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Author Topic: GOP dude: Texas safe for Republicans for at least 20-30 years  (Read 2339 times)
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« Reply #25 on: March 10, 2017, 11:58:42 pm »

The thing is that you and me both gotta be coherent in choosing our assumptions. We can't extrapolate only those historical facts that support our desired scenarios. You can't assume that whites won't vote like their parents, but hispanics will.

I think you are missing my point here. I'm saying how a person votes when they are young, who they support, all tends to have a large effect on their voting patterns later in life.

I do not believe we have exit polls for racial minorities by age group for all these elections decades ago, but I'd be willing to bet Hispanic and African American voters then voted as strongly Democratic as they do now, give or take. I'm saying the same dynamic applies to whites as well. In fact, Democrats may have a problem with African American males as well - they seem to be trending Republican, even if overall its effect is not that significant. If we started having elections where Hispanics were won by Republicans by 2 points one time, then 10 the next, etc, I'd say we may have an emerging GOP-dominated Hispanic generation in the future. Likewise, the way young whites are voting, well, it seems like Republicans are going to fall short of what they need to maintain political dominance. Far short, actually.

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« Reply #26 on: March 11, 2017, 12:14:46 am »
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The thing is that you and me both gotta be coherent in choosing our assumptions. We can't extrapolate only those historical facts that support our desired scenarios. You can't assume that whites won't vote like their parents, but hispanics will.

I think you are missing my point here. I'm saying how a person votes when they are young, who they support, all tends to have a large effect on their voting patterns later in life.

I do not believe we have exit polls for racial minorities by age group for all these elections decades ago, but I'd be willing to bet Hispanic and African American voters then voted as strongly Democratic as they do now, give or take. I'm saying the same dynamic applies to whites as well. In fact, Democrats may have a problem with African American males as well - they seem to be trending Republican, even if overall its effect is not that significant. If we started having elections where Hispanics were won by Republicans by 2 points one time, then 10 the next, etc, I'd say we may have an emerging GOP-dominated Hispanic generation in the future. Likewise, the way young whites are voting, well, it seems like Republicans are going to fall short of what they need to maintain political dominance. Far short, actually.




As I've said, the young whites's voting also advanced doom for republicans during the sixties and the seventies...
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« Reply #27 on: March 11, 2017, 12:30:25 am »

As I've said, the young whites's voting also advanced doom for republicans during the sixties and the seventies...

Yes you've said but some exit polls (or other useful data) spanning more than one election (although whatever you were looking at for 1972 would be nice too) is needed to back up your point. Otherwise, all I see is an opinion that really goes contradictory to other theories that are actually backed up by research. For instance, you say 60s, but when people talk about the previously-liberal boomers, they are usually talking about all the protests and hippies and stuff, which is largely irrelevant here. It is known that a segment of the Boomer generation is liberal, but it's not nearly large enough to tilt the entire generation. It's more of a case of one part of a group being loud and distinct enough to skew opinion of a larger body.

I'm not sure what else to add to this. I've stated my point, and you have yours, but you need to provide some research and/or data on your side.

As for me:

https://my.vanderbilt.edu/larrybartels/files/2011/12/LMBJackman.pdf
http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/03/the-generation-gap-and-the-2012-election-3/
http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/30/a-different-look-at-generations-and-partisanship/
http://www.seeker.com/do-people-become-more-conservative-as-they-age-1765596891.html

although more can be found on your own if you were so inclined.
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« Reply #28 on: March 13, 2017, 10:26:40 am »
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As the resident Texas pessimist on this forum, I don't see Texas being a credible swing state or even possible for Dem statewide victory in statewide races for some time to come. It is borderline impossible for local Dem politicians in TX to build a statewide name recognition and reputation given the vastness of the state and how diffuse its population is. A local San Antonio legend will be an unknown in Dallas or Houston, and vice versa. The incredibly low Hispanic voter turnout means that the electorate is far more white than the state as a whole is. Well-to-do white Texans are motivated and loyal GOP voters and it is hard to overcome those suburban margins when the urban areas aren't as Dem as the ones in other states.

I think Texas could be the new Florida after a while in that it becomes a lean-R critical swing state, but I don't think we'll be seeing that even in the 2020s.
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« Reply #29 on: March 13, 2017, 03:42:32 pm »
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As the resident Texas pessimist on this forum, I don't see Texas being a credible swing state or even possible for Dem statewide victory in statewide races for some time to come. It is borderline impossible for local Dem politicians in TX to build a statewide name recognition and reputation given the vastness of the state and how diffuse its population is. A local San Antonio legend will be an unknown in Dallas or Houston, and vice versa. The incredibly low Hispanic voter turnout means that the electorate is far more white than the state as a whole is. Well-to-do white Texans are motivated and loyal GOP voters and it is hard to overcome those suburban margins when the urban areas aren't as Dem as the ones in other states.

