New data suggests Hillary won white male/female millennials.
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Figueira
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« Reply #50 on: March 13, 2017, 06:42:47 PM »

Don't worry the white kids from Generation Z will be voting 90-10 for the GOP.


These kids idolize Hitler and love the "muh high IQ races" talking point. That's why YouTube and internet comment sections have gone from being liberal to Nazi these past 5 years.

You do realize people from this generation who don't post in internet comments exist? And YouTube comments have always been terrible.

Not to mention a lot of those people are adults.
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Figueira
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« Reply #51 on: March 13, 2017, 07:08:25 PM »

Don't worry the white kids from Generation Z will be voting 90-10 for the GOP.


These kids idolize Hitler and love the "muh high IQ races" talking point. That's why YouTube and internet comment sections have gone from being liberal to Nazi these past 5 years.

You do realize people from this generation who don't post in internet comments exist? And YouTube comments have always been terrible.

They were always terrible politically because they were either far left fringe, libertarian fringe, or crazy conspiratorial.

The white nationalist trend came about right when the gen z teens began to post more and more frequently online between 2013-2017.

How do you know that white supremacists are all teenagers?
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« Reply #52 on: March 13, 2017, 08:07:23 PM »

I don't know the demographic breakdown of Minnesota, but is a 5% margin among whites even enough for Republicans to carry the state?  I'd assume not.  Republicans need to start getting solid margins among younger white voters.  Whites in their 30's are also a fairly liberal group by today's standards.  These voters are now going to be entering the over 40 bracket...  Republicans can't break even among whites under 45 and lose minorities by massive margins and be viable going forward... there are not enough old whites to make this work.

-A 5% margin among Whites in MN (what Trump actually got) is not enough for Republicans to carry the state. But a 7% margin is.

Concentrating on age demos to predict the future is as nutty as concentrating on past state PVIs to do the same.
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« Reply #53 on: March 13, 2017, 08:15:31 PM »

I don't know the demographic breakdown of Minnesota, but is a 5% margin among whites even enough for Republicans to carry the state?  I'd assume not.  Republicans need to start getting solid margins among younger white voters.  Whites in their 30's are also a fairly liberal group by today's standards.  These voters are now going to be entering the over 40 bracket...  Republicans can't break even among whites under 45 and lose minorities by massive margins and be viable going forward... there are not enough old whites to make this work.

-A 5% margin among Whites in MN (what Trump actually got) is not enough for Republicans to carry the state. But a 7% margin is.

Concentrating on age demos to predict the future is as nutty as concentrating on past state PVIs to do the same.

uh no, because people don't just magically become more conservative as they age, despite the common myth.  The very oldest millenials/gen X'ers started voting Democrat in reaction to George Bush and have stayed loyal to the Democratic party nearly 20 years later.

-Likewise, Vermont became a strongly Democratic state in reaction to GWB. What else is new?

Again, concentrating on age demos to predict the future is as nutty as concentrating on past state PVIs to do the same.
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« Reply #54 on: March 13, 2017, 08:18:25 PM »
« Edited: March 13, 2017, 08:30:25 PM by Compassion Fills the Void »

Don't worry the white kids from Generation Z will be voting 90-10 for the GOP.


These kids idolize Hitler and love the "muh high IQ races" talking point. That's why YouTube and internet comment sections have gone from being liberal to Nazi these past 5 years.

You do realize people from this generation who don't post in internet comments exist? And YouTube comments have always been terrible.

They were always terrible politically because they were either far left fringe, libertarian fringe, or crazy conspiratorial.

The white nationalist trend came about right when the gen z teens began to post more and more frequently online between 2013-2017.

How do you know that white supremacists are all teenagers?

I'd say the vast majority of the alt right people in YouTube comment sections are 29 or younger. And they're having a strong influence on 13-19 year olds and are pushing them into a more and more nationalist direction.

You can tell by the way somebody posts and writes. These aren't old men in nursing homes writing these comments with Pepe avatars, it's younger people.

