New data suggests Hillary won white male/female millennials.

[Virginiá]

I don't know; there are some big differences here. If these numbers were more accurate, then I'd agree the GOP really needs to reevaluate and find a way to make themselves more appealing to new voters, but then again they absolutely need to do this anyway, so it would only be a matter of priority. Either way, I'm not sure I buy the idea that Clinton actually won white Millennials by that much, or even at all.

Millennial turnout was 30% and Trump barely managed to win half with a pretty big part going to third parties

Turnout measured how, though? I recall reading on CivicYouth that 18-29 turnout was on par with 2012. Contrary to what many articles have stated, youth turnout actually wasn't that bad - that is, unless you think 2012 was bad (relatively speaking)

Politics doesn't matter in the long term. That's the problem with you Democrats, you're thinking about the fourth quarter so much, you don't realize that you're running back sucks and he just dropped the ball.

Noooo. Politics in the long term does matter! The electorate isn't totally static and does fluctuate as major events occur spontaneously or over time, but there are structural changes that tend to benefit one party over the other long-term and it is in the each party's interests to try and shape the future for themselves. One big problem the GOP has had is its obsession with trading long-term viability for short-term wins. It's the political equivalent of pawning all your stuff for some quick cash. Sure, you have money now, but eventually that will run out and you are left in dire straights. The GOP could have built a sunny future for itself had it worked harder to appeal to young voters and prove to them that the stereotypes are wrong, but it seems like every day, the actions of party members only serve to reinforce its poisoned image.

You can say what you will about GOP power right now; they are undoubtedly the nation's current majority party in terms of raw political power, but looking back at history, Democrats in 1992 looked quite dominant themselves, only to see their party implode and lose power at the federal and state level for decades. The fact is, long-term changes to electorate matter and winning a bunch of elections under favorable conditions can trick a party into thinking that everything is rosy when in reality it is rotting from the inside.

[Virginiá]

I dunno, maybe. Personally I'm not going to even begin drawing conclusions on this (save for a default opinion, which is an iffy extension of Millennials given basic demographics) until we get some actual voting data for them in 2018 and/or 2020. Even if they are somewhat more conservative now, it doesn't mean they will stay that way. The 18 - 25 age group is a time of partisan malleability and these people could end up changing their minds on various issues/politicians. Or, the polls end up being wrong. Given how diverse Z will be, it's hard for me to take seriously any idea that it will be a Republican-heavy generation given that the GOP has not only made no efforts to reach out but at times seem to be actively working to repel such voters.

Just going to have to wait and see.

[Virginiá]

Generation z is 55% nonhispanic white. If they can get 70% of these voters and 30% of the nonwhite voters (especially the alt right/nationalistic Hispanics and Asians) then that's 52% of the vote share. This isn't as crazy as it sounds if you just look at how internet discussion forums from 2011-2016 went from being dominated by liberals and occasionally libertarians to conservatives and alt right "racial realists" and nationalists. People are quick to dismiss these as Russian trolls and old conservatives, but if you respond to them you quickly realize they're young Americans teens who genuinely believe this stuff. They pop up even in nonpolitical videos and threads.

Don't you think this is overly anecdotal? For instance I've seen some remark that Atlas is being overrun with alt-right Trump supporters but in reality most of that is coming from people like eharding, EnglishPete and a few others. Really vocal, posts a lot but overall not big in number.

Also if you looked at Internet forums to tried and gauge how things are going to play out IRL, given the demographics around here at least, you may assume that Aliens have descended from the heavens and snatched up all the women, and American politics is poised to be dominated by gay white males for the foreseeable future.

[Virginiá]

Although I think Trumps performance in office and whether or not he'll be a two term president will have a greater impact on Gen Z than anything else. Party loyalty typically starts around age 18 and the Party in power and how popular the president is at the time shapes their affiliation. So far from the Silent-Boomer-Xer-Millennial generations each one has gotten more and more liberal and left wing. We'll see if Z breaks the pattern or not by 2024.

What I do want to agree on is that eventually the pendelum will swing back and Democrats will become less appealing to new generations of voters who have broken with their peers en masse, like you suggested. I'm just not sure we are there yet, although I do get what you are saying and it is worrying to me.