I think Texas could be the new Florida after a while in that it becomes a lean-R critical swing state, but I don't think we'll be seeing that even in the 2020s.

OK, that's a fair assessment, but what do you credit the major shift in 2016 to?  Hillary did generally worse than Obama overall but shifted Texas something like 7 points to the left.  A 9 point margin (though significant in a big state) is starting to get into the realm of battleground territory.
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« Reply #30 on: March 13, 2017, 03:58:38 pm »
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As the resident Texas pessimist on this forum, I don't see Texas being a credible swing state or even possible for Dem statewide victory in statewide races for some time to come. It is borderline impossible for local Dem politicians in TX to build a statewide name recognition and reputation given the vastness of the state and how diffuse its population is. A local San Antonio legend will be an unknown in Dallas or Houston, and vice versa. The incredibly low Hispanic voter turnout means that the electorate is far more white than the state as a whole is. Well-to-do white Texans are motivated and loyal GOP voters and it is hard to overcome those suburban margins when the urban areas aren't as Dem as the ones in other states.

I think Texas could be the new Florida after a while in that it becomes a lean-R critical swing state, but I don't think we'll be seeing that even in the 2020s.

OK, that's a fair assessment, but what do you credit the major shift in 2016 to?  Hillary did generally worse than Obama overall but shifted Texas something like 7 points to the left.  A 9 point margin (though significant in a big state) is starting to get into the realm of battleground territory.

This. I'm not saying that Texas is a battleground state, but it's really not inconceivable to find a way to get a Democrat to 50% in a Presidential year. 66% in Dallas, flipping Tarrant, 70% in Travis, flipping Denton, flipping Collin (I realize these last two are much easier said than done, but they are on the verge of becoming minority-majority counties), flipping Williamson, flipping Hays, getting 60% in Harris, and getting 60% in Bexar. It's really that path, and at the rate of urban-rural polarization we're zooming at now, this doesn't really strike me as unrealistic once the minority youth in these counties reach voting age.
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« Reply #31 on: March 13, 2017, 05:11:24 pm »
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As the resident Texas pessimist on this forum, I don't see Texas being a credible swing state or even possible for Dem statewide victory in statewide races for some time to come. It is borderline impossible for local Dem politicians in TX to build a statewide name recognition and reputation given the vastness of the state and how diffuse its population is. A local San Antonio legend will be an unknown in Dallas or Houston, and vice versa. The incredibly low Hispanic voter turnout means that the electorate is far more white than the state as a whole is. Well-to-do white Texans are motivated and loyal GOP voters and it is hard to overcome those suburban margins when the urban areas aren't as Dem as the ones in other states.

I think Texas could be the new Florida after a while in that it becomes a lean-R critical swing state, but I don't think we'll be seeing that even in the 2020s.

OK, that's a fair assessment, but what do you credit the major shift in 2016 to?  Hillary did generally worse than Obama overall but shifted Texas something like 7 points to the left.  A 9 point margin (though significant in a big state) is starting to get into the realm of battleground territory.

This. I'm not saying that Texas is a battleground state, but it's really not inconceivable to find a way to get a Democrat to 50% in a Presidential year. 66% in Dallas, flipping Tarrant, 70% in Travis, flipping Denton, flipping Collin (I realize these last two are much easier said than done, but they are on the verge of becoming minority-majority counties), flipping Williamson, flipping Hays, getting 60% in Harris, and getting 60% in Bexar. It's really that path, and at the rate of urban-rural polarization we're zooming at now, this doesn't really strike me as unrealistic once the minority youth in these counties reach voting age.


Due to the vast swath of 80% R rural counties, the state is actually a natural R pack if it ever became just a Lean R state in national races.  I think TX Dems would take the lower chamber of the state legislature before they win anything statewide.  If it was only R+2 like Florida, they might actually be favored to control the state legislature, at least under current redistricting law.
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« Reply #32 on: March 13, 2017, 05:18:45 pm »
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As the resident Texas pessimist on this forum, I don't see Texas being a credible swing state or even possible for Dem statewide victory in statewide races for some time to come. It is borderline impossible for local Dem politicians in TX to build a statewide name recognition and reputation given the vastness of the state and how diffuse its population is. A local San Antonio legend will be an unknown in Dallas or Houston, and vice versa. The incredibly low Hispanic voter turnout means that the electorate is far more white than the state as a whole is. Well-to-do white Texans are motivated and loyal GOP voters and it is hard to overcome those suburban margins when the urban areas aren't as Dem as the ones in other states.