You're committing the subsample fallacy. Even if the majority of people posting those comments are in that age bracket, that doesn't mean the majority of people in that age bracket, much less ALMOST ALL of them agree with them. You're also committing a false dichotomy in assuming that the only people who could write comments like that are either old men in nursing homes or teenagers and that no other age groupings exist, which is clearly not true. You also brought up some statistically terrible examples. The_Donald has 375,000 subscribers...uh OK there's more people than that that live in just my city. r/altright had 15,000 subscribers...there's more HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS in my city alone than that. Those numbers do not disprove that it's a vocal minority. Go take a statistics class, seriously.

For comparison, it's obvious that most blacks in NYC are Democrats. Does that mean that most Democrats in NYC are black?

I don't have a pretty high opinion of the next generation either, but I'm willing to wager that 90% of them aren't going to have their entire outlook and views swayed by YouTube comments.
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« Reply #55 on: March 13, 2017, 08:21:54 PM »

BTW, there's no set year obviously when Gen Z ends, much like there isn't when it begins, but by just about any definition anyone born today would still fall into it. If we cut off Millennials around 1998 and then go another 18 years it just ended, if we just stick to 20 year intervals and make Millennials 1980-2000 then it'll still continue for three more years and plenty of Gen Zers haven't even been born yet.

But either way, you are seriously predicting that 90% of white toddlers today are going to grow up to be Nazis because...people most very stupid racist comments on YouTube and there's lots of dumbasses on 4chan posting Pepe memes.
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« Reply #56 on: March 13, 2017, 08:44:04 PM »

BTW, there's no set year obviously when Gen Z ends, much like there isn't when it begins, but by just about any definition anyone born today would still fall into it. If we cut off Millennials around 1998 and then go another 18 years it just ended, if we just stick to 20 year intervals and make Millennials 1980-2000 then it'll still continue for three more years and plenty of Gen Zers haven't even been born yet.

But either way, you are seriously predicting that 90% of white toddlers today are going to grow up to be Nazis because...people most very stupid racist comments on YouTube and there's lots of dumbasses on 4chan posting Pepe memes.

The 90% figure is obviously hyperbole, stop taking Internet forum comments so seriously.

The claim is also that whites nationwide will vote like Mississippi ones. That's a pretty hard statistical fact.

As for the sub sample fallacy, there's no other way to measure generation z at the moment besides a few sketchy polls. But assuming that most of generation z is politically apathetic, than those who are loudest and are the most politically active are gonna be the ones at the polling booths and volunteering on campaigns to get people behind a movement.

I'll take those "sketchy" polls over purely ancedotal stuff and statistical fallacies. I've taken college statistics courses, and I know that your claims are statistically nonsense that would be completely laughed at in academic journal.

There's nothing that shows Generation z youth being more liberal than the previous generation besides the "muh demographics" BS that's been fed to the American public for decades now. The only people out of generation z that are interested in politics are a bunch of nativists and nationalists. Find me a political forum online that caters to these people that's not filled with a bunch of white nationalists and you can't. And in a generation where at least half won't be willing to vote, then those who are noisy and willing to build a movement and push a message will be the ones who will define this generation politically.

Of course those morons aren't more liberal than my generation. There's a far cry between that and claiming that virtually all are Nazis and basing this on the fact that The_Donald has a number of subscribers (of all ages groups) that is less than at least 63 American cities and f[inks]ing YOUTUBE COMMENTS. I'm also laughing at the idea that the Internet wasn't full of racist sh!t until the last five years or so, I mean LOL. You have zero statistical data, just ancedotal stuff, and this wouldn't hold up at all in any type of academic setting.
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« Reply #57 on: March 13, 2017, 08:50:19 PM »

BTW, there's no set year obviously when Gen Z ends, much like there isn't when it begins, but by just about any definition anyone born today would still fall into it. If we cut off Millennials around 1998 and then go another 18 years it just ended, if we just stick to 20 year intervals and make Millennials 1980-2000 then it'll still continue for three more years and plenty of Gen Zers haven't even been born yet.

