New data suggests Hillary won white male/female millennials. (user search)
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  New data suggests Hillary won white male/female millennials. (search mode)
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Author Topic: New data suggests Hillary won white male/female millennials.  (Read 12633 times)
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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E: -6.50, S: -6.67

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« on: March 13, 2017, 08:27:01 AM »

Don't worry the white kids from Generation Z will be voting 90-10 for the GOP.


These kids idolize Hitler and love the "muh high IQ races" talking point. That's why YouTube and internet comment sections have gone from being liberal to Nazi these past 5 years.

You do realize people from this generation who don't post in internet comments exist? And YouTube comments have always been terrible.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2017, 08:45:32 AM »



This is from 2006.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2017, 08:57:03 AM »

TIL every single white high school student now posts on either The_Donald or /pol/.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2017, 12:38:17 PM »

The MN exit poll had 1636 respondents. That age bracket made up 10%. About 164 respondents. That's a 7.65% margin of error.

But even if accurate that's a far cry from the 90-10 whites everywhere voting like Mississippi claims we're seeing here.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2017, 08:18:25 PM »
« Edited: March 13, 2017, 08:30:25 PM by Compassion Fills the Void »

Don't worry the white kids from Generation Z will be voting 90-10 for the GOP.


These kids idolize Hitler and love the "muh high IQ races" talking point. That's why YouTube and internet comment sections have gone from being liberal to Nazi these past 5 years.

You do realize people from this generation who don't post in internet comments exist? And YouTube comments have always been terrible.

They were always terrible politically because they were either far left fringe, libertarian fringe, or crazy conspiratorial.

The white nationalist trend came about right when the gen z teens began to post more and more frequently online between 2013-2017.

How do you know that white supremacists are all teenagers?

I'd say the vast majority of the alt right people in YouTube comment sections are 29 or younger. And they're having a strong influence on 13-19 year olds and are pushing them into a more and more nationalist direction.

You can tell by the way somebody posts and writes. These aren't old men in nursing homes writing these comments with Pepe avatars, it's younger people.

You're committing the subsample fallacy. Even if the majority of people posting those comments are in that age bracket, that doesn't mean the majority of people in that age bracket, much less ALMOST ALL of them agree with them. You're also committing a false dichotomy in assuming that the only people who could write comments like that are either old men in nursing homes or teenagers and that no other age groupings exist, which is clearly not true. You also brought up some statistically terrible examples. The_Donald has 375,000 subscribers...uh OK there's more people than that that live in just my city. r/altright had 15,000 subscribers...there's more HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS in my city alone than that. Those numbers do not disprove that it's a vocal minority. Go take a statistics class, seriously.

For comparison, it's obvious that most blacks in NYC are Democrats. Does that mean that most Democrats in NYC are black?

I don't have a pretty high opinion of the next generation either, but I'm willing to wager that 90% of them aren't going to have their entire outlook and views swayed by YouTube comments.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2017, 08:21:54 PM »

BTW, there's no set year obviously when Gen Z ends, much like there isn't when it begins, but by just about any definition anyone born today would still fall into it. If we cut off Millennials around 1998 and then go another 18 years it just ended, if we just stick to 20 year intervals and make Millennials 1980-2000 then it'll still continue for three more years and plenty of Gen Zers haven't even been born yet.

But either way, you are seriously predicting that 90% of white toddlers today are going to grow up to be Nazis because...people most very stupid racist comments on YouTube and there's lots of dumbasses on 4chan posting Pepe memes.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2017, 08:44:04 PM »

BTW, there's no set year obviously when Gen Z ends, much like there isn't when it begins, but by just about any definition anyone born today would still fall into it. If we cut off Millennials around 1998 and then go another 18 years it just ended, if we just stick to 20 year intervals and make Millennials 1980-2000 then it'll still continue for three more years and plenty of Gen Zers haven't even been born yet.

But either way, you are seriously predicting that 90% of white toddlers today are going to grow up to be Nazis because...people most very stupid racist comments on YouTube and there's lots of dumbasses on 4chan posting Pepe memes.