I think Texas could be the new Florida after a while in that it becomes a lean-R critical swing state, but I don't think we'll be seeing that even in the 2020s.

OK, that's a fair assessment, but what do you credit the major shift in 2016 to?  Hillary did generally worse than Obama overall but shifted Texas something like 7 points to the left.  A 9 point margin (though significant in a big state) is starting to get into the realm of battleground territory.

This. I'm not saying that Texas is a battleground state, but it's really not inconceivable to find a way to get a Democrat to 50% in a Presidential year. 66% in Dallas, flipping Tarrant, 70% in Travis, flipping Denton, flipping Collin (I realize these last two are much easier said than done, but they are on the verge of becoming minority-majority counties), flipping Williamson, flipping Hays, getting 60% in Harris, and getting 60% in Bexar. It's really that path, and at the rate of urban-rural polarization we're zooming at now, this doesn't really strike me as unrealistic once the minority youth in these counties reach voting age.


Due to the vast swath of 80% R rural counties, the state is actually a natural R pack if it ever became just a Lean R state in national races.  I think TX Dems would take the lower chamber of the state legislature before they win anything statewide.  If it was only R+2 like Florida, they might actually be favored to control the state legislature, at least under current redistricting law.

Yep. Republicans better hope a Democratic Governor doesn't preside over redistricting in either 2020 or 2030. A court drawn map would probably be about as bad as the California map by 2030. Maybe even worse. California, MA, MD, and TX are the main places where the GOP is ironically the party that is sepf-packing. There was a good thread on RRH about this paradigm a while back.
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« Reply #33 on: March 13, 2017, 05:53:24 pm »
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As the resident Texas pessimist on this forum, I don't see Texas being a credible swing state or even possible for Dem statewide victory in statewide races for some time to come. It is borderline impossible for local Dem politicians in TX to build a statewide name recognition and reputation given the vastness of the state and how diffuse its population is. A local San Antonio legend will be an unknown in Dallas or Houston, and vice versa. The incredibly low Hispanic voter turnout means that the electorate is far more white than the state as a whole is. Well-to-do white Texans are motivated and loyal GOP voters and it is hard to overcome those suburban margins when the urban areas aren't as Dem as the ones in other states.

I think Texas could be the new Florida after a while in that it becomes a lean-R critical swing state, but I don't think we'll be seeing that even in the 2020s.

OK, that's a fair assessment, but what do you credit the major shift in 2016 to?  Hillary did generally worse than Obama overall but shifted Texas something like 7 points to the left.  A 9 point margin (though significant in a big state) is starting to get into the realm of battleground territory.

This. I'm not saying that Texas is a battleground state, but it's really not inconceivable to find a way to get a Democrat to 50% in a Presidential year. 66% in Dallas, flipping Tarrant, 70% in Travis, flipping Denton, flipping Collin (I realize these last two are much easier said than done, but they are on the verge of becoming minority-majority counties), flipping Williamson, flipping Hays, getting 60% in Harris, and getting 60% in Bexar. It's really that path, and at the rate of urban-rural polarization we're zooming at now, this doesn't really strike me as unrealistic once the minority youth in these counties reach voting age.


Due to the vast swath of 80% R rural counties, the state is actually a natural R pack if it ever became just a Lean R state in national races.  I think TX Dems would take the lower chamber of the state legislature before they win anything statewide.  If it was only R+2 like Florida, they might actually be favored to control the state legislature, at least under current redistricting law.

Yep. Republicans better hope a Democratic Governor doesn't preside over redistricting in either 2020 or 2030. A court drawn map would probably be about as bad as the California map by 2030. Maybe even worse. California, MA, MD, and TX are the main places where the GOP is ironically the party that is sepf-packing. There was a good thread on RRH about this paradigm a while back.

This is exactly why I think the educated suburbs are the way to go for Dems.  Sure, Republicans will get 80-90% margins in rural areas, but then they'd encounter the urban packing issue Democrats have now.  At the same time, if Republicans start losing the suburbs 55-45 they will be locked out of the House because there's not enough rural white districts to offset this.
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« Reply #34 on: March 14, 2017, 12:28:29 am »
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As the resident Texas pessimist on this forum, I don't see Texas being a credible swing state or even possible for Dem statewide victory in statewide races for some time to come. It is borderline impossible for local Dem politicians in TX to build a statewide name recognition and reputation given the vastness of the state and how diffuse its population is. A local San Antonio legend will be an unknown in Dallas or Houston, and vice versa. The incredibly low Hispanic voter turnout means that the electorate is far more white than the state as a whole is. Well-to-do white Texans are motivated and loyal GOP voters and it is hard to overcome those suburban margins when the urban areas aren't as Dem as the ones in other states.

