China proposes compromise to defuse North Korea

[Beet]

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-calls-on-north-korea-to-stop-missile-tests--and-on-us-and-south-korea-to-halt-military-exercises/2017/03/08/67404bf0-03bc-11e7-a391-651727e77fc0_story.html

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I fixed your title for you. The holding of defensive military training exercises is not something that should be negotiable.

[Beet]

I fixed your title for you. The holding of defensive military training exercises is not something that should be negotiable.

Apparently Bill Clinton cancelled the 1994-1996 Team Spirit exercises as an incentive to improve relations. So it's not unprecedented. Given that Mattis is saying war would be "tragedy on an unbelievable scale" it would be strange if it came about due to the refusal to cancel some exercises. It's not as if anything material is lost, and they could be stated up again at any time, as the current Foal Eagle series that began in 1997.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I fixed your title for you. The holding of defensive military training exercises is not something that should be negotiable.

Apparently Bill Clinton cancelled the 1994-1996 Team Spirit exercises as an incentive to improve relations. So it's not unprecedented. Given that Mattis is saying war would be "tragedy on an unbelievable scale" it would be strange if it came about due to the refusal to cancel some exercises. It's not as if anything material is lost, and they could be stated up again at any time, as the current Foal Eagle series that began in 1997.

There's nothing material to be gained either..  Maybe if there were, such as offering to end joint exercises on the Korean peninsula once North Korea gets rid of its nuclear program, then I could see its use as a potential bargaining chip.

[Beet]

I fixed your title for you. The holding of defensive military training exercises is not something that should be negotiable.

Apparently Bill Clinton cancelled the 1994-1996 Team Spirit exercises as an incentive to improve relations. So it's not unprecedented. Given that Mattis is saying war would be "tragedy on an unbelievable scale" it would be strange if it came about due to the refusal to cancel some exercises. It's not as if anything material is lost, and they could be stated up again at any time, as the current Foal Eagle series that began in 1997.

There's nothing material to be gained either..  Maybe if there were, such as offering to end joint exercises on the Korean peninsula once North Korea gets rid of its nuclear program, then I could see its use as a potential bargaining chip.

It's Memorial day. If a war starts, and 15,000 American troops die in Korea, then retrospectively there's nothing material to be gained from preventing this?

[Santander]

What did Trump expect China to propose? Pulling the plug on little brother?

[SoLongAtlas]

Both are nonstarters.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I fixed your title for you. The holding of defensive military training exercises is not something that should be negotiable.

Apparently Bill Clinton cancelled the 1994-1996 Team Spirit exercises as an incentive to improve relations. So it's not unprecedented. Given that Mattis is saying war would be "tragedy on an unbelievable scale" it would be strange if it came about due to the refusal to cancel some exercises. It's not as if anything material is lost, and they could be stated up again at any time, as the current Foal Eagle series that began in 1997.

There's nothing material to be gained either..  Maybe if there were, such as offering to end joint exercises on the Korean peninsula once North Korea gets rid of its nuclear program, then I could see its use as a potential bargaining chip.

It's Memorial day. If a war starts, and 15,000 American troops die in Korea, then retrospectively there's nothing material to be gained from preventing this?

This particular capitulation would do nothing to prevent that.

[Beet]

I fixed your title for you. The holding of defensive military training exercises is not something that should be negotiable.

Apparently Bill Clinton cancelled the 1994-1996 Team Spirit exercises as an incentive to improve relations. So it's not unprecedented. Given that Mattis is saying war would be "tragedy on an unbelievable scale" it would be strange if it came about due to the refusal to cancel some exercises. It's not as if anything material is lost, and they could be stated up again at any time, as the current Foal Eagle series that began in 1997.

There's nothing material to be gained either..  Maybe if there were, such as offering to end joint exercises on the Korean peninsula once North Korea gets rid of its nuclear program, then I could see its use as a potential bargaining chip.

It's Memorial day. If a war starts, and 15,000 American troops die in Korea, then retrospectively there's nothing material to be gained from preventing this?

This particular capitulation would do nothing to prevent that.

