US private sector created 235K jobs in Feb. vs. 190K est BLS (UPDATED)
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  US private sector created 235K jobs in Feb. vs. 190K est BLS (UPDATED)
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Author Topic: US private sector created 235K jobs in Feb. vs. 190K est BLS (UPDATED)  (Read 3691 times)
ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #25 on: March 08, 2017, 08:03:33 PM »

oh, i agree with the "whatever the economy does the prez gets credit/blamed for it" but atm...whatever could trump have even done?
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #26 on: March 08, 2017, 08:11:56 PM »


I remember on an old right wing forum I used to frequent, Republicans would always take credit for Bill Clinton's economic boom by saying Reagan laid its foundation

Yup. This is how it always works.

The president has less control over the economy than either side is willing to admit.
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Xing
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« Reply #27 on: March 08, 2017, 08:41:10 PM »

Well, this isn't the first time a white man has gotten credit for a black man's work.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #28 on: March 08, 2017, 09:04:45 PM »

Seriously, Trump has done absolutely nothing for this, yet somehow you want to attribute it to him? Nah, we'll see how things are this time next year or so.

We likely are seeing a short term surge because of anticipation over what will happen.  The problem for Trump is that this is likely an overoptimistic surge which means that growth could stall in a few months which will then lead to discouragement that feeds off itself to start a recession in Spring 2018 which politically is the worst time for a recession to start for the party in power.  It's late enough that trying to blame it on the previous administration will have minimal resonance with the votes and early enough that those voters will feel the pain.  Unless it's a short two quarter recession, such a recession will hurt the GOP in the midterms.  Probably not enough for the Dems to retake the House unless it's a really vicious recession, but likely enough to set the stage for the Dems to retake the Senate in 2020 along with the White House and a couple of State Houses.

Still way too soon to say that the scenario above is what will definitely happen, but it is looking quite plausible this far out.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #29 on: March 08, 2017, 10:08:15 PM »

Remember how a crowd of sycophants would emerge to cheer the Dear Leader and remind us all of how good we really had it whenever we had a positive jobs report under the Obama administration, ignoring stagnant median pay, shifting sectors of work, precariousness, and the uneven geography of job growth?

Oh. I guess they're still going to do that. Roll Eyes

     This is what bothers me about economics. It makes pretensions of being the most rigorous of the social sciences, yet it is so intertwined with partisan politics that people refuse to recognize what is happening as long as they can spin the numbers.
Economists don't do that unless they're hacks.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #30 on: March 09, 2017, 08:58:12 AM »
« Edited: March 09, 2017, 09:06:45 AM by Simfan34 »

Let's not cherry-pick, and let's wait for the official Labor Department report tomorrow. Reuters:

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I Won - Get Over It
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« Reply #31 on: March 09, 2017, 09:38:35 AM »

Let's not cherry-pick, and let's wait for the official Labor Department report tomorrow. Reuters:

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It is not a cherry-picking (yet).

You are right. ADP might overestimate or underestimate the actual numbers.
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I Won - Get Over It
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« Reply #32 on: March 10, 2017, 08:39:51 AM »
« Edited: March 10, 2017, 08:43:01 AM by I Won - Get Over It »

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

The official number out. Not so dramatic increment as ADP predicted.

235,000 vs 190,000 predicted (+24%).

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Gass3268
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« Reply #33 on: March 10, 2017, 08:43:19 AM »

Remember when Republicans said that the BLS was fake news?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #34 on: March 10, 2017, 01:09:44 PM »

Remember when Republicans said that the BLS was fake news?

It really boils down to a simple formula:

Republicans in power / in position to take creditSad Not fake news
Republicans not in power / not in position to take credit: Fake news
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #35 on: March 10, 2017, 01:25:37 PM »

Remember how a crowd of sycophants would emerge to cheer the Dear Leader and remind us all of how good we really had it whenever we had a positive jobs report under the Obama administration, ignoring stagnant median pay, shifting sectors of work, precariousness, and the uneven geography of job growth?

Oh. I guess they're still going to do that. Roll Eyes

     This is what bothers me about economics. It makes pretensions of being the most rigorous of the social sciences, yet it is so intertwined with partisan politics that people refuse to recognize what is happening as long as they can spin the numbers.
Economists don't do that unless they're hacks.

     Economists aren't the only people who take serious interest in economics, though. Politicians look for the numbers they want, and this effect feeds back into academia. You could be perfectly intellectually honest as an economist, but if your work is convenient to either party then you can expect to get nice funding grants to do it. This creates a certain selection effect for what gets promoted in terms of research; an effect that is not healthy for the discipline as a whole.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #36 on: March 10, 2017, 01:51:45 PM »

In an alternate reality where the US LOST 235k jobs in Feb....the right wing response would be this:

"Omg, look at this terrible economy Obama left for Trump!   Thank goodness we have Trump to fix all these problems"

But since the US ADDED 235k jobs in Feb....we hear this:

"Hurray for Trump!!!"