I think Texas could be the new Florida after a while in that it becomes a lean-R critical swing state, but I don't think we'll be seeing that even in the 2020s.

OK, that's a fair assessment, but what do you credit the major shift in 2016 to?  Hillary did generally worse than Obama overall but shifted Texas something like 7 points to the left.  A 9 point margin (though significant in a big state) is starting to get into the realm of battleground territory.

This. I'm not saying that Texas is a battleground state, but it's really not inconceivable to find a way to get a Democrat to 50% in a Presidential year. 66% in Dallas, flipping Tarrant, 70% in Travis, flipping Denton, flipping Collin (I realize these last two are much easier said than done, but they are on the verge of becoming minority-majority counties), flipping Williamson, flipping Hays, getting 60% in Harris, and getting 60% in Bexar. It's really that path, and at the rate of urban-rural polarization we're zooming at now, this doesn't really strike me as unrealistic once the minority youth in these counties reach voting age.


This is basically the math, and actually not especially unrealistic in 2020 if Trump is the Republican nominee....

There are other key suburban counties in Metro Houston, that you did not mention (Fort Bend & Montgomery), with the former moving dramatically to the "Left" and the latter experiencing some pretty dramatic swings, especially in the areas around the Woodlands.

Also, one item that is often overlooked, is the significant Latino population in WestTex and SouthTex, that are generally a bit more Republican than working-class Latinos in the larger Metro areas, but can still shift the margins around a bit in Rural Tejas.

Ultimately Texas elections in the modern era have been won and lost in the large Metro areas, and with the increasing urbanized nature of the Texas electorate is likely to continue.....

The counterbalance to large Republican margins in rural and small town EastTex, NorthTex is obviously coming from SouthTex and WestTex to minimize the "rural" bleeding, even if the Dems can flip Tarrant (Entirely feasible), rack up large % in the heavily or leaning Dem Counties, and decrease the Republican margins in the suburbs of Metro DFW, Houston, SA, etc....

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« Reply #35 on: March 14, 2017, 12:57:06 pm »
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As a Collin County resident, I am kind of skeptical of Collin County flipping any time soon, in all honesty. It's going to be Republican for many decades probably. It's a) rich, b) has some very R rural bits, c) culturally conservative. There's also a trend in which Republicans who live in Dallas County move to Collin County. Dems don't need to win Collin County...but if they are somehow winning it over and over again, Texas is surely Lean Dem.
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« Reply #36 on: March 14, 2017, 04:38:03 pm »
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As a Collin County resident, I am kind of skeptical of Collin County flipping any time soon, in all honesty. It's going to be Republican for many decades probably. It's a) rich, b) has some very R rural bits, c) culturally conservative. There's also a trend in which Republicans who live in Dallas County move to Collin County. Dems don't need to win Collin County...but if they are somehow winning it over and over again, Texas is surely Lean Dem.

I'll defer to you, but isn't Collin and Denton on the verge of becoming minority-majority, or is it just Denton? I mean, we saw what happened with Gwinnett County, Georgia this year after it went minority-majority in 2011. and the other Atlanta suburban counties that swung dramatically from like 2/3 R in 2004 to 60% D in 2016. Or Orange County, CA which went minority-majority in the late 2000's. I'm sure there will definitely be some lag time like there was for the counties above, but we've seen over and over again how rapidly some of these counties can shift.

UPDATE: Never mind, I was thinking of Denton County, which is 60% non-Hispanic white. Collin is still well above 70%.
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« Reply #37 on: March 14, 2017, 07:08:21 pm »
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Another issue: there's a difference between Texas being a swing state and being a tipping-point state (as Nate Silver would call it). If the Hispanic population goes up and Democrats continue to win it by large margins, they might win Texas, but they're also probably winning the country easily too in that case. (For instance, I can't see them winning Texas without already winning Florida and Arizona). For it to become a deciding state soon, there need to be demographic trends that are Texas or regionally specific (e.g. Texas whites trend sharply Democratic relative to national whites).
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« Reply #38 on: March 14, 2017, 08:20:10 pm »
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Another issue: there's a difference between Texas being a swing state and being a tipping-point state (as Nate Silver would call it). If the Hispanic population goes up and Democrats continue to win it by large margins, they might win Texas, but they're also probably winning the country easily too in that case. (For instance, I can't see them winning Texas without already winning Florida and Arizona). For it to become a deciding state soon, there need to be demographic trends that are Texas or regionally specific (e.g. Texas whites trend sharply Democratic relative to national whites).