Then what would, in your opinion? It would stop their nuclear and missile programs in their tracks.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I fixed your title for you. The holding of defensive military training exercises is not something that should be negotiable.

Apparently Bill Clinton cancelled the 1994-1996 Team Spirit exercises as an incentive to improve relations. So it's not unprecedented. Given that Mattis is saying war would be "tragedy on an unbelievable scale" it would be strange if it came about due to the refusal to cancel some exercises. It's not as if anything material is lost, and they could be stated up again at any time, as the current Foal Eagle series that began in 1997.

There's nothing material to be gained either..  Maybe if there were, such as offering to end joint exercises on the Korean peninsula once North Korea gets rid of its nuclear program, then I could see its use as a potential bargaining chip.

It's Memorial day. If a war starts, and 15,000 American troops die in Korea, then retrospectively there's nothing material to be gained from preventing this?

This particular capitulation would do nothing to prevent that.

Then what would, in your opinion? It would stop their nuclear and missile programs in their tracks.

Not really. All we would be doing would be giving them time to analyze the data from the tests they've already conducted and figure out what to do for improvement. Plus, I dont think for a moment that either Kim or Trump is going to do much more than bluster. We may get an eruption of two of conventional destruction, but this isn't going nuclear.

[Beet]

I fixed your title for you. The holding of defensive military training exercises is not something that should be negotiable.

Apparently Bill Clinton cancelled the 1994-1996 Team Spirit exercises as an incentive to improve relations. So it's not unprecedented. Given that Mattis is saying war would be "tragedy on an unbelievable scale" it would be strange if it came about due to the refusal to cancel some exercises. It's not as if anything material is lost, and they could be stated up again at any time, as the current Foal Eagle series that began in 1997.

There's nothing material to be gained either..  Maybe if there were, such as offering to end joint exercises on the Korean peninsula once North Korea gets rid of its nuclear program, then I could see its use as a potential bargaining chip.

It's Memorial day. If a war starts, and 15,000 American troops die in Korea, then retrospectively there's nothing material to be gained from preventing this?

This particular capitulation would do nothing to prevent that.

Then what would, in your opinion? It would stop their nuclear and missile programs in their tracks.

Not really. All we would be doing would be giving them time to analyze the data from the tests they've already conducted and figure out what to do for improvement. Plus, I dont think for a moment that either Kim or Trump is going to do much more than bluster. We may get an eruption of two of conventional destruction, but this isn't going nuclear.

It doesn't have to go nuclear to be catastrophic. And if it is catastrophic, the chances of it going nuclear skyrocket. In any case, what other solution is there? North Korea isn't just going to fold up randomly one day. They can already analyze the data from the tests they've conducted to their hearts' content. But new tests are more valuable. If this agreement had been in place when I posted the thread, there would have been 3 fewer tests.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I fixed your title for you. The holding of defensive military training exercises is not something that should be negotiable.

Apparently Bill Clinton cancelled the 1994-1996 Team Spirit exercises as an incentive to improve relations. So it's not unprecedented. Given that Mattis is saying war would be "tragedy on an unbelievable scale" it would be strange if it came about due to the refusal to cancel some exercises. It's not as if anything material is lost, and they could be stated up again at any time, as the current Foal Eagle series that began in 1997.

There's nothing material to be gained either..  Maybe if there were, such as offering to end joint exercises on the Korean peninsula once North Korea gets rid of its nuclear program, then I could see its use as a potential bargaining chip.

It's Memorial day. If a war starts, and 15,000 American troops die in Korea, then retrospectively there's nothing material to be gained from preventing this?

This particular capitulation would do nothing to prevent that.

Then what would, in your opinion? It would stop their nuclear and missile programs in their tracks.

Not really. All we would be doing would be giving them time to analyze the data from the tests they've already conducted and figure out what to do for improvement. Plus, I dont think for a moment that either Kim or Trump is going to do much more than bluster. We may get an eruption of two of conventional destruction, but this isn't going nuclear.

