New data suggests Hillary won white male/female millennials.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

Holy.  .

That was the dumbest thing I have read in a long time.

I wish I can agree with you, but the signs I've seen are very disconcerting.

With white women, I agree with you, since Trump and social conservatism has practically 0 support from the white women I know. It's the white (and some Asian) men who tend to go alt-right.

Of course, what I said so far is anecdotal, but we've already seen plenty of surveys on this forum that show (white male) Gen-Zers being pro-Trump. I'd love it if you could show otherwise (even if only to make me less fearful of the future).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Holy.  .

That was the dumbest thing I have read in a long time.

I wish I can agree with you, but the signs I've seen are very disconcerting.

With white women, I agree with you, since Trump and social conservatism has practically 0 support from the white women I know. It's the white (and some Asian) men who tend to go alt-right.

Of course, what I said so far is anecdotal, but we've already seen plenty of surveys on this forum that show (white male) Gen-Zers being pro-Trump. I'd love it if you could show otherwise (even if only to make me less fearful of the future).

Trump won white women against a white woman who made the fact that she was a woman a huge part of her campaign.

[Cashew]

If those numbers are correct the GOP will need to start making real efforts with minorities within the next 5 years.  Those numbers aren't sustainable long term.

Even if we just assumed that all constituencies remained static and old whites are being replaced by less conservative whites... that would be enough to cause the GOP problems... then you factor in the notion that the minority population is growing and it becomes implausible to continue this.

As others have stated, young whites are almost exclusively neo-Nazi/alt-right. The country will be voting like Mississippi and Alabama in 50 years.

Holy.  .

That was the dumbest thing I have read in a long time.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

If those numbers are correct the GOP will need to start making real efforts with minorities within the next 5 years.  Those numbers aren't sustainable long term.

Even if we just assumed that all constituencies remained static and old whites are being replaced by less conservative whites... that would be enough to cause the GOP problems... then you factor in the notion that the minority population is growing and it becomes implausible to continue this.

As others have stated, young whites are almost exclusively neo-Nazi/alt-right. The country will be voting like Mississippi and Alabama in 50 years.

Holy.  .

That was the dumbest thing I have read in a long time.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

If you look at the individual state polls CNN did, it doesn't line up. Trump won white males of all ages.

-Yeah. There's no way in hell HRC won with White male millennials. No way for the numbers to add up here.

[Cruzcrew]

While I'd expect more Generation Z kids to vote Democrat than Republican if they all voted, it seems to me like of the ones that are politically active, more of them are right wing, anti-PC, and anti-SJW. It also seems to show the problem with liberals being excessively politically correct where we start to see a more extreme reactionary movement to it.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Does it really matter if Hillary won white male millennials or not?  If Republicans can only win white males with the biggest upcoming voting bloc, in a diversifying electorate, they are in deep sh*t.  In 10 years you cannot have Democrats winning Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Other, White Females and just rely on a massive advantage among White Males to compensate for this...  Am I missing something here?

-Yes; when was the last time Dems won White females?

[RINO Tom]

Holy.  .

That was the dumbest thing I have read in a long time.

I wish I can agree with you, but the signs I've seen are very disconcerting.

With white women, I agree with you, since Trump and social conservatism has practically 0 support from the white women I know. It's the white (and some Asian) men who tend to go alt-right.

Of course, what I said so far is anecdotal, but we've already seen plenty of surveys on this forum that show (white male) Gen-Zers being pro-Trump. I'd love it if you could show otherwise (even if only to make me less fearful of the future).

Yeah, but being socially conservative or supporting Trump does not, in ANY sense of the word, make you a "Nazi."

[catographer]

Reactionaries have a good hold on segments of political discourse on the internet. I strongly believe that they are outrageously over-represented on the internet. My hypothesis for why this is is that the segment of extremist right-winger youths is small but passionate enough to have a disproportionate presence. They are also whiter and more male, groups which I find are over-represented on the internet as well. In reality, however, the majority of politically engaged youth today (13-21) are socially tolerant and non-religious, a.k.a. more or less liberal. The rest, maybe 40-50%ish of youth aren't politically engaged.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

Yeah, but being socially conservative or supporting Trump does not, in ANY sense of the word, make you a "Nazi."

True, but all modern-day "Nazis" in America do support Trump. It's basic set theory.

Reactionaries have a good hold on segments of political discourse on the internet. I strongly believe that they are outrageously over-represented on the internet. My hypothesis for why this is is that the segment of extremist right-winger youths is small but passionate enough to have a disproportionate presence. They are also whiter and more male, groups which I find are over-represented on the internet as well. In reality, however, the majority of politically engaged youth today (13-21) are socially tolerant and non-religious, a.k.a. more or less liberal. The rest, maybe 40-50%ish of youth aren't politically engaged.

I really hope this is true. I would more than welcome surveys on this, to convince me that we aren't regressing in terms of social progress.