The 90% figure is obviously hyperbole, stop taking Internet forum comments so seriously.

The claim is also that whites nationwide will vote like Mississippi ones. That's a pretty hard statistical fact.

As for the sub sample fallacy, there's no other way to measure generation z at the moment besides a few sketchy polls. But assuming that most of generation z is politically apathetic, than those who are loudest and are the most politically active are gonna be the ones at the polling booths and volunteering on campaigns to get people behind a movement.

I'll take those "sketchy" polls over purely ancedotal stuff and statistical fallacies. I've taken college statistics courses, and I know that your claims are statistically nonsense that would be completely laughed at in academic journal.

There's nothing that shows Generation z youth being more liberal than the previous generation besides the "muh demographics" BS that's been fed to the American public for decades now. The only people out of generation z that are interested in politics are a bunch of nativists and nationalists. Find me a political forum online that caters to these people that's not filled with a bunch of white nationalists and you can't. And in a generation where at least half won't be willing to vote, then those who are noisy and willing to build a movement and push a message will be the ones who will define this generation politically.

Of course those morons aren't more liberal than my generation. There's a far cry between that and claiming that virtually all are Nazis and basing this on the fact that The_Donald has a number of subscribers (of all ages groups) that is less than at least 63 American cities and f[inks]ing YOUTUBE COMMENTS. I'm also laughing at the idea that the Internet wasn't full of racist sh!t until the last five years or so, I mean LOL. You have zero statistical data, just ancedotal stuff, and this wouldn't hold up at all in any type of academic setting.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2017, 08:50:19 PM »

BTW, there's no set year obviously when Gen Z ends, much like there isn't when it begins, but by just about any definition anyone born today would still fall into it. If we cut off Millennials around 1998 and then go another 18 years it just ended, if we just stick to 20 year intervals and make Millennials 1980-2000 then it'll still continue for three more years and plenty of Gen Zers haven't even been born yet.

But either way, you are seriously predicting that 90% of white toddlers today are going to grow up to be Nazis because...people most very stupid racist comments on YouTube and there's lots of dumbasses on 4chan posting Pepe memes.

The 90% figure is obviously hyperbole, stop taking Internet forum comments so seriously.

The claim is also that whites nationwide will vote like Mississippi ones. That's a pretty hard statistical fact.

As for the sub sample fallacy, there's no other way to measure generation z at the moment besides a few sketchy polls. But assuming that most of generation z is politically apathetic, than those who are loudest and are the most politically active are gonna be the ones at the polling booths and volunteering on campaigns to get people behind a movement.

I'll take those "sketchy" polls over purely ancedotal stuff and statistical fallacies. I've taken college statistics courses, and I know that your claims are statistically nonsense that would be completely laughed at in academic journal.

There's nothing that shows Generation z youth being more liberal than the previous generation besides the "muh demographics" BS that's been fed to the American public for decades now. The only people out of generation z that are interested in politics are a bunch of nativists and nationalists. Find me a political forum online that caters to these people that's not filled with a bunch of white nationalists and you can't. And in a generation where at least half won't be willing to vote, then those who are noisy and willing to build a movement and push a message will be the ones who will define this generation politically.

Of course those morons aren't more liberal than my generation. There's a far cry between that and claiming that virtually all are Nazis and basing this on the fact that The_Donald has a number of subscribers (of all ages groups) that is less than at least 63 American cities and f[inks]ing YOUTUBE COMMENTS. I'm also laughing at the idea that the Internet wasn't full of racist sh!t until the last five years or so, I mean LOL. You have zero statistical data, just ancedotal stuff, and this wouldn't hold up at all in any type of academic setting.

Why are you so defensive?

You're not looking forward to the fatherland generation?

Because it's statistical garbage. You are trying to extrapolate an entire generation based on YouTube comments and some internet forums, without even verifying ages of the people making those. Do you seriously think The_Donald's 375k subscribers is statistically relevant in regards to the country's population?