But either way, you are seriously predicting that 90% of white toddlers today are going to grow up to be Nazis because...people most very stupid racist comments on YouTube and there's lots of dumbasses on 4chan posting Pepe memes.

The 90% figure is obviously hyperbole, stop taking Internet forum comments so seriously.

The claim is also that whites nationwide will vote like Mississippi ones. That's a pretty hard statistical fact.

As for the sub sample fallacy, there's no other way to measure generation z at the moment besides a few sketchy polls. But assuming that most of generation z is politically apathetic, than those who are loudest and are the most politically active are gonna be the ones at the polling booths and volunteering on campaigns to get people behind a movement.

I'll take those "sketchy" polls over purely ancedotal stuff and statistical fallacies. I've taken college statistics courses, and I know that your claims are statistically nonsense that would be completely laughed at in academic journal.

There's nothing that shows Generation z youth being more liberal than the previous generation besides the "muh demographics" BS that's been fed to the American public for decades now. The only people out of generation z that are interested in politics are a bunch of nativists and nationalists. Find me a political forum online that caters to these people that's not filled with a bunch of white nationalists and you can't. And in a generation where at least half won't be willing to vote, then those who are noisy and willing to build a movement and push a message will be the ones who will define this generation politically.

Of course those morons aren't more liberal than my generation. There's a far cry between that and claiming that virtually all are Nazis and basing this on the fact that The_Donald has a number of subscribers (of all ages groups) that is less than at least 63 American cities and f[inks]ing YOUTUBE COMMENTS. I'm also laughing at the idea that the Internet wasn't full of racist sh!t until the last five years or so, I mean LOL. You have zero statistical data, just ancedotal stuff, and this wouldn't hold up at all in any type of academic setting.

Why are you so defensive?

You're not looking forward to the fatherland generation?

Because it's statistical garbage. You are trying to extrapolate an entire generation based on YouTube comments and some internet forums, without even verifying ages of the people making those. Do you seriously think The_Donald's 375k subscribers is statistically relevant in regards to the country's population?

Here's how the Nazi filled dorms at the University of Minnesota voted by the way (dorms, so these are almost all younger students, not upper classmen and grad students who tend to live off campus):

Republican      Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence   222   17.21%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine   909   70.47%   
Constitution Party      Darrell Castle and Scott Bradley   1   0.08%   
Legal Marijuana Now      Dan R. Vacek and Mark Elworth, Jr.   4   0.31%   
Socialist Workers Party      Alyson Kennedy and Osborne Hart   1   0.08%   
Green Party      Jill Stein and Howie Hawkins   27   2.09%   
American Delta Party      "Rocky" Roque De La Fuente and Michael Steinberg   4   0.31%   
Independence      Evan McMullin and Nathan Johnson   23   1.78%   
Libertarian Party      Gary Johnson and William Weld   83   6.43%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   16   1.24%   

Republican      Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence   345   18.73%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine   1254   68.08%   
Constitution Party      Darrell Castle and Scott Bradley   1   0.05%   
Legal Marijuana Now      Dan R. Vacek and Mark Elworth, Jr.   5   0.27%   
Socialist Workers Party      Alyson Kennedy and Osborne Hart   2   0.11%   
Green Party      Jill Stein and Howie Hawkins   49   2.66%   
American Delta Party      "Rocky" Roque De La Fuente and Michael Steinberg   1   0.05%   
Independence      Evan McMullin and Nathan Johnson   35   1.90%   
Libertarian Party      Gary Johnson and William Weld   124   6.73%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   26   1.41%   
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« Reply #58 on: March 13, 2017, 08:58:24 PM »

But seriously though. This generation is basically the Hitler youth reincarnated. It's just a fact.
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« Reply #59 on: March 13, 2017, 08:58:34 PM »

BTW, there's no set year obviously when Gen Z ends, much like there isn't when it begins, but by just about any definition anyone born today would still fall into it. If we cut off Millennials around 1998 and then go another 18 years it just ended, if we just stick to 20 year intervals and make Millennials 1980-2000 then it'll still continue for three more years and plenty of Gen Zers haven't even been born yet.