Florida is very different from Texas and Arizona.  The state is diversifying, but there are still a bunch of white retirees voting Dem (and disproportionately the very oldest).  If that group starts to consistently vote 75%+ R (a quite plausible outcome of the Trump era IMO), Florida could trend right for a long while. 
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« Reply #39 on: March 15, 2017, 12:20:37 am »
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As a Collin County resident, I am kind of skeptical of Collin County flipping any time soon, in all honesty. It's going to be Republican for many decades probably. It's a) rich, b) has some very R rural bits, c) culturally conservative. There's also a trend in which Republicans who live in Dallas County move to Collin County. Dems don't need to win Collin County...but if they are somehow winning it over and over again, Texas is surely Lean Dem.

I'll defer to you, but isn't Collin and Denton on the verge of becoming minority-majority, or is it just Denton? I mean, we saw what happened with Gwinnett County, Georgia this year after it went minority-majority in 2011. and the other Atlanta suburban counties that swung dramatically from like 2/3 R in 2004 to 60% D in 2016. Or Orange County, CA which went minority-majority in the late 2000's. I'm sure there will definitely be some lag time like there was for the counties above, but we've seen over and over again how rapidly some of these counties can shift.

UPDATE: Never mind, I was thinking of Denton County, which is 60% non-Hispanic white. Collin is still well above 70%.
I think the places you would see having an OC-style transformation would be mainly Tarrant, the areas of Collin close to the Dallas County border, and the inner-ring suburbs of Dallas, TX, like Richardson, Garland, Arlington. The Oak Lawn voting 70-80% Dem sometimes. The Park Cities becoming R quasi-enclaves, or worse. Denton City becoming more and more Dem.
This is how a blue Texas materializes.
A county becoming more and more non-white is good for Dems, yes, but I think the inner-ring Dallas suburbs would fall sooner. Most of the same factors at play in Collin County are in play in Denton as well. Thus Democrats likelier pile up bigger margins in Tarrant and Dallas than win those two counties.
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« Reply #40 on: March 15, 2017, 12:25:02 am »
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As a Collin County resident, I am kind of skeptical of Collin County flipping any time soon, in all honesty. It's going to be Republican for many decades probably. It's a) rich, b) has some very R rural bits, c) culturally conservative. There's also a trend in which Republicans who live in Dallas County move to Collin County. Dems don't need to win Collin County...but if they are somehow winning it over and over again, Texas is surely Lean Dem.

I'll defer to you, but isn't Collin and Denton on the verge of becoming minority-majority, or is it just Denton? I mean, we saw what happened with Gwinnett County, Georgia this year after it went minority-majority in 2011. and the other Atlanta suburban counties that swung dramatically from like 2/3 R in 2004 to 60% D in 2016. Or Orange County, CA which went minority-majority in the late 2000's. I'm sure there will definitely be some lag time like there was for the counties above, but we've seen over and over again how rapidly some of these counties can shift.

UPDATE: Never mind, I was thinking of Denton County, which is 60% non-Hispanic white. Collin is still well above 70%.
I think the places you would see having an OC-style transformation would be mainly Tarrant, the areas of Collin close to the Dallas County border, and the inner-ring suburbs of Dallas, TX, like Richardson, Garland, Arlington. The Oak Lawn voting 70-80% Dem sometimes. The Park Cities becoming R quasi-enclaves, or worse. Denton City becoming more and more Dem.
This is how a blue Texas materializes.

Here behind the Orange curtain, we refer to this as "replacing civilization with someone elses babies."
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« Reply #41 on: March 16, 2017, 12:06:31 am »
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As a Collin County resident, I am kind of skeptical of Collin County flipping any time soon, in all honesty. It's going to be Republican for many decades probably. It's a) rich, b) has some very R rural bits, c) culturally conservative. There's also a trend in which Republicans who live in Dallas County move to Collin County. Dems don't need to win Collin County...but if they are somehow winning it over and over again, Texas is surely Lean Dem.

I'll defer to you, but isn't Collin and Denton on the verge of becoming minority-majority, or is it just Denton? I mean, we saw what happened with Gwinnett County, Georgia this year after it went minority-majority in 2011. and the other Atlanta suburban counties that swung dramatically from like 2/3 R in 2004 to 60% D in 2016. Or Orange County, CA which went minority-majority in the late 2000's. I'm sure there will definitely be some lag time like there was for the counties above, but we've seen over and over again how rapidly some of these counties can shift.

