican challenger Mike Braun is ahead 58 percent to 37 percent. But again, it's just 1%.

Indiana Senate (1% in)

Braun:58.2%
Donelly:37.0%

John King: "Looking at where this vote is coming from, its all from a couple of rural precincts that are pretty small, and that are strongly republican. So nothing to go nuts over yet. Now, lets look at the results in Kentucky's 6th congressional district:"

Kentucky 6th district (1% in)
Barr:57.2%
McGarth:42.0%

King: "Again, small rural precincts, just 1% in."

Dana Bash: "you know, I'm getting texts from democratic sources saying that they are very excited about those exit polls from earlier. One of them even said that they wouldn't be surprised if they gain 50 seats tonight. Obviously, thats further than most people are willing to go, but it is an indication of the kind of mood coming from these insider circles".

Obligatory Republican strategist: "Well you know, in 2016, republicans really over performed, so, yeah."

Obligatory Democratic Strategist: "Look, there is a lot of enthusiasm on our side, and that advantage could really get us over the top."

Jake Tapper: "I'm getting reports of huge turnout in democratic precincts in areas such as Indianapolis and Gary, in Indiana, as well as big turnout, frankly, across the country. We've all seen that footage of lines stretching for blocks."

Next: 7:00 pm poll closings and results
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Roblox
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2018, 06:46:25 PM »
« Edited: October 13, 2018, 07:27:14 PM by Roblox »

7:00 PM Poll Closings

Wolf Blitzer: "At this time, polls are closing in the states of Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, and Vermont. Meanwhile, the rest of the polling places will be closing in the states of Kentucky and Indiana."

*CNN projections animation*

Wolf Blitzer: "In the senate, we can project that Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has won re-election. This is obviously no surprise, though he's notable for being a potential 2020 candidate."

"In the state of Virginia, Tim Kaine, Hilary Clinton's former running mate,has won re-election. Now lets get on to the governorships…"

"In South Carolina, we can project that Henry McMaster, who took over as governor after Nicki Haley left, has won re-election. Meanwhile, the Georgia governors race, between democrat Stacey Abrams and republican Brian Kemp is TOO CLOSE TO CALL."

"Let's get back to some of the Indiana Senate race. At this time, 12% of the vote is in from Indiana, and republican challenger Mike Braun is narrowly ahead right now, 50 percent to 45 percent."

Indiana Senate (12% in)

Braun: 50.00%
Donnelly: 45.0%

"Meanwhile, in the kentcyky 6th district, 20% is in, and the democrat, Katie McGrath, is slightly ahead, but it is incredibly tight!"

Kentucky 6th (20% in)

McGrath:49.2%
Barr: 49.0%

"Let's to to our Panel to see what they think about how this night is shaping up."

Dana Bash: "As you just saw, Tim Kaine easily won re-election, which has republicans worried about their down-ballot house candidates in Virginia, as those coattails could really bring them down in those tight races. Not just Barbara Comstock, but also Dave Bratt and Scott Taylor. There are 4 republican house seats at risk tonight in that state."

Republican Strategist: "Nothing unexpected so far, but Mike Braun is leading that senate race in Indiana, and as we all know, Vice President Pence has been campaigning hard the last few weeks, to bring that one home for the republicans. I really do feel that the president could have a very beneficial effect on that race for Braun."

Democratic Strategist: "The thing is, we have nothing from Indianapolis and Gary yet, two huge democratic areas, so the fact that Mike Braun is only leading by 5 at this point is, if anything very bad for him. I'm feeling pretty optimistic about Indiana. Also, in the 6th district, you know, that's a district Donald Trump won by 16 points, where the republican incumbent is trailing right now, and we've forced the GOP to spend millions an dominions of dollars there. Its a great example of how we;ve expanded the map this cycle."

John King: "To interject, that map in the 6th district is really interesting. Just 5% is in from Fayette County, where lexington is, and that is the biggest and bluest county in the district, but look at this: McGarth is winning there by 30 points, 64 percent to 34 percent. This is a county Hilary Clinton won by 9. This could be another indication of republicans doing badly in these better off, professional areas."

Next: More results, along with some surprises in Indiana
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2018, 07:18:39 PM »

Good job, but it's McGrath Tongue
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Roblox
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2018, 07:27:51 PM »

^Oops. Well, it's fixed now.
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2018, 10:11:48 PM »

50-45 sounds pretty good for Donnelly if there is no Indianapolis or Gary.