But either way, you are seriously predicting that 90% of white toddlers today are going to grow up to be Nazis because...people most very stupid racist comments on YouTube and there's lots of dumbasses on 4chan posting Pepe memes.

The 90% figure is obviously hyperbole, stop taking Internet forum comments so seriously.

The claim is also that whites nationwide will vote like Mississippi ones. That's a pretty hard statistical fact.

As for the sub sample fallacy, there's no other way to measure generation z at the moment besides a few sketchy polls. But assuming that most of generation z is politically apathetic, than those who are loudest and are the most politically active are gonna be the ones at the polling booths and volunteering on campaigns to get people behind a movement.

I'll take those "sketchy" polls over purely ancedotal stuff and statistical fallacies. I've taken college statistics courses, and I know that your claims are statistically nonsense that would be completely laughed at in academic journal.

There's nothing that shows Generation z youth being more liberal than the previous generation besides the "muh demographics" BS that's been fed to the American public for decades now. The only people out of generation z that are interested in politics are a bunch of nativists and nationalists. Find me a political forum online that caters to these people that's not filled with a bunch of white nationalists and you can't. And in a generation where at least half won't be willing to vote, then those who are noisy and willing to build a movement and push a message will be the ones who will define this generation politically.

Of course those morons aren't more liberal than my generation. There's a far cry between that and claiming that virtually all are Nazis and basing this on the fact that The_Donald has a number of subscribers (of all ages groups) that is less than at least 63 American cities and f[inks]ing YOUTUBE COMMENTS. I'm also laughing at the idea that the Internet wasn't full of racist sh!t until the last five years or so, I mean LOL. You have zero statistical data, just ancedotal stuff, and this wouldn't hold up at all in any type of academic setting.

Why are you so defensive?

You're not looking forward to the fatherland generation?

Because it's statistical garbage. You are trying to extrapolate an entire generation based on YouTube comments and some internet forums, without even verifying ages of the people making those. Do you seriously think The_Donald's 375k subscribers is statistically relevant in regards to the country's population?

Here's how the Nazi filled dorms at the University of Minnesota voted by the way (dorms, so these are almost all younger students, not upper classmen and grad students who tend to live off campus):

Republican      Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence   222   17.21%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine   909   70.47%   
Constitution Party      Darrell Castle and Scott Bradley   1   0.08%   
Legal Marijuana Now      Dan R. Vacek and Mark Elworth, Jr.   4   0.31%   
Socialist Workers Party      Alyson Kennedy and Osborne Hart   1   0.08%   
Green Party      Jill Stein and Howie Hawkins   27   2.09%   
American Delta Party      "Rocky" Roque De La Fuente and Michael Steinberg   4   0.31%   
Independence      Evan McMullin and Nathan Johnson   23   1.78%   
Libertarian Party      Gary Johnson and William Weld   83   6.43%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   16   1.24%   

Republican      Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence   345   18.73%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine   1254   68.08%   
Constitution Party      Darrell Castle and Scott Bradley   1   0.05%   
Legal Marijuana Now      Dan R. Vacek and Mark Elworth, Jr.   5   0.27%   
Socialist Workers Party      Alyson Kennedy and Osborne Hart   2   0.11%   
Green Party      Jill Stein and Howie Hawkins   49   2.66%   
American Delta Party      "Rocky" Roque De La Fuente and Michael Steinberg   1   0.05%   
Independence      Evan McMullin and Nathan Johnson   35   1.90%   
Libertarian Party      Gary Johnson and William Weld   124   6.73%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   26   1.41%   

The oldest members of Generation Z in 2016 were 16 years old and couldn't vote. Those are all millenial voters. The 13-17 year olds demographic of White gen Z will be staunchly pro Trump.

So basically you believe that your typical 18-year old today is a Millennial and thus almost certain to be a liberal but someone just one year younger than them is Gen Z and thus almost certain to be a Nazi. Last year high school senior classes were just as liberal as college students in 2008 but the juniors are almost all alt righters. As if generations are actually defined by an arbitrary year cut off and people who fall on each side of that year cut off are totally different and people born in 1998 have more in common with people born in 1982 than people born in 1999.