UPDATE: Never mind, I was thinking of Denton County, which is 60% non-Hispanic white. Collin is still well above 70%.
I think the places you would see having an OC-style transformation would be mainly Tarrant, the areas of Collin close to the Dallas County border, and the inner-ring suburbs of Dallas, TX, like Richardson, Garland, Arlington. The Oak Lawn voting 70-80% Dem sometimes. The Park Cities becoming R quasi-enclaves, or worse. Denton City becoming more and more Dem.
This is how a blue Texas materializes.
A county becoming more and more non-white is good for Dems, yes, but I think the inner-ring Dallas suburbs would fall sooner. Most of the same factors at play in Collin County are in play in Denton as well. Thus Democrats likelier pile up bigger margins in Tarrant and Dallas than win those two counties.

So what about fairly wealthy Anglo 'burbs in Metro DFW?

It's not just a question of swings among minority voters, but just as significantly among Middle-Class and wealthier Anglos in the suburbs of the six largest Metro areas in Texas, to turn the state purple.

There were similar swings (15-20%) that we saw in the wealthier communities in Metro Texas, just as what was observed in the West Coast and New England....

Not sure, if you saw this thread, but I pulled some numbers for Metro Houston, and even some parts of DFW...

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.50
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« Reply #42 on: March 16, 2017, 03:42:05 am »
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The thing is that you and me both gotta be coherent in choosing our assumptions. We can't extrapolate only those historical facts that support our desired scenarios. You can't assume that whites won't vote like their parents, but hispanics will.

It's not even a matter of being an assumption: it's just factually incorrect to state that people as a whole "become more conservative as they get older" with respect to your argument's context (or in any absolute sense). There's no evidence for this whatsoever and likewise evidence to the contrary, so merely stating that "well it could happen" is not evidence of your position nor does it allow you to put your argument on equal ground with precedent. Sure, precedent could change, but it could just as easily change where the correlation is stronger with precedent rather than weaker.

It doesn't happen - at least from a partisan standpoint. It takes something absolutely earth-shattering to abruptly (or even gradually) change the voting behaviors of a generation. Sure, people may become more conservative in a relative sense on social issues as they age, but they don't reverse their entire belief systems in any meaningful way. How a group is voting in its 20s is largely how it votes in its 70s. I'm sure the Greatest Generation wasn't very crazy about abortion or war protesters but they kept stuffing ballot boxes with Democratic votes until the Grim Reaper pulled their withered ol' hands off of the lever.

And with respect to your specific reference to how Latinos will vote, you're forgetting one pretty important point: the Latinos voting today are the kids. Their parents aren't. While I'm sure the dynamic is less pronounced in Texas due to longer-established Latino populations there, a strong majority of Latinos nationally who voted in 2016 had not cast a ballot before 2008 - mostly because they weren't eligible prior. In most communities where Latinos in their current numbers haven't been present for more than 30 years, anywhere from two-thirds to three-quarters of registered and voting Latinos are under the age of 45. The parents and grandparents aren't voting because they're disproportionately non-citizens.
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01:31   dfwlibertylover   at least I didn't vote for Gary Johnson
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TimTurner
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« Reply #43 on: March 17, 2017, 08:08:45 pm »
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As a Collin County resident, I am kind of skeptical of Collin County flipping any time soon, in all honesty. It's going to be Republican for many decades probably. It's a) rich, b) has some very R rural bits, c) culturally conservative. There's also a trend in which Republicans who live in Dallas County move to Collin County. Dems don't need to win Collin County...but if they are somehow winning it over and over again, Texas is surely Lean Dem.

I'll defer to you, but isn't Collin and Denton on the verge of becoming minority-majority, or is it just Denton? I mean, we saw what happened with Gwinnett County, Georgia this year after it went minority-majority in 2011. and the other Atlanta suburban counties that swung dramatically from like 2/3 R in 2004 to 60% D in 2016. Or Orange County, CA which went minority-majority in the late 2000's. I'm sure there will definitely be some lag time like there was for the counties above, but we've seen over and over again how rapidly some of these counties can shift.

UPDATE: Never mind, I was thinking of Denton County, which is 60% non-Hispanic white. Collin is still well above 70%.
I think the places you would see having an OC-style transformation would be mainly Tarrant, the areas of Collin close to the Dallas County border, and the inner-ring suburbs of Dallas, TX, like Richardson, Garland, Arlington. The Oak Lawn voting 70-80% Dem sometimes. The Park Cities becoming R quasi-enclaves, or worse. Denton City becoming more and more Dem.
This is how a blue Texas materializes.
A county becoming more and more non-white is good for Dems, yes, but I think the inner-ring Dallas suburbs would fall sooner. Most of the same factors at play in Collin County are in play in Denton as well. Thus Democrats likelier pile up bigger margins in Tarrant and Dallas than win those two counties.