Also, 64-34 in Fayette is better than Jim Gray got against Rand Paul in 2016 KY Senate.

So I'll take it, cautiously optimistic.
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Roblox
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2018, 04:27:41 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2018, 08:17:20 PM by Roblox »

7:15 PM-more results

Wolf Blitzer: This in interesting-In Indiana's 9th congressional district, republican incumbent Trey Hollingsworth is ahead by the narrowest of margins- 50.3 percent to 49.7 percent, with 22% reporting. The raw vote margin is just 270 votes!

John King: This race really wasn't on many people's radar-it was sort've a peripheral race at best for the democrats, so to see it so close right now is pretty stunning. Something similar is happening in Indiana's 2nd district-republican incumbent Jackie Walorski, try saying that 5 times fast, (chuckles), is ahead by just 4 points, 52 percent to 48 percent, with 15 percent reporting. Now, senator Joe Donnelley used to represent this district, so maybe there's a little bit of a coattail effect there, but this is still a race that nobody was really looking at before, well, right now.

Wolf Blizter: Let's get back to the senate race in Indiana-Mike Braun's lead has narrowed, he now just leads by a little over 3 points, or about 11,000 raw votes, with 18 percent in.

Indiana Senate (18% in)

Braun:49.0%
Donnelly:45.9%

John King: What I really want to show you guys is vigo county- it does vote well to the left of the state overall, but for what it's worth it has predicted the winner in every presidential election since 1964, with Donald Trump winning it by 16 points two years ago. Right now, 30 percent is in here, and Donnelly is wining 55 percent to 40 percent, and this is important because, one, this is a place where Donnelly needs to win big if he is to come out victorious tonight, and two, it could be an indication that he's winning over some of those working class, blue collar, obama-trump voters.

Jake Tapper: More results are flooding in, but look at this- the first votes are coming in from Virginia, where there are a bunch of competitive house races-in  the state's 10th district, democrat Jennifer Wexton is leading Barbara Comstock by 10 points, 55 percent to 45 percent, though only 5 percent is in-actually, lets just show all of the important Virginia races at the moment-

VA-10 (5% in)

Wexton:55.0%
Comstock: 45.0%

VA-7 (10% in)

Brat: 53.0%
Spanberger:44.4%

VA-5 (12% in)

Riggleman: 53.2%
Cockburn: 46.8%

VA-2 (6% in)

Taylor:50.2%
Luria:49.8%

Blitzer: Some tight races it seems!

Next: Georgia and KY-06 results, along with 7:30 poll closings
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2018, 08:11:53 PM »

7:15 PM-more results


VA-2 (6% in)

Taylor:50.2%
Laura:49.8%



The Democratic candidate is Elaine Luria.
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Roblox
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« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2018, 05:31:27 PM »

7:25 PM

Wolf Blitzer: We're getting more results from Kentucky's 6th district, and Amy McGrath is expanding her narrow lead-with 35% in, she's ahead by a little over a point, and her raw vote edge is about 1,000 votes, but there is still a long way to go.

KY-06 (35% in)

McGrath: 49.7%
Barr: 48.4%

Blitzer: Meanwhile, in the key Georgia Governors race, we're getting our first results. Just 7% is in right now, but republican Brian Kemp is ahead 66 percent to 31 percent over Stacey Abrams. Then again, practically all of the votes so far are from rural counties in Northern Georgia.

Georgia Governor (7% in)

Kemp: 66.2%
Abrams:31.0%

Republican Strategist: What we're seeing reflected tonight, in a stark fashion, is this rural-urban divide. A lot of these battleground districts are in rural areas, and I really think that will help us out tonight.

Wolf Blitzer: We're coming up on 7:30, when polls in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia close. In West Virginia, we have our eye on the crucial senate race between Patrick Morrisey, the republican, and Joe Manchin, a moderate democrat running for re-election, in a state the President won by 42 points.

*CNN projections transition*

"In Ohio, we can project that democratic Senator Sherrod Brown has won re-election."

"In the state of West Virginia, the senate race is TOO EARLY TO CALL at this time."

"Back in Ohio, the governors race between Richard Cordray and Mike Dewine is TOO CLOSE TO CALL at this time."