Yeah that makes perfect sense.
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« Reply #60 on: March 13, 2017, 09:05:54 PM »

BTW, there's no set year obviously when Gen Z ends, much like there isn't when it begins, but by just about any definition anyone born today would still fall into it. If we cut off Millennials around 1998 and then go another 18 years it just ended, if we just stick to 20 year intervals and make Millennials 1980-2000 then it'll still continue for three more years and plenty of Gen Zers haven't even been born yet.

But either way, you are seriously predicting that 90% of white toddlers today are going to grow up to be Nazis because...people most very stupid racist comments on YouTube and there's lots of dumbasses on 4chan posting Pepe memes.

The 90% figure is obviously hyperbole, stop taking Internet forum comments so seriously.

The claim is also that whites nationwide will vote like Mississippi ones. That's a pretty hard statistical fact.

As for the sub sample fallacy, there's no other way to measure generation z at the moment besides a few sketchy polls. But assuming that most of generation z is politically apathetic, than those who are loudest and are the most politically active are gonna be the ones at the polling booths and volunteering on campaigns to get people behind a movement.

I'll take those "sketchy" polls over purely ancedotal stuff and statistical fallacies. I've taken college statistics courses, and I know that your claims are statistically nonsense that would be completely laughed at in academic journal.

There's nothing that shows Generation z youth being more liberal than the previous generation besides the "muh demographics" BS that's been fed to the American public for decades now. The only people out of generation z that are interested in politics are a bunch of nativists and nationalists. Find me a political forum online that caters to these people that's not filled with a bunch of white nationalists and you can't. And in a generation where at least half won't be willing to vote, then those who are noisy and willing to build a movement and push a message will be the ones who will define this generation politically.

Of course those morons aren't more liberal than my generation. There's a far cry between that and claiming that virtually all are Nazis and basing this on the fact that The_Donald has a number of subscribers (of all ages groups) that is less than at least 63 American cities and f[inks]ing YOUTUBE COMMENTS. I'm also laughing at the idea that the Internet wasn't full of racist sh!t until the last five years or so, I mean LOL. You have zero statistical data, just ancedotal stuff, and this wouldn't hold up at all in any type of academic setting.

Why are you so defensive?

You're not looking forward to the fatherland generation?

Because it's statistical garbage. You are trying to extrapolate an entire generation based on YouTube comments and some internet forums, without even verifying ages of the people making those. Do you seriously think The_Donald's 375k subscribers is statistically relevant in regards to the country's population?

Here's how the Nazi filled dorms at the University of Minnesota voted by the way (dorms, so these are almost all younger students, not upper classmen and grad students who tend to live off campus):

Republican      Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence   222   17.21%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine   909   70.47%   
Constitution Party      Darrell Castle and Scott Bradley   1   0.08%   
Legal Marijuana Now      Dan R. Vacek and Mark Elworth, Jr.   4   0.31%   
Socialist Workers Party      Alyson Kennedy and Osborne Hart   1   0.08%   
Green Party      Jill Stein and Howie Hawkins   27   2.09%   
American Delta Party      "Rocky" Roque De La Fuente and Michael Steinberg   4   0.31%   
Independence      Evan McMullin and Nathan Johnson   23   1.78%   
Libertarian Party      Gary Johnson and William Weld   83   6.43%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   16   1.24%   

Republican      Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence   345   18.73%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine   1254   68.08%   
Constitution Party      Darrell Castle and Scott Bradley   1   0.05%   
Legal Marijuana Now      Dan R. Vacek and Mark Elworth, Jr.   5   0.27%   
Socialist Workers Party      Alyson Kennedy and Osborne Hart   2   0.11%   
Green Party      Jill Stein and Howie Hawkins   49   2.66%   
American Delta Party      "Rocky" Roque De La Fuente and Michael Steinberg   1   0.05%   
Independence      Evan McMullin and Nathan Johnson   35   1.90%   
Libertarian Party      Gary Johnson and William Weld   124   6.73%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   26   1.41%   

The oldest members of Generation Z in 2016 were 16 years old and couldn't vote. Those are all millenial voters. The 13-17 year olds demographic of White gen Z will be staunchly pro Trump.