So what about fairly wealthy Anglo 'burbs in Metro DFW?

It's not just a question of swings among minority voters, but just as significantly among Middle-Class and wealthier Anglos in the suburbs of the six largest Metro areas in Texas, to turn the state purple.

There were similar swings (15-20%) that we saw in the wealthier communities in Metro Texas, just as what was observed in the West Coast and New England....

Not sure, if you saw this thread, but I pulled some numbers for Metro Houston, and even some parts of DFW...

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.50
I like those numbers, yes, but I have doubts on their durability.
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« Reply #44 on: March 18, 2017, 10:43:49 am »
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He's right.

Texas won't be competitive for another 20 years or so. Hispanics in Texas turnout at very low levels. Trump ran the most racist and anti-Hispanic campaign ever, and Hispanic turnout was still relatively low/lower than it should've been. Once Trump is not on the ballot, Hispanics will turnout at even lower levels. Even if Hispanics are a majority in Texas by 2022, they will still turnout at very low levels. And whites in Texas will continue to vote overwhelmingly Republican and turnout at very high levels.
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« Reply #45 on: March 18, 2017, 11:57:56 am »

He's right.

Texas won't be competitive for another 20 years or so. Hispanics in Texas turnout at very low levels. Trump ran the most racist and anti-Hispanic campaign ever, and Hispanic turnout was still relatively low/lower than it should've been.

That could be a contributing reason, but it's not guaranteed. African American voters had low turnout up to the 90s, and it began to rise with each election starting in 1996, with the first dip probably being last year. There is no reason this couldn't happen with Hispanics:



Immigration reform/pathway to citizenship could also speed things up, although that's an unknown that can't really be factored in right now. It is at least possible if Democrats get a unified govt in the 2020s.

And whites in Texas will continue to vote overwhelmingly Republican

That is definitely not guaranteed. Given how Democratic the Millennial voters in TX were in 2016, it's likely white TX Millennials also trended Democratic. It's often not accurate to look at racial demographics as a single block - within each demographic, there are subgroups that all have different trends and voting patterns. Educated whites turn out at higher rates than non-educated. Young whites vote more Democratic than older whites. Educated whites also still seem to be trending at least somewhat Democratic, which makes sense given the highly educated nature of the Millennial generation.

I think whites in Texas will probably continue voting substantially Republican, but I think it's likely that their win margin drops over the next 15 or so years. In a state like that, Democrats stand to benefit quite a bit if they can simply erode that base of support a little.
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« Reply #46 on: March 19, 2017, 12:09:24 pm »
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FWIW...

Denton County, 2012
Romney: 64.91%
Obama: 33.35%
Johnson: 1.38%

Total vote: 242,781

Denton County, 2016
Trump: 57.13%
Clinton: 37.13%
Johnson: 3.88%

Total vote: 298,645

Collin County, 2012
Romney: 64.86%
Obama: 33.41%
Johnson: 1.22%

Total vote: 303,567

Collin County, 2016
Trump: 55.62%
Clinton: 38.91%
Johnson: 3.83%

Total vote: 361,419

Note that 2016 was an election in which many (but by no means all, of course) among the upscale suburban/metropolitan Republican crowd voted against Trump primarily because of his abrasive, mean-spirited style and unruly temperament, along with the very real fear that he would say something that could cause the stock market to crash or trigger a dangerous international incident. If/when the Republicans nominate a more polished, disciplined "Trumpist" who doesn't have the baggage of the current President, then they will win most of the NeverTrumpers back.*
 
*In fact, given that the stock market is doing better now and the agenda of the Congressional Republicans, they already have gotten many of these voters back on board.
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« Reply #47 on: March 19, 2017, 08:46:49 pm »
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As a Collin County resident, I am kind of skeptical of Collin County flipping any time soon, in all honesty. It's going to be Republican for many decades probably. It's a) rich, b) has some very R rural bits, c) culturally conservative. There's also a trend in which Republicans who live in Dallas County move to Collin County. Dems don't need to win Collin County...but if they are somehow winning it over and over again, Texas is surely Lean Dem.

I'll defer to you, but isn't Collin and Denton on the verge of becoming minority-majority, or is it just Denton? I mean, we saw what happened with Gwinnett County, Georgia this year after it went minority-majority in 2011. and the other Atlanta suburban counties that swung dramatically from like 2/3 R in 2004 to 60% D in 2016. Or Orange County, CA which went minority-majority in the late 2000's. I'm sure there will definitely be some lag time like there was for the counties above, but we've seen over and over again how rapidly some of these counties can shift.