Here's how the Nazi filled dorms at the University of Minnesota voted by the way (dorms, so these are almost all younger students, not upper classmen and grad students who tend to live off campus):

Republican      Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence   222   17.21%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine   909   70.47%   
Constitution Party      Darrell Castle and Scott Bradley   1   0.08%   
Legal Marijuana Now      Dan R. Vacek and Mark Elworth, Jr.   4   0.31%   
Socialist Workers Party      Alyson Kennedy and Osborne Hart   1   0.08%   
Green Party      Jill Stein and Howie Hawkins   27   2.09%   
American Delta Party      "Rocky" Roque De La Fuente and Michael Steinberg   4   0.31%   
Independence      Evan McMullin and Nathan Johnson   23   1.78%   
Libertarian Party      Gary Johnson and William Weld   83   6.43%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   16   1.24%   

Republican      Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence   345   18.73%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine   1254   68.08%   
Constitution Party      Darrell Castle and Scott Bradley   1   0.05%   
Legal Marijuana Now      Dan R. Vacek and Mark Elworth, Jr.   5   0.27%   
Socialist Workers Party      Alyson Kennedy and Osborne Hart   2   0.11%   
Green Party      Jill Stein and Howie Hawkins   49   2.66%   
American Delta Party      "Rocky" Roque De La Fuente and Michael Steinberg   1   0.05%   
Independence      Evan McMullin and Nathan Johnson   35   1.90%   
Libertarian Party      Gary Johnson and William Weld   124   6.73%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   26   1.41%   
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2017, 08:58:34 PM »

BTW, there's no set year obviously when Gen Z ends, much like there isn't when it begins, but by just about any definition anyone born today would still fall into it. If we cut off Millennials around 1998 and then go another 18 years it just ended, if we just stick to 20 year intervals and make Millennials 1980-2000 then it'll still continue for three more years and plenty of Gen Zers haven't even been born yet.

But either way, you are seriously predicting that 90% of white toddlers today are going to grow up to be Nazis because...people most very stupid racist comments on YouTube and there's lots of dumbasses on 4chan posting Pepe memes.

The 90% figure is obviously hyperbole, stop taking Internet forum comments so seriously.

The claim is also that whites nationwide will vote like Mississippi ones. That's a pretty hard statistical fact.

As for the sub sample fallacy, there's no other way to measure generation z at the moment besides a few sketchy polls. But assuming that most of generation z is politically apathetic, than those who are loudest and are the most politically active are gonna be the ones at the polling booths and volunteering on campaigns to get people behind a movement.

I'll take those "sketchy" polls over purely ancedotal stuff and statistical fallacies. I've taken college statistics courses, and I know that your claims are statistically nonsense that would be completely laughed at in academic journal.

There's nothing that shows Generation z youth being more liberal than the previous generation besides the "muh demographics" BS that's been fed to the American public for decades now. The only people out of generation z that are interested in politics are a bunch of nativists and nationalists. Find me a political forum online that caters to these people that's not filled with a bunch of white nationalists and you can't. And in a generation where at least half won't be willing to vote, then those who are noisy and willing to build a movement and push a message will be the ones who will define this generation politically.

Of course those morons aren't more liberal than my generation. There's a far cry between that and claiming that virtually all are Nazis and basing this on the fact that The_Donald has a number of subscribers (of all ages groups) that is less than at least 63 American cities and f[inks]ing YOUTUBE COMMENTS. I'm also laughing at the idea that the Internet wasn't full of racist sh!t until the last five years or so, I mean LOL. You have zero statistical data, just ancedotal stuff, and this wouldn't hold up at all in any type of academic setting.

Why are you so defensive?

You're not looking forward to the fatherland generation?

Because it's statistical garbage. You are trying to extrapolate an entire generation based on YouTube comments and some internet forums, without even verifying ages of the people making those. Do you seriously think The_Donald's 375k subscribers is statistically relevant in regards to the country's population?