So basically you believe that your typical 18-year old today is a Millennial and thus almost certain to be a liberal but someone just one year younger than them is Gen Z and thus almost certain to be a Nazi. Last year high school senior classes were just as liberal as college students in 2008 but the juniors are almost all alt righters. As if generations are actually defined by an arbitrary year cut off and people who fall on each side of that year cut off are totally different and people born in 1998 have more in common with people born in 1982 than people born in 1999.

Yeah that makes perfect sense.

The greatest generation was staunchly Democratic. The next generation, the silent generation, was staunchly Republican.

Generations matter. Gen Z will rebel from millenials by being super nationalistic and Nazi ish.

So you believe that for people on the cusps those who fell just into the Greatest Generation were just as Democratic as people 20 years older than them and people who fell just into the Silent Generation were just as Republican as people 20 years younger than them? Does that mean in a few years colleges will have the upper classmen all being ultra-Democratic but the lower classmen all being ultra-Republican?
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« Reply #61 on: March 13, 2017, 09:10:48 PM »

OK but you still have a statistically nonsensical theory in regards to the generation separation.

I mean I'm pretty close a generational cusp too, I'm a Millennial by just 1-3 years depending on your definition, so I interact a lot with the youngest Gen Xers and I don't have any serious cultural differences with them. Not to mention that they vote more like Millennials than Gen Xers in general do, for proof just look at the late 20s polls in the 2008 election or how college campuses voted in 2000. There wasn't an immediate jump from voting Republican to voting Democratic between Generation X and Millennials.
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« Reply #62 on: March 13, 2017, 09:12:42 PM »

Gimme an N...
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« Reply #63 on: March 13, 2017, 09:41:14 PM »

OK but you still have a statistically nonsensical theory in regards to the generation separation.

I mean I'm pretty close a generational cusp too, I'm a Millennial by just 1-3 years depending on your definition, so I interact a lot with the youngest Gen Xers and I don't have any serious cultural differences with them. Not to mention that they vote more like Millennials than Gen Xers in general do, for proof just look at the late 20s polls in the 2008 election or how college campuses voted in 2000. There wasn't an immediate jump from voting Republican to voting Democratic between Generation X and Millennials.

On a more serious note, pew research center shows that each generation has gotten more and more liberal starting with the silent generation onwards.

I still think that generation z is currently on the path towards being more conservative than millennials, but Trump could mess that all up.

-Same.
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« Reply #64 on: March 13, 2017, 10:33:53 PM »
« Edited: March 13, 2017, 10:38:58 PM by Admiral President »

I walk in here and I read two Democrats agreeing that most young white males idolize Adolf Hitler on the first page....

Democrats, are you intentionally trying to hand Trump a second term? Because this race baiting and identity politics is what cost you an election. I'm more liberal than conservative, but rhetoric like that is what keeps me from joining the Democratic Party and endorsing Democrats on a national level (except Jim Webb and Joe Manchin, who are the only rational people left in the Democratic Party at this point).

You guys are insane. Absolutely. Insane.
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« Reply #65 on: March 14, 2017, 07:49:52 AM »

I think the whole "Generation Z are Neo-Nazis" notion seem only applicable to young white boys. Most young people are apathetic or not very interested about politics in my own experience, so those 4chan and /thedonald users are probably very much a vocal minority.

At my school, there are definitely more conservative boys, though in a school poll in November Trump was only behind 3 points, 44-41%.
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« Reply #66 on: March 14, 2017, 02:05:50 PM »

I think the whole "Generation Z are Neo-Nazis" notion seem only applicable to young white boys. Most young people are apathetic or not very interested about politics in my own experience, so those 4chan and /thedonald users are probably very much a vocal minority.