Even if heavy Intenet users are a skewed portion of the electorate, isn't it still concerning that alt-rightism is the dominant force right now? It's not like they exist in a (total) bubble; the Internet shapes real life, and having that tool dominated by these very skilled and determined individuals will certainly affect real-life politics, even if these individuals are a minority in real life. At the very least, they'll punch above their weight in how they shape our political discourse, which includes (re)normalizing racism and bigotry.

Plus the fact that the heavy Internet user demographic is so skewed in the first place (in no small part because of how toxic it has become) is not a good thing.

Oh yes, extremely concerning. Even if future gen z voters aren't much less Democratic, it still doesn't change the fact that there at least seems to be some changes brewing. The nationalists control the narrative right now, and we must fight to take it back.

One thing that does give me hope is that the support Trump got from young white Millennials was concentrated among non-college educated Millennials, and college educated Millennials broke heavily for Clinton after going for Romney previously. The end result was that Clinton actually did better than Obama with young whites despite such huge changes in support among that sliver of the population. What this says to me is that even if some young whites are trending towards the GOP and this divisive message, it is concentrated among non-college educated whites, and that group is constantly shrinking as a portion of the population.

Trump's message is only alienating Republicans among future college educated voters, who not only will represent more and more of the population in the future but are much more reliable voters as well. It is not a winning message, and while it may cost us support in some states it will help us in others.

[Virginiá]

-Dems did not win this group in terms of millenials, and your second assumption has been for ages refuted by the voting patterns of those now in their early 60s (who were the strongest McGovern demographic).

It's not refuted in its entirety:

1. Voting one way in one election doesn't solidfy partisan loyalty for life. It's repetition over time, particularly in young adulthood, that locks it in. White Millennials didn't just vote substantially less Republican in one election. This has been a constant theme since 2008.

2. Data I've seen shows very weak performance for Nixon among 18-29 year olds relative to this overall winning margin, but he still won that demographic, if only barely. Is there other data disputing this? I've think I've seen something of the sort but my requests for it on here were not met with a response. However, even strong McGovern performance in 1972 doesn't really make a difference here as I stated in #1.

3. Exit polls do not generally show the results of such small age ranges (60 - 65, for instance), and firms (Pew) that have analyzed the raw data have stated there are more pro-Democratic leanings for the boomers who grew up under Nixon.

[Virginiá]

You would think, given how generations often react against the one prior, that Gen Z would be far more supportive of Trump than they appear to be.

Isn't public opinion of the president at ages 18-20something also a huge determiner of political alignment? I remember reading that Baby Boomers who came of age during Watergate were significantly more Democratic-leaning than those who came before and after it.

Yes:



(Pew has more charts covering even longer time spans)


In all likelihood, Trump's presidency will probably continue a substantial pro-Democratic trend among young people, not only new ones but more importantly - older Millennials, those in their 20s, whose partisan ID is not quite locked yet. Susceptibility to change is probably best measured as peaking in the late teens - very early 20s and slowly going downhill over the next 20+ years. It's like this for all sorts of things, not just politics. Although as I stated in another thread, there is no ultimate guarantee they stay like this, and there are always a not-insignificant portion of people in every generation that are never really solid partisans.

[Virginiá]

This is pretty interesting. Are there charts that show how the votes went for the 2016 election for comparison? I would like to see how much more republican people trend as they get older.

Here is a good article on all of this, albeit outdated: http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/03/the-generation-gap-and-the-2012-election-3/

In 2016, the oldest voters (65+) trended Democratic quite a bit. They went from 56 - 44% Romney to 52 - 45% Clinton. This is probably due to the older Boomers, who grew up under Nixon, moving into the 65+ group (65 - 71). They have always been less Republican than the generation as a whole.

Here is a full chart from 2011:




As you can see, even those who grew up under FDR's administration still voted Democratic into their 70s/80s, although there might have been a little erosion over such a great length of time. That much is expected, as the parties did change a good bit over all that time, and the ones who were still alive in the 90s/2000s were those who grew up in the latter half of FDR/Truman, during WW2. Usually support erodes if a party holds the White House for a long time like that.

The biggest pro-Republican shifts among older voters came from the primary genx/boomer group: 45 - 64, which includes the older portion of generation X, and the younger Boomers, who are more Republican. The pro-R shift among 45-64 is probably due to those Boomers/genx'ers aging and thus voting more often, as well as the more Democratic older Boomers being measured in the 65+ age group.