Here's how the Nazi filled dorms at the University of Minnesota voted by the way (dorms, so these are almost all younger students, not upper classmen and grad students who tend to live off campus):

Republican      Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence   222   17.21%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine   909   70.47%   
Constitution Party      Darrell Castle and Scott Bradley   1   0.08%   
Legal Marijuana Now      Dan R. Vacek and Mark Elworth, Jr.   4   0.31%   
Socialist Workers Party      Alyson Kennedy and Osborne Hart   1   0.08%   
Green Party      Jill Stein and Howie Hawkins   27   2.09%   
American Delta Party      "Rocky" Roque De La Fuente and Michael Steinberg   4   0.31%   
Independence      Evan McMullin and Nathan Johnson   23   1.78%   
Libertarian Party      Gary Johnson and William Weld   83   6.43%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   16   1.24%   

Republican      Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence   345   18.73%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine   1254   68.08%   
Constitution Party      Darrell Castle and Scott Bradley   1   0.05%   
Legal Marijuana Now      Dan R. Vacek and Mark Elworth, Jr.   5   0.27%   
Socialist Workers Party      Alyson Kennedy and Osborne Hart   2   0.11%   
Green Party      Jill Stein and Howie Hawkins   49   2.66%   
American Delta Party      "Rocky" Roque De La Fuente and Michael Steinberg   1   0.05%   
Independence      Evan McMullin and Nathan Johnson   35   1.90%   
Libertarian Party      Gary Johnson and William Weld   124   6.73%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   26   1.41%   

The oldest members of Generation Z in 2016 were 16 years old and couldn't vote. Those are all millenial voters. The 13-17 year olds demographic of White gen Z will be staunchly pro Trump.

So basically you believe that your typical 18-year old today is a Millennial and thus almost certain to be a liberal but someone just one year younger than them is Gen Z and thus almost certain to be a Nazi. Last year high school senior classes were just as liberal as college students in 2008 but the juniors are almost all alt righters. As if generations are actually defined by an arbitrary year cut off and people who fall on each side of that year cut off are totally different and people born in 1998 have more in common with people born in 1982 than people born in 1999.

Yeah that makes perfect sense.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2017, 09:05:54 PM »

BTW, there's no set year obviously when Gen Z ends, much like there isn't when it begins, but by just about any definition anyone born today would still fall into it. If we cut off Millennials around 1998 and then go another 18 years it just ended, if we just stick to 20 year intervals and make Millennials 1980-2000 then it'll still continue for three more years and plenty of Gen Zers haven't even been born yet.

But either way, you are seriously predicting that 90% of white toddlers today are going to grow up to be Nazis because...people most very stupid racist comments on YouTube and there's lots of dumbasses on 4chan posting Pepe memes.

The 90% figure is obviously hyperbole, stop taking Internet forum comments so seriously.

The claim is also that whites nationwide will vote like Mississippi ones. That's a pretty hard statistical fact.

As for the sub sample fallacy, there's no other way to measure generation z at the moment besides a few sketchy polls. But assuming that most of generation z is politically apathetic, than those who are loudest and are the most politically active are gonna be the ones at the polling booths and volunteering on campaigns to get people behind a movement.

I'll take those "sketchy" polls over purely ancedotal stuff and statistical fallacies. I've taken college statistics courses, and I know that your claims are statistically nonsense that would be completely laughed at in academic journal.

There's nothing that shows Generation z youth being more liberal than the previous generation besides the "muh demographics" BS that's been fed to the American public for decades now. The only people out of generation z that are interested in politics are a bunch of nativists and nationalists. Find me a political forum online that caters to these people that's not filled with a bunch of white nationalists and you can't. And in a generation where at least half won't be willing to vote, then those who are noisy and willing to build a movement and push a message will be the ones who will define this generation politically.

Of course those morons aren't more liberal than my generation. There's a far cry between that and claiming that virtually all are Nazis and basing this on the fact that The_Donald has a number of subscribers (of all ages groups) that is less than at least 63 American cities and f[inks]ing YOUTUBE COMMENTS. I'm also laughing at the idea that the Internet wasn't full of racist sh!t until the last five years or so, I mean LOL. You have zero statistical data, just ancedotal stuff, and this wouldn't hold up at all in any type of academic setting.

Why are you so defensive?

You're not looking forward to the fatherland generation?