Yes, remember that if Youtube Comments and 4Chan were your sole sources of information on the 2008 election, it would have seemed like Ron Paul was on track to win in a landslide, and the Alt-Right is popular among basically the same demographics Paul was.
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« Reply #67 on: March 14, 2017, 03:39:21 PM »

I think the whole "Generation Z are Neo-Nazis" notion seem only applicable to young white boys. Most young people are apathetic or not very interested about politics in my own experience, so those 4chan and /thedonald users are probably very much a vocal minority.

Yes, remember that if Youtube Comments and 4Chan were your sole sources of information on the 2008 election, it would have seemed like Ron Paul was on track to win in a landslide, and the Alt-Right is popular among basically the same demographics Paul was.
This. I noticed this with Berniecrats myself.
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« Reply #68 on: March 14, 2017, 06:09:08 PM »

A few things.

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There's a lot to respond to here, and I'm the writer of that timeline. So let me lay out three main principles behind the WWC shift to the Democratic Party.

1. I hold this view: cultural and racial reasons to vote only matter, insofar, that their economic condition enables them to vote the way they do. In other words, your economic position may dictate your political position, but the higher up you are, the more of a luxury your voting becomes.

2. Cordray wins the white working class because, at the end of the day, the simple reality is that neoliberal policies are affecting the working class in a highly negative way. Why would they vote for the Republicans if the Democrats present a strong alternative grounded in liberal orthodoxy (which has long been uncomfortable with neoliberalism?)

3. The polarization among racial and cultural lines threaten America's stability so one party must eventually win enough of a chunk of the other party to reconcile the polarization and to move the country forward. The alternative is civil war (which even then so is a way of settling the polarization, as well). Right now, Sanders Democrats hold the ability to probably unite 90% of Democrats and the white working class behind a common vision.

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I don't agree, but it's possible.

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I'm just randomly quoting you here to give a comprehensive answer.

In response to Technocratic Timmy's worries, I'd like to buttress his thoughts with a few of my own. Generation Z hasn't yet come of age but their earliest years were marked with an economy where median household income leveled off in 2000 and has never really significantly increased in real terms. The oldest became 12 years old right around the time of the Great Crash. A lot of their parents were laid off and the working class - white and minority alike - are economically stagnant.

Likewise, there's an important historical epoch that supports his viewpoint: the 1920s economy in Europe, which sparked a generation of Germans to embrace their cultural identity to cope with their weakening economic position and to "otherize" minority groups. It's not unreasonable to think that a similar exposition is happening here, especially among whites. TT cites YouTube commentary and Reddit forums and whatnot to buttress him and while I don't think that's hard data, it's not unreasonable to conclude, anecdotally, that this generation has residual racial issues among the white cohort.

Remember, the two parties are still fairly fixed on the neoliberal axis, so these whites may conclude that if all things being equal, they should vote for a culturally aligned party (e.g, the populist nationalist Republicans). Minorities may be doing the same thing, but voting Democratic in response.

I will also point out that Bernie got a lot of support from whites under 18 and millenial whites, so it's not an entirely uniformly Republican generation among whites and there may be substantial overlap between Trump/Bernie whites that exist as a potential vote reservoir for the major parties.

Obviously, this is all highly untenable. Which is why I think the Democrats eventually realize that the real problem is that the economic orthodoxy of the last 40 years no longer is a substantive answer to the nation's problems and move towards embracing a new economic agenda, which in turn breaks the logjam.

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« Reply #69 on: March 14, 2017, 07:49:41 PM »

Anyone going to address that Trump isn't going to a major factor to most of Gen Z anyway? Even if we use being born in 2016 as the cutoff for being in this generation, that means that someone born last year would be 4 in 2020 and thus when Trump is possibly leaving office. Even if (God forbid) this isn't the case, they'd be only 8. To be eligible to vote in 2024, you'd have to be born in 2006 at the latest. If we also accept that no one in Gen Z was eligible to vote in 2016 as has been claimed, this puts 1999 as the earliest one could be born in to fit into it. That means only the first seven years of Gen Z will be eligible to vote at the time, less than half if we accept 2016 as the final cutoff.