It doesn't have to go nuclear to be catastrophic. And if it is catastrophic, the chances of it going nuclear skyrocket. In any case, what other solution is there? North Korea isn't just going to fold up randomly one day. They can already analyze the data from the tests they've conducted to their hearts' content. But new tests are more valuable. If this agreement had been in place when I posted the thread, there would have been 3 fewer tests.

Which is precisely why even if we'd agreed to it, it wouldn't have been in place. North Korea isn't going to agree to a halt in testing until they're ready to take a pause anyway. And the moment they feel the need to test again they would.

[Beet]

I fixed your title for you. The holding of defensive military training exercises is not something that should be negotiable.

Apparently Bill Clinton cancelled the 1994-1996 Team Spirit exercises as an incentive to improve relations. So it's not unprecedented. Given that Mattis is saying war would be "tragedy on an unbelievable scale" it would be strange if it came about due to the refusal to cancel some exercises. It's not as if anything material is lost, and they could be stated up again at any time, as the current Foal Eagle series that began in 1997.

There's nothing material to be gained either..  Maybe if there were, such as offering to end joint exercises on the Korean peninsula once North Korea gets rid of its nuclear program, then I could see its use as a potential bargaining chip.

It's Memorial day. If a war starts, and 15,000 American troops die in Korea, then retrospectively there's nothing material to be gained from preventing this?

This particular capitulation would do nothing to prevent that.

Then what would, in your opinion? It would stop their nuclear and missile programs in their tracks.

Not really. All we would be doing would be giving them time to analyze the data from the tests they've already conducted and figure out what to do for improvement. Plus, I dont think for a moment that either Kim or Trump is going to do much more than bluster. We may get an eruption of two of conventional destruction, but this isn't going nuclear.

It doesn't have to go nuclear to be catastrophic. And if it is catastrophic, the chances of it going nuclear skyrocket. In any case, what other solution is there? North Korea isn't just going to fold up randomly one day. They can already analyze the data from the tests they've conducted to their hearts' content. But new tests are more valuable. If this agreement had been in place when I posted the thread, there would have been 3 fewer tests.

Which is precisely why even if we'd agreed to it, it wouldn't have been in place. North Korea isn't going to agree to a halt in testing until they're ready to take a pause anyway. And the moment they feel the need to test again they would.

How would you know? There have been so substantive agreements under Kim Jong Un so we do not whether he would really suspend tests. In any case, the moment they tested, we would know and would resume military exercises. So the worst case scenario would just be that, the same thing would have happened. The best case scenario is that we get to move forward on talks to freeze or roll back North Korea's weapons development. The upside is far better than the downside.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I fixed your title for you. The holding of defensive military training exercises is not something that should be negotiable.

Historically "defensive military training exercises" are a great way to cover preparations for a sudden offensive.

The US and South Korea often hold their exercises during harvest time. The paranoid North Korean regime then gets to choose between mobilizing in case it IS cover for an attack this time, or getting the crops in. (Because NK is so poor and paranoid there's a large overlap between their agricultural workforce and military.)

North Korea is screwed up in huge ways, but the Kim-headed monarchy does have reasons behind most of its decisions.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

This would not work, simply because NK would up and ignore China and keep on testing.

These missiles are necessary for the state's survival. They are unfortunately not going away.

[Beet]

This would not work, simply because NK would up and ignore China and keep on testing.

These missiles are necessary for the state's survival. They are unfortunately not going away.

You underestimate how bloodthirsty many Americans are, despite history. Many of them are itching for nuclear war. They don't care how many die. Kim doesn't understand he has to remove any excuse for them to start it.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

This would not work, simply because NK would up and ignore China and keep on testing.

These missiles are necessary for the state's survival. They are unfortunately not going away.

You underestimate how bloodthirsty many Americans are, despite history. Many of them are itching for nuclear war. They don't care how many die. Kim doesn't understand he has to remove any excuse for them to start it.

With Saddam and Gaddafi (and to a lesser extent Yanukovych, Assad, and Iran), Kim has been given a crystal clear lesson on why he should not under any circumstances whatsoever abandon his nuclear programs unless he wants to die and see his family members die too.