Because it's statistical garbage. You are trying to extrapolate an entire generation based on YouTube comments and some internet forums, without even verifying ages of the people making those. Do you seriously think The_Donald's 375k subscribers is statistically relevant in regards to the country's population?

Here's how the Nazi filled dorms at the University of Minnesota voted by the way (dorms, so these are almost all younger students, not upper classmen and grad students who tend to live off campus):

Republican      Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence   222   17.21%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine   909   70.47%   
Constitution Party      Darrell Castle and Scott Bradley   1   0.08%   
Legal Marijuana Now      Dan R. Vacek and Mark Elworth, Jr.   4   0.31%   
Socialist Workers Party      Alyson Kennedy and Osborne Hart   1   0.08%   
Green Party      Jill Stein and Howie Hawkins   27   2.09%   
American Delta Party      "Rocky" Roque De La Fuente and Michael Steinberg   4   0.31%   
Independence      Evan McMullin and Nathan Johnson   23   1.78%   
Libertarian Party      Gary Johnson and William Weld   83   6.43%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   16   1.24%   

Republican      Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence   345   18.73%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine   1254   68.08%   
Constitution Party      Darrell Castle and Scott Bradley   1   0.05%   
Legal Marijuana Now      Dan R. Vacek and Mark Elworth, Jr.   5   0.27%   
Socialist Workers Party      Alyson Kennedy and Osborne Hart   2   0.11%   
Green Party      Jill Stein and Howie Hawkins   49   2.66%   
American Delta Party      "Rocky" Roque De La Fuente and Michael Steinberg   1   0.05%   
Independence      Evan McMullin and Nathan Johnson   35   1.90%   
Libertarian Party      Gary Johnson and William Weld   124   6.73%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   26   1.41%   

The oldest members of Generation Z in 2016 were 16 years old and couldn't vote. Those are all millenial voters. The 13-17 year olds demographic of White gen Z will be staunchly pro Trump.

So basically you believe that your typical 18-year old today is a Millennial and thus almost certain to be a liberal but someone just one year younger than them is Gen Z and thus almost certain to be a Nazi. Last year high school senior classes were just as liberal as college students in 2008 but the juniors are almost all alt righters. As if generations are actually defined by an arbitrary year cut off and people who fall on each side of that year cut off are totally different and people born in 1998 have more in common with people born in 1982 than people born in 1999.

Yeah that makes perfect sense.

The greatest generation was staunchly Democratic. The next generation, the silent generation, was staunchly Republican.

Generations matter. Gen Z will rebel from millenials by being super nationalistic and Nazi ish.

So you believe that for people on the cusps those who fell just into the Greatest Generation were just as Democratic as people 20 years older than them and people who fell just into the Silent Generation were just as Republican as people 20 years younger than them? Does that mean in a few years colleges will have the upper classmen all being ultra-Democratic but the lower classmen all being ultra-Republican?
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2017, 09:10:48 PM »

OK but you still have a statistically nonsensical theory in regards to the generation separation.

I mean I'm pretty close a generational cusp too, I'm a Millennial by just 1-3 years depending on your definition, so I interact a lot with the youngest Gen Xers and I don't have any serious cultural differences with them. Not to mention that they vote more like Millennials than Gen Xers in general do, for proof just look at the late 20s polls in the 2008 election or how college campuses voted in 2000. There wasn't an immediate jump from voting Republican to voting Democratic between Generation X and Millennials.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #11 on: March 14, 2017, 07:49:41 PM »

Anyone going to address that Trump isn't going to a major factor to most of Gen Z anyway? Even if we use being born in 2016 as the cutoff for being in this generation, that means that someone born last year would be 4 in 2020 and thus when Trump is possibly leaving office. Even if (God forbid) this isn't the case, they'd be only 8. To be eligible to vote in 2024, you'd have to be born in 2006 at the latest. If we also accept that no one in Gen Z was eligible to vote in 2016 as has been claimed, this puts 1999 as the earliest one could be born in to fit into it. That means only the first seven years of Gen Z will be eligible to vote at the time, less than half if we accept 2016 as the final cutoff.