Trump is going to be at most a vague memory for all but the oldest Gen Zers and all this alt-right/Pepe stuff will be as relevant to most of them as Watergate was to Gen X, the Reagan Revolution and fall of the Soviet Union was to my age group, the Clinton impeachment was to younger Millennials or 9/11 and the Iraq War was to today's teenagers.
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« Reply #70 on: March 14, 2017, 07:54:49 PM »

I walk in here and I read two Democrats agreeing that most young white males idolize Adolf Hitler on the first page....

Democrats, are you intentionally trying to hand Trump a second term? Because this race baiting and identity politics is what cost you an election. I'm more liberal than conservative, but rhetoric like that is what keeps me from joining the Democratic Party and endorsing Democrats on a national level (except Jim Webb and Joe Manchin, who are the only rational people left in the Democratic Party at this point).

You guys are insane. Absolutely. Insane.

Really? Because I see one Democrat who is 20 years old and one guy who had a Green Party avatar until a few days ago who bitched constantly about Obama in 2008, later hated him so much he said he'd be willing to vote for Sarah Palin over him, ranted about gay marriage for most of Obama's first term, and then later went on to be an unironic Trump supporter defending his controversial policies while attacking liberals before arbitrarily turning on him mid-campaign, and now being some guy who thinks Jimmie Dore is the forefront of progressive politics. And a bunch of Democrats calling them idiots.

Yeah sounds like real major power players in the Democratic Party to me and definitely the people setting the message of the party. Seriously dude.
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« Reply #71 on: March 14, 2017, 11:08:17 PM »

Anyone going to address that Trump isn't going to a major factor to most of Gen Z anyway? Even if we use being born in 2016 as the cutoff for being in this generation, that means that someone born last year would be 4 in 2020 and thus when Trump is possibly leaving office. Even if (God forbid) this isn't the case, they'd be only 8. To be eligible to vote in 2024, you'd have to be born in 2006 at the latest. If we also accept that no one in Gen Z was eligible to vote in 2016 as has been claimed, this puts 1999 as the earliest one could be born in to fit into it. That means only the first seven years of Gen Z will be eligible to vote at the time, less than half if we accept 2016 as the final cutoff.

Trump is going to be at most a vague memory for all but the oldest Gen Zers and all this alt-right/Pepe stuff will be as relevant to most of them as Watergate was to Gen X, the Reagan Revolution and fall of the Soviet Union was to my age group, the Clinton impeachment was to younger Millennials or 9/11 and the Iraq War was to today's teenagers.

There's a decent chance that those born between 2000-2006 will turn 18 under the Trump administration. Yes, he does have a decent shot at reelection. The democrats are doing a piss poor job right now fighting him.

That does not debunk anything in my post.
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« Reply #72 on: March 14, 2017, 11:12:32 PM »

OK what's the typical lifespan for memes? Now after thinking about that, think of the lifespan for the following social movements that flourished online:

-The anti-Iraq war movement.
-Paulite libertarianism.
-Occupy Wall Street
-The Tea Party.

Yes, I'm so sure Pepe-meming alt-righters will define the internet in the 2020s. Roll Eyes
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« Reply #73 on: March 14, 2017, 11:19:23 PM »

And are they still around in any notable way? Remember you are predicting that all of Generation Z including people that haven't been born yet are going to be predominately Nazis on the basis of YouTube comments* and some internet wastelands like 4chan and some subreddits.

*as noted based on this logic most Millennials would be crazy libertarians, not Millennials.
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« Reply #74 on: March 14, 2017, 11:21:02 PM »
« Edited: March 14, 2017, 11:23:34 PM by Compassion Fills the Void »

Also do you understand in the slightest why making a projection about the country the size of the US based on a subreddit having 15k subscribers is statistically nonsense? There's more people in Sibley County, MN than every subscribed to r/altright.

Also more people in simply my county alone (and yours for that matter) voted for Hillary than who subscribe to r/The_Donald. Are you familiar with the term "statistically insignificant"?

According to this, over 16 million unique visitors visit DailyKos a month, that's more than 42 times the number of subscribers to The_Donald. In terms of measuring popular support, such statistics are utterly meaningless.
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