That said, if what you said was true, isn't it still worrying that the most vocal youth are the Neo-Nazis? I mean, if half of the youth are politically unengaged, that's a large pool of potential recruits they can fish from. And even if that half aren't politically active, there's certainly a big chunk who may harbor similar thoughts to their active right-wing counterparts.

[Virginiá]

Generation z is 55% nonhispanic white. If they can get 70% of these voters and 30% of the nonwhite voters (especially the alt right/nationalistic Hispanics and Asians) then that's 52% of the vote share. This isn't as crazy as it sounds if you just look at how internet discussion forums from 2011-2016 went from being dominated by liberals and occasionally libertarians to conservatives and alt right "racial realists" and nationalists. People are quick to dismiss these as Russian trolls and old conservatives, but if you respond to them you quickly realize they're young Americans teens who genuinely believe this stuff. They pop up even in nonpolitical videos and threads.

Don't you think this is overly anecdotal? For instance I've seen some remark that Atlas is being overrun with alt-right Trump supporters but in reality most of that is coming from people like eharding, EnglishPete and a few others. Really vocal, posts a lot but overall not big in number.

Also if you looked at Internet forums to tried and gauge how things are going to play out IRL, given the demographics around here at least, you may assume that Aliens have descended from the heavens and snatched up all the women, and American politics is poised to be dominated by gay white males for the foreseeable future.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

Also if you looked at Internet forums to tried and gauge how things are going to play out IRL, given the demographics around here at least, you may assume that Aliens have descended from the heavens and snatched up all the women, and American politics is poised to be dominated by gay white males for the foreseeable future.

Even if heavy Intenet users are a skewed portion of the electorate, isn't it still concerning that alt-rightism is the dominant force right now? It's not like they exist in a (total) bubble; the Internet shapes real life, and having that tool dominated by these very skilled and determined individuals will certainly affect real-life politics, even if these individuals are a minority in real life. At the very least, they'll punch above their weight in how they shape our political discourse, which includes (re)normalizing racism and bigotry.

Plus the fact that the heavy Internet user demographic is so skewed in the first place (in no small part because of how toxic it has become) is not a good thing.

[Virginiá]

Although I think Trumps performance in office and whether or not he'll be a two term president will have a greater impact on Gen Z than anything else. Party loyalty typically starts around age 18 and the Party in power and how popular the president is at the time shapes their affiliation. So far from the Silent-Boomer-Xer-Millennial generations each one has gotten more and more liberal and left wing. We'll see if Z breaks the pattern or not by 2024.

What I do want to agree on is that eventually the pendelum will swing back and Democrats will become less appealing to new generations of voters who have broken with their peers en masse, like you suggested. I'm just not sure we are there yet, although I do get what you are saying and it is worrying to me.

Even if heavy Intenet users are a skewed portion of the electorate, isn't it still concerning that alt-rightism is the dominant force right now? It's not like they exist in a (total) bubble; the Internet shapes real life, and having that tool dominated by these very skilled and determined individuals will certainly affect real-life politics, even if these individuals are a minority in real life. At the very least, they'll punch above their weight in how they shape our political discourse, which includes (re)normalizing racism and bigotry.

Plus the fact that the heavy Internet user demographic is so skewed in the first place (in no small part because of how toxic it has become) is not a good thing.

Oh yes, extremely concerning. Even if future gen z voters aren't much less Democratic, it still doesn't change the fact that there at least seems to be some changes brewing. The nationalists control the narrative right now, and we must fight to take it back.

One thing that does give me hope is that the support Trump got from young white Millennials was concentrated among non-college educated Millennials, and college educated Millennials broke heavily for Clinton after going for Romney previously. The end result was that Clinton actually did better than Obama with young whites despite such huge changes in support among that sliver of the population. What this says to me is that even if some young whites are trending towards the GOP and this divisive message, it is concentrated among non-college educated whites, and that group is constantly shrinking as a portion of the population.

Trump's message is only alienating Republicans among future college educated voters, who not only will represent more and more of the population in the future but are much more reliable voters as well. It is not a winning message, and while it may cost us support in some states it will help us in others.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

There's a good chance that Generation z begins to look a lot more like millennials once they go off to college. There's no doubt in my mind that the vast majority of the alt right online crowd is 18 and younger right now.

You just gave me hope for them. Thank you.

I can imagine these folks going off to college...

"Wait, what do you mean not all Muslims are radical extremist terrorists? They're...they're mostly dorky pre-med, engineering, and International Studies majors! I...I..." *thinks about their lives while weeping in the corner*

While I doubt the super-vocal alt-right youth will actually change their minds (they'll probably shut themselves in their frat houses, dorm rooms and College Republican meetings if anything), exposure to diversity would certainly help with the more moderate, apolitical half of Gen Z.

[BaldEagle1991]

I have a feeling based on your discussions on how the younger people are voting or how they believe politically. The United States will likely be in an ethnic civil war in the 2030s or 2040s. It'll be like the ethnic based wars of South Sudan or Ukraine right now.