Trump is going to be at most a vague memory for all but the oldest Gen Zers and all this alt-right/Pepe stuff will be as relevant to most of them as Watergate was to Gen X, the Reagan Revolution and fall of the Soviet Union was to my age group, the Clinton impeachment was to younger Millennials or 9/11 and the Iraq War was to today's teenagers.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #12 on: March 14, 2017, 07:54:49 PM »

I walk in here and I read two Democrats agreeing that most young white males idolize Adolf Hitler on the first page....

Democrats, are you intentionally trying to hand Trump a second term? Because this race baiting and identity politics is what cost you an election. I'm more liberal than conservative, but rhetoric like that is what keeps me from joining the Democratic Party and endorsing Democrats on a national level (except Jim Webb and Joe Manchin, who are the only rational people left in the Democratic Party at this point).

You guys are insane. Absolutely. Insane.

Really? Because I see one Democrat who is 20 years old and one guy who had a Green Party avatar until a few days ago who bitched constantly about Obama in 2008, later hated him so much he said he'd be willing to vote for Sarah Palin over him, ranted about gay marriage for most of Obama's first term, and then later went on to be an unironic Trump supporter defending his controversial policies while attacking liberals before arbitrarily turning on him mid-campaign, and now being some guy who thinks Jimmie Dore is the forefront of progressive politics. And a bunch of Democrats calling them idiots.

Yeah sounds like real major power players in the Democratic Party to me and definitely the people setting the message of the party. Seriously dude.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #13 on: March 14, 2017, 11:08:17 PM »

Anyone going to address that Trump isn't going to a major factor to most of Gen Z anyway? Even if we use being born in 2016 as the cutoff for being in this generation, that means that someone born last year would be 4 in 2020 and thus when Trump is possibly leaving office. Even if (God forbid) this isn't the case, they'd be only 8. To be eligible to vote in 2024, you'd have to be born in 2006 at the latest. If we also accept that no one in Gen Z was eligible to vote in 2016 as has been claimed, this puts 1999 as the earliest one could be born in to fit into it. That means only the first seven years of Gen Z will be eligible to vote at the time, less than half if we accept 2016 as the final cutoff.

Trump is going to be at most a vague memory for all but the oldest Gen Zers and all this alt-right/Pepe stuff will be as relevant to most of them as Watergate was to Gen X, the Reagan Revolution and fall of the Soviet Union was to my age group, the Clinton impeachment was to younger Millennials or 9/11 and the Iraq War was to today's teenagers.

There's a decent chance that those born between 2000-2006 will turn 18 under the Trump administration. Yes, he does have a decent shot at reelection. The democrats are doing a piss poor job right now fighting him.

That does not debunk anything in my post.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #14 on: March 14, 2017, 11:12:32 PM »

OK what's the typical lifespan for memes? Now after thinking about that, think of the lifespan for the following social movements that flourished online:

-The anti-Iraq war movement.
-Paulite libertarianism.
-Occupy Wall Street
-The Tea Party.

Yes, I'm so sure Pepe-meming alt-righters will define the internet in the 2020s. Roll Eyes
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #15 on: March 14, 2017, 11:19:23 PM »

And are they still around in any notable way? Remember you are predicting that all of Generation Z including people that haven't been born yet are going to be predominately Nazis on the basis of YouTube comments* and some internet wastelands like 4chan and some subreddits.

*as noted based on this logic most Millennials would be crazy libertarians, not Millennials.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

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« Reply #16 on: March 14, 2017, 11:21:02 PM »
« Edited: March 14, 2017, 11:23:34 PM by Compassion Fills the Void »

Also do you understand in the slightest why making a projection about the country the size of the US based on a subreddit having 15k subscribers is statistically nonsense? There's more people in Sibley County, MN than every subscribed to r/altright.

Also more people in simply my county alone (and yours for that matter) voted for Hillary than who subscribe to r/The_Donald. Are you familiar with the term "statistically insignificant"?