......................
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #37 on: March 10, 2017, 02:05:24 PM »

Like it or not, Trump is going to get the credit for this as he's in office now. It's not fair, but that's how it works.

He'll also get the blame for the coming crash (unless he can pump the economy very hard and very fast, which he just might), no matter how hard he tries to dodge.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #38 on: March 10, 2017, 02:08:25 PM »

Remember when Republicans said that the BLS was fake news?

It really boils down to a simple formula:

Republicans in power / in position to take creditSad Not fake news
Republicans not in power / not in position to take credit: Fake news

Right on cue:

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Badger
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« Reply #39 on: March 10, 2017, 02:44:45 PM »

Wow, so much winning now that Barry is gone and replaced with our new Wonderful President. Barry voters might even have to get jobs.

-Krazen, I'm going to have to report this post for trolling.

Krazen needs to be kicked from this forum. All he does is troll, insult others, and add nothing to conversations.

Once every 5 months or so he'll make a non-trolling post on the Political Geography board and that alone apparently justifies keeping him around.

This X. 10. As long as Torie and Muon have another poster there who even rarely "contributes" to their mini-club, they'll never seriously push to remove him no matter how bad his overall behavior.
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Ban my account ffs!
snowguy716
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« Reply #40 on: March 10, 2017, 04:23:53 PM »

Wow, so much winning now that Barry is gone and replaced with our new Wonderful President. Barry voters might even have to get jobs.

-Krazen, I'm going to have to report this post for trolling.

Krazen needs to be kicked from this forum. All he does is troll, insult others, and add nothing to conversations.

Once every 5 months or so he'll make a non-trolling post on the Political Geography board and that alone apparently justifies keeping him around.

This X. 10. As long as Torie and Muon have another poster there who even rarely "contributes" to their mini-club, they'll never seriously push to remove him no matter how bad his overall behavior.
Then appeal directly to Nym.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #41 on: March 10, 2017, 05:13:44 PM »

Wow, so much winning now that Barry is gone and replaced with our new Wonderful President. Barry voters might even have to get jobs.

-Krazen, I'm going to have to report this post for trolling.

Krazen needs to be kicked from this forum. All he does is troll, insult others, and add nothing to conversations.

Once every 5 months or so he'll make a non-trolling post on the Political Geography board and that alone apparently justifies keeping him around.

This X. 10. As long as Torie and Muon have another poster there who even rarely "contributes" to their mini-club, they'll never seriously push to remove him no matter how bad his overall behavior.
Then appeal directly to Nym.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #42 on: March 10, 2017, 06:19:04 PM »

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Virginiá
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« Reply #43 on: March 11, 2017, 12:45:06 AM »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/03/10/heres-how-the-drudge-report-splashed-job-reports-for-obama-that-were-better-than-trumps/?utm_term=.94ead0845c90

Gotta love partisanship

(last one):




vs Obama's, July 2016:

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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #44 on: March 11, 2017, 12:51:45 AM »

Right on cue:

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to be fair, this was meant as a joke......

just not really helping, if you joke about such a thing after basing a big part of your campaign on dubios claims like that.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #45 on: March 11, 2017, 01:00:27 AM »

The RW media in this country has mastered hypocrisy in the most shameless way I have ever seen
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #46 on: March 11, 2017, 12:10:32 PM »

No Trump policy is responsible for the good economic numbers. Instead, like others said the additional unexpected growth comes from optimism from the business word that Trump will heavily deregulate and cut taxes combined with the relatively warm winter, especially in the Northeast. Optimism, as a result of Trump entering office and expectations for what he'll do, definitely helps these numbers, yet, we were bound to have a solid economic month anyways thanks to the weather. What really bothers me is that the same outlets and partisan hacks who tried to spin solid economic data during Obama's term as fake are praising the solid month under Trump. The hypocrisy is just ridiculous and the biggest problem emerging in politics is the politicizing of facts.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #47 on: March 11, 2017, 12:14:26 PM »
« Edited: March 11, 2017, 12:19:45 PM by Simfan34 »


Let's not pretend any mention of the labor force participation rate is merely right-wing concern trolling. The US is a genuine outlier in this regard, which precludes simply waving off the issue by mentioning demographic trends. There was a St Louis Fed report that made this point a while back.



Clearly this trend started around 2000, long before Obama, but the decline's picked up since 2008 and hasn't reversed since then.

All that said, there does appear to be some exuberance ("irrational" or otherwise) about Trump so it does not seem unreasonable to surmise that some of that has already manifested itself in hiring decisions.
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