What are the political views of Polish-Americans?

[diptheriadan]

Specifically, Polish Americans who either immigrated to or were born in the States after the revolution?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Weren't there a lot of them in Chicago?

[Torie]

I once read with respect to Czechs, that the three tranches that came were very different in their politics. The first wave were working class, and tended to be Dems (that may be far less true now, to the extent the cohort is not totally assimilated), the second wave after the Communists took over were more middle class and conservative, and the third wave after the Czech spring revolution failed in the late 1960's or whenever, tended to be middle class, but more "socialist" and liberal.

Since I read that, with Eastern Europe now not under the Soviet yoke, the most recent immigrants may tend to vary all over the lot, or perhaps are somewhat conservative. I don't know.

The same phenomenon may tend to apply to Polish immigrants.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I once read with respect to Czechs, that the three tranches that came were very different in their politics. The first wave were working class, and tended to be Dems (that may be far less true now, to the extent the cohort is not totally assimilated), the second wave after the Communists took over were more middle class and conservative, and the third wave after the Czech spring revolution failed in the late 1960's or whoever, tended to be middle class, but more "socialist" and liberal.

Since I read that, with Eastern Europe now not under the Soviet yoke, the most recent immigrants may tend to vary all over the lot, or perhaps are somewhat conservative. I don't know.

The same phenomenon may tend to apply to Polish immigrants.

Czechs are fully assimilated. My mother's hometown is literally called "New Prague" yet the Czech population there isn't able to be differentiated from the Germans or Nordics.

[Intell]

I once read with respect to Czechs, that the three tranches that came were very different in their politics. The first wave were working class, and tended to be Dems (that may be far less true now, to the extent the cohort is not totally assimilated), the second wave after the Communists took over were more middle class and conservative, and the third wave after the Czech spring revolution failed in the late 1960's or whoever, tended to be middle class, but more "socialist" and liberal.

Since I read that, with Eastern Europe now not under the Soviet yoke, the most recent immigrants may tend to vary all over the lot, or perhaps are somewhat conservative. I don't know.

The same phenomenon may tend to apply to Polish immigrants.

Czechs are fully assimilated. My mother's hometown is literally called "New Prague" yet the Czech population there isn't able to be differentiated from the Germans or Nordics.

Minnepolis? Not everywhere is there. There's a strong Eastern-European culture in Ohio and other mid-western states.

[SingingAnalyst]

I found this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish-American_vote#Presidential_voting_results

If correct, it indicates Americans of Polish ancestry, even under the best scenario for Hillary Clinton, gave her a smaller percentage of the 2-party vote (42%) than McGovern in 1972 (47%).

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I'd like to take this opportunity and apologize to BRTD, on behalf of the Polish people, for giving him Governor Tim Pawlenty. We are sorry.

[King of Kensington]

Traditionally blue collar Democrats.  Probably a good swing to Trump in this election.

[Karpatsky]

I found this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish-American_vote#Presidential_voting_results

If correct, it indicates Americans of Polish ancestry, even under the best scenario for Hillary Clinton, gave her a smaller percentage of the 2-party vote (42%) than McGovern in 1972 (47%).

Wow, that's a hell of a bellwether if accurate - two losses in 100 years. Maybe next election pollsters short on cash could try only calling people whose name ends with 'ski'.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I found this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish-American_vote#Presidential_voting_results

If correct, it indicates Americans of Polish ancestry, even under the best scenario for Hillary Clinton, gave her a smaller percentage of the 2-party vote (42%) than McGovern in 1972 (47%).

Those numbers look incorrect.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I found this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish-American_vote#Presidential_voting_results

If correct, it indicates Americans of Polish ancestry, even under the best scenario for Hillary Clinton, gave her a smaller percentage of the 2-party vote (42%) than McGovern in 1972 (47%).

Wow, that's a hell of a bellwether if accurate - two losses in 100 years. Maybe next election pollsters short on cash could try only calling people whose name ends with 'ski'.

Although, 1956 was a miss, they're just not counting it.

[SingingAnalyst]

I found this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish-American_vote#Presidential_voting_results

If correct, it indicates Americans of Polish ancestry, even under the best scenario for Hillary Clinton, gave her a smaller percentage of the 2-party vote (42%) than McGovern in 1972 (47%).

Those numbers look incorrect.

I am skeptical of some of them myself