According to this, over 16 million unique visitors visit DailyKos a month, that's more than 42 times the number of subscribers to The_Donald. In terms of measuring popular support, such statistics are utterly meaningless.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
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Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #17 on: March 14, 2017, 11:29:23 PM »

I didn't say all of Generation Z. I said 90% of the white ones. If the generation is 55% nonhispanic white that'll be just under 50% of the total number of generation z will be nazis Tongue

Again, internet movements, according to you, have a 75% success rate. And there's precedent for racist movements springing forth in societies. It ain't like we're in some post-racial society that'll never drift into another ethnostate.

I agree with TD, if neither party offers up good economic solutions and people keep suffering then people will keep voting on cultural and racial issues. And this will embolden the alt right even more.

Describing any of those as successful is such a ridiculous stretch. Obama withdrew from Iraq on the schedule proposed by the Iraqi government. Sanders did not win the Democratic Party nomination. It looks like the Republicans won't even get a real Obamacare repeal.

Also I thought you weren't serious about the 90% of white Gen Zers being Nazis? Make up your mind! But if you are, please explain how can statistically extrapolate 15k subscribers on a subreddit to 90% of an age bracket including people not born yet.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
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Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #18 on: March 14, 2017, 11:53:14 PM »

I didn't say all of Generation Z. I said 90% of the white ones. If the generation is 55% nonhispanic white that'll be just under 50% of the total number of generation z will be nazis Tongue

Again, internet movements, according to you, have a 75% success rate. And there's precedent for racist movements springing forth in societies. It ain't like we're in some post-racial society that'll never drift into another ethnostate.

I agree with TD, if neither party offers up good economic solutions and people keep suffering then people will keep voting on cultural and racial issues. And this will embolden the alt right even more.

Describing any of those as successful is such a ridiculous stretch. Obama withdrew from Iraq on the schedule proposed by the Iraqi government. Sanders did not win the Democratic Party nomination. It looks like the Republicans won't even get a real Obamacare repeal.

Also I thought you weren't serious about the 90% of white Gen Zers being Nazis? Make up your mind! But if you are, please explain how can statistically extrapolate 15k subscribers on a subreddit to 90% of an age bracket including people not born yet.

They were actually quite successful. The Tea Party got their 2010 wave year, forced Obama to cut the deficit hy 2/3s.

What Tea Party policies that made it through the then-Democratic Senate (as opposed to say, oooh, the economy making a huge improvement resulting in higher tax returns) resulted in this?

The anti Iraq people got the neocons in both the Democratic and Republican Party out of the White House. Obama being less hawkish than McCain and Romney, Trump being less hawkish than Hillary on Syria and Russia

There were never any neocons in the Democratic Party in the White House, and while the Iraq War certainly played a role in McCain's defeat, I don't think you can attribute it primarily to Code Pink and Cindy Sheehan. That's like saying people burning American flags on college campuses are what forced Nixon to pull out of Vietnam.

and Sanders and his supporters are clearly leading the Democratic Party right now. The democratic leadership will fight tooth and nail to stop them, but they won't succeed since they have zero credibility and no grassroots movement behind them to stop the Sanders insurgency.

Demonstrably false (as proven by Tom Perez) and just projection. Even what level of strength Sanders developed was clearly not due to Occupy Wall Street rallies.

90% was hyperbole. That's why I added the Tongue face. But a decent number of them will either be civic nationalists or white nationalists. And since the youth are already incredibly apathetic towards politics, these loud mouths will be the ones shaping the political dialogue of future youth movements.

And if you weren't 12 years old in 2008 you would've seen that this exact same thing also applied to Millennials in regards to libertarianism and Ron Paul's movement. Except not only were these clearly a vocal minority per voting returns, they didn't even stay as a movement for long, with about half of them turning into alt-right creeps and half becoming Sanders supporting social democrats eight years later. And with most of the once politically apathetic millennials upon getting older actually instead just voting based on their economic reality and social issue stances instead of whatever the dankest memes were promoting once they started voting when older. Imagine that! Maybe 20 years from now previously apathetic Gen Zers struggling with student loans, a probably even more unaffordable housing market, and possible huge economic changes brought on by automation will vote based on issues regarding that instead of whatever people on posting on 4chan then assuming it even still exists.