UPDATE: Never mind, I was thinking of Denton County, which is 60% non-Hispanic white. Collin is still well above 70%.
I think the places you would see having an OC-style transformation would be mainly Tarrant, the areas of Collin close to the Dallas County border, and the inner-ring suburbs of Dallas, TX, like Richardson, Garland, Arlington. The Oak Lawn voting 70-80% Dem sometimes. The Park Cities becoming R quasi-enclaves, or worse. Denton City becoming more and more Dem.
This is how a blue Texas materializes.
A county becoming more and more non-white is good for Dems, yes, but I think the inner-ring Dallas suburbs would fall sooner. Most of the same factors at play in Collin County are in play in Denton as well. Thus Democrats likelier pile up bigger margins in Tarrant and Dallas than win those two counties.

Although I don't doubt your local knowledge and experience, things can shift extremely rapidly in Collins County, considering a relatively high % of the population <18 years old, many of whom are "minorities"....

I just pulled some numbers on another thread, and we see the 3rd largest city in Collins, and the fastest or one of the fastest growing cities in the US (Frisco Texas) swing over 20% between '12 and '16 with 33% of the population under the age of 18.

Take a peek at Murphy, which fits your "inner suburban" criteria and is 26% Asian-American, there was an 18% swing between '12 and '16....

I honestly would not be surprised if Collins County is the equivalent Fort Bend County of Texas come 2024 if current trends continue....

Thread link below for "five wealthiest places in Collins County" and some numbers I spent a bit of time pulling over the past few hours....

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.50

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« Reply #48 on: March 21, 2017, 10:55:23 pm »
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As a Collin County resident, I am kind of skeptical of Collin County flipping any time soon, in all honesty. It's going to be Republican for many decades probably. It's a) rich, b) has some very R rural bits, c) culturally conservative. There's also a trend in which Republicans who live in Dallas County move to Collin County. Dems don't need to win Collin County...but if they are somehow winning it over and over again, Texas is surely Lean Dem.

I'll defer to you, but isn't Collin and Denton on the verge of becoming minority-majority, or is it just Denton? I mean, we saw what happened with Gwinnett County, Georgia this year after it went minority-majority in 2011. and the other Atlanta suburban counties that swung dramatically from like 2/3 R in 2004 to 60% D in 2016. Or Orange County, CA which went minority-majority in the late 2000's. I'm sure there will definitely be some lag time like there was for the counties above, but we've seen over and over again how rapidly some of these counties can shift.

UPDATE: Never mind, I was thinking of Denton County, which is 60% non-Hispanic white. Collin is still well above 70%.
I think the places you would see having an OC-style transformation would be mainly Tarrant, the areas of Collin close to the Dallas County border, and the inner-ring suburbs of Dallas, TX, like Richardson, Garland, Arlington. The Oak Lawn voting 70-80% Dem sometimes. The Park Cities becoming R quasi-enclaves, or worse. Denton City becoming more and more Dem.
This is how a blue Texas materializes.
A county becoming more and more non-white is good for Dems, yes, but I think the inner-ring Dallas suburbs would fall sooner. Most of the same factors at play in Collin County are in play in Denton as well. Thus Democrats likelier pile up bigger margins in Tarrant and Dallas than win those two counties.

Although I don't doubt your local knowledge and experience, things can shift extremely rapidly in Collins County, considering a relatively high % of the population <18 years old, many of whom are "minorities"....

I just pulled some numbers on another thread, and we see the 3rd largest city in Collins, and the fastest or one of the fastest growing cities in the US (Frisco Texas) swing over 20% between '12 and '16 with 33% of the population under the age of 18.

Take a peek at Murphy, which fits your "inner suburban" criteria and is 26% Asian-American, there was an 18% swing between '12 and '16....

I honestly would not be surprised if Collins County is the equivalent Fort Bend County of Texas come 2024 if current trends continue....

Thread link below for "five wealthiest places in Collins County" and some numbers I spent a bit of time pulling over the past few hours....

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.50
You do bring something of a good point. I hadn't really considered the high below-18 % of the population. The question would be how much of them actually vote. Lower turnout among these groups is one of the biggest problems TX Democrats have...a very good chunk of the TX GOP base in the DFW suburbs is wealthy rich people who are disproportionately likely to vote...Democrats would need to motivate their base to vote early and vote often. Which is hard. Still possible though, at some time in the future. Immigration reform that would allow undocumented immigrants to be naturalized and vote, that wouldn't hurt either.
It also can't hurt winning over groups like Asians. The GOP coalition in TX, one of its elements is wealthier Asians (like my former state Rep, Angie Chen Button, former employee at Texas Instruments). Peeling those voters from the GOP will be crucial to making the state truly Democratic-leaning.
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