[BaldEagle1991]

I have a feeling based on your discussions on how the younger people are voting or how they believe politically. The United States will likely be in an ethnic civil war in the 2030s or 2040s. It'll be like the ethnic based wars of South Sudan or Ukraine right now.

Hopefully by 2024 we can get exit polls breakdown on age and race. The 18-24 demographic will basically be only gen z voter in this election.

Hopefully they're not even more racially polarized than their grandparents are.

Well they could be a mix, some being more open to diversity, however by the time Gen Z becomes mostly of age America will be so diverse some of the Gen Z Whites would be more hostile realizing they've lost a majority in the population. I think that's what will start the seeds for my prediction.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Generation z is 55% nonhispanic white. If they can get 70% of these voters and 30% of the nonwhite voters (especially the alt right/nationalistic Hispanics and Asians) then that's 52% of the vote share. This isn't as crazy as it sounds if you just look at how internet discussion forums from 2011-2016 went from being dominated by liberals and occasionally libertarians to conservatives and alt right "racial realists" and nationalists. People are quick to dismiss these as Russian trolls and old conservatives, but if you respond to them you quickly realize they're young Americans teens who genuinely believe this stuff. They pop up even in nonpolitical videos and threads.

Don't you think this is overly anecdotal? For instance I've seen some remark that Atlas is being overrun with alt-right Trump supporters but in reality most of that is coming from people like eharding, EnglishPete and a few others. Really vocal, posts a lot but overall not big in number.

Also if you looked at Internet forums to tried and gauge how things are going to play out IRL, given the demographics around here at least, you may assume that Aliens have descended from the heavens and snatched up all the women, and American politics is poised to be dominated by gay white males for the foreseeable future.

It is true. I hope you had the same opinion when Hillary talked about 'half of Trump's supporters is a basket of deplorables'. She wrongly generalized and deliberately associated the vocal (thanks to media), but tiny minority with all (half of) Trump’s supporters.

Because media and Democrats didn't. Instead they said that she is in fact more or less right.

The same applies to many protesters. They are often tiny, but vocal (again, thanks to media) minority. I'm not saying they do anything bad - quite the opposite! - protesting strengths and advances democracy. But one should not think they are representative. It is destructive.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Does it really matter if Hillary won white male millennials or not?  If Republicans can only win white males with the biggest upcoming voting bloc, in a diversifying electorate, they are in deep sh*t.  In 10 years you cannot have Democrats winning Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Other, White Females and just rely on a massive advantage among White Males to compensate for this...  Am I missing something here?

-Yes; when was the last time Dems won White females?

The whole f'ing point of this thread is that Dems won this group in terms of Millennials... so when this group becomes a larger share of the total vote Republican prospects will be no bueno.

-Dems did not win this group in terms of millenials, and your second assumption has been for ages refuted by the voting patterns of those now in their early 60s (who were the strongest McGovern demographic).

The GOP does face serious threats from the growing nonwhite vote, I've never doubted this. But the Dems also face serious threats due to the growing GOP share of the non-college White vote, and the very low fertility rate of White liberals. Overall, the Dem party has had a mild disadvantage relative to fundamentals over the past decade as a result of the latter. This may or may not continue.

[Virginiá]

-Dems did not win this group in terms of millenials, and your second assumption has been for ages refuted by the voting patterns of those now in their early 60s (who were the strongest McGovern demographic).

It's not refuted in its entirety:

1. Voting one way in one election doesn't solidfy partisan loyalty for life. It's repetition over time, particularly in young adulthood, that locks it in. White Millennials didn't just vote substantially less Republican in one election. This has been a constant theme since 2008.

2. Data I've seen shows very weak performance for Nixon among 18-29 year olds relative to this overall winning margin, but he still won that demographic, if only barely. Is there other data disputing this? I've think I've seen something of the sort but my requests for it on here were not met with a response. However, even strong McGovern performance in 1972 doesn't really make a difference here as I stated in #1.

3. Exit polls do not generally show the results of such small age ranges (60 - 65, for instance), and firms (Pew) that have analyzed the raw data have stated there are more pro-Democratic leanings for the boomers who grew up under Nixon.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Don't worry the white kids from Generation Z will be voting 90-10 for the GOP.


These kids idolize Hitler and love the "muh high IQ races" talking point. That's why YouTube and internet comment sections have gone from being liberal to Nazi these past 5 years.

You do realize people from this generation who don't post in internet comments exist? And YouTube comments have always been terrible.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is from 2006.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

As others have stated, young whites are almost exclusively neo-Nazi/alt-right. The country will be voting like Mississippi and Alabama in 50 years.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

TIL every single white high school student now posts on either The_Donald or /pol/.

[Hydera]

TIL every single white high school student now posts on either The_Donald or /pol/.

Well trump did win the 18-24 vote in Minnesota by five points so I'm guessing you have a story to tell?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The MN exit poll had 1636 respondents. That age bracket made up 10%. About 164 respondents. That's a 7.65% margin of error.

But even if accurate that's a far cry from the 90-10 whites everywhere voting like Mississippi claims we're seeing here.