And seriously, go on 4chan for even 10 minutes, and then tell me that these people, assuming they are all teenagers (every demographics poll I've seen on it implies that it's mostly at least mid-20s neckbeards which doesn't shock me, simplistic image boards like it probably seem as dated to today's high schoolers as landlines were to my age cohort) are the leaders of their generation...and not likely bullied weirdos who are mostly cutting classes and barely passing if passing at all. I know high school has changed a lot since I was in it, but I'm still willing to wager than both the "popular" "cool kids" in it now, and the ones who are academically stellar and likely to go onto Ivy League colleges and other ones that produce the future leaders, are not the ones who producing anti-Semitic Pepe memes.

You still have yet to prove how your subreddit statistics actually DISPROVE the "vocal minority" claims, because really all that does is back it up. Once again, there are more people who voted for Hillary Clinton in my county alone, and your's, than who subscribe to r/The_Donald.

Also generations are magical groups arbitrarily defined by cutoff years that all vote in bloc for the entire age range. Do the youngest Generation Xers born in the late 70s vote like people born during the LBJ Presidency? This actually shows why most talk of generations is nonsensical, do I have more in common with people born in 1997 than in 1979?
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
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Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

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« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2017, 02:09:32 AM »

Pretty funny what Timmy says about predicted voting patterns of future generations now in light of this.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2017, 11:58:41 AM »

Holy.  .

That was the dumbest thing I have read in a long time.

I wish I can agree with you, but the signs I've seen are very disconcerting.

With white women, I agree with you, since Trump and social conservatism has practically 0 support from the white women I know. It's the white (and some Asian) men who tend to go alt-right.

Of course, what I said so far is anecdotal, but we've already seen plenty of surveys on this forum that show (white male) Gen-Zers being pro-Trump. I'd love it if you could show otherwise (even if only to make me less fearful of the future).
Donald Trump won  60%+ of white woman with no college degree and you are telling me Trumpism does not have any support from white women.
It is hilarious to put blame only on white men for trumpism.
There are many decent young white males from generation z and there are many white females that supports trumpism.
You should not make any blanket statement.
A white man from generation z should not be automatically suspected as a racist.

Ah but you see lots of Trumpists post on sites frequented by teenagers, so it's quite obvious that the vast majority are Trumpists, it's perfectly sound statistics. Also I think it's pretty clear that the "leaders" of the next generation, the ones who'll be most active in politics and define and today's valedictorians and ones who'll be going to the Ivy League schools are currently posting on 4chan and other sites calling themselves "sh!tlords" and raving about "Kek" and how people they dislike are "cucks". Makes perfect sense to me.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #21 on: October 01, 2017, 06:40:20 PM »

The hilarious thing is Timmy says I like to bully children with what he said in this thread...
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #22 on: October 02, 2017, 12:22:40 AM »

Okay as a member of Generation Z  I think that we are definitely more conservatives then Millennials we hate sjw's safe spaces etc but from what i've seen most of us are Fiscally conservative and Socially liberal I think that our generation will like people in the center

Truly the most relevant and important issues of our time obviously. Especially in regards to presidential elections.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,048
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #23 on: October 02, 2017, 11:52:12 AM »

Okay as a member of Generation Z  I think that we are definitely more conservatives then Millennials we hate sjw's safe spaces etc but from what i've seen most of us are Fiscally conservative and Socially liberal I think that our generation will like people in the center

Truly the most relevant and important issues of our time obviously. Especially in regards to presidential elections.

I was into the PC backlash thing around 2014/early 2015 but at this point it's just another form of PC. So people are annoying on Twitter whining about microagressions, get over it. There are way worse/more important things happening in the world right now. I've moved on.

Kind of hilarious how some here think once Gen Z are paying off student loans and trying to start families and all that that their top priority is still going to be "triggering people on Tumblr" or whatever (assuming that's even the top priority for a majority NOW and that that sort of thing will even still be a thing then.)
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