John King: So far, nothing unexp-

Wolf Blitzer: Hold on, we have another major projection-

"In Virginia's 10th congressional district, republican incumbent Barbara Comstock has lost re-election to democrat Jennifer Wexton. This is based on the results so far and percent analysis"

VA-10 (10% in)

Wexton:57.0%
Comstock:43.0%

Jake Tapper: Well, the overall winner is not surprising, but that margin could be, considering that republicans have been spending millions of dollars here the last few weeks. It looks like that money has gone down the drain. obviously, the first pickup of the night for democrats.

Next: 8:00 pm poll closings, and a surprise in New England.
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Roblox
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2018, 06:08:22 PM »
« Edited: October 24, 2018, 06:11:29 PM by Roblox »

8:00 PM

Wolf Blitzer: In just seconds, polls will close in 16 states, containing a slew of competitive races. We're coming in with cnn projections right now.

*CNN projections intro*

"In the senate, Angus King has won re-election in Maine"

"In Connecticut, Chris Murphy has won a second term"

"In Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren has been sent back"

"In Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse has won a third term"

"In New Jersey, Bob Menendez has been sent back for a third term"

"In Maryland, Ben Cardin has won re-election"

"Finally, Bob Casey has won a third term in Pennsylvania while Tom Carper has won in Delaware. In Mississippi, republicans have won both senate seats tonight, managing to avoid a runoff in one of them."

"Meanwhile, in the state of Missouri, a dead heat senate race between Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican Josh Hawley is too close to call at this time"

"In Tennessee, the race between Phil Breseden, democrat and the former governor, and Marsha Blackburn, the republican, is too close to call in the contest for Bob Corkers senate seat. In Florida, the senate race between Rick Scott and Bill Nelson is too close to call, with 45% already in, Scott Currently leads just 50.5%-49.5%."

Jake Tapper: Lets move on to the governors races.

"In Illinois, democrats have made their first gubernatorial pickup of the night, ousting Bruce Rauner. JB Pritzker will now be the governor there."

"In Pennsylvania, Tom Wolf, the democratic incumbent, has won re-election."

"Republicans have won races in Alabama, Tennessee, Maryland, and Massachusetts."

"Meanwhile, Florida is too close to call. Democrat Andrew Gillum is narrowly ahead right now, but by just 1 point, 49.6%-48.4% over Ron Desantis."

"In Oklahoma, we are classifying the race as too early to call."

"Finally, In New Hampshire, a big surprise. The republican governor, John Sununu, was expected to win easily, but his democratic opponent, Molly Kelly, is ahead 50.7% to 46.7% at the moment, with 15% in. This will be one to watch."

Next: Indiana and KY-06 results, and a call in West Virginia.
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Roblox
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2018, 04:50:06 PM »

8:15 PM

Wolf Blitzer: More results are coming in-In the state of Indiana, 44% of the vote is now in, and it looks like Joe Donnelly, the democratic incumbent, has pulled narrowly ahead, by a little under two points.

Indiana senate (44% in)

Donnelly: 48.2%
Braun: 46.5%

Meanwhile, we have three more calls in the house races at this time…

We can project that democrats have picked up more house seats, flipping Pennsylvania's 5th and 6th districts, along with New Jersey's 2nd, from republican to democratic control. They have flipped four seats so far tonight, and they need nineteen more to gain a house majority. While we're at it, let's check back in on the race going on in Kentucky's 6th district…

KY-06 (64% in)

McGarth: 51.0%
Barr: 47.2%

John King: It's worth noting that Fayette County is 75% in, so a little ahead of the district overall, and that's where McGarth is getting a big basket of votes, as she's winning there 64-34. Still, things don't look too good for Andy Barr at the moment. Already, republicans had very little hope of keeping the house, and if they lose this district, there's pretty much no chance they will be able to keep the majority.

Republican Strategist: As you said, Fayette is coming in pretty fast, and once that's all in, I think we can regain the lead there through those more republican leaning rural areas.

Democratic Strategist: The thing is, once all of Fayette is in, will Amy McGrath's lead be simply too big for Barr to overcome? I believe that is a big possibility.

Wolf Blitzer: Hold on, we have a big call to make right now, in the West Virginia senate race-

We can now project that Joe Manchin has won re-election. with 21% in, he is ahead by 17 points, 57%-40%. This is a huge win for the democratic, especially considering that the president won this state by over 40 points just two years ago.

WV senate (21% in)

Manchin: 57.4%
Morrisey:40.00%

Republican Strategist: In fairness, Patrick Morrisey is a pretty weak candidiate (TM).

Next: Florida results, and a very obvious result in Arkansas, along with the reaction of the atlas forum to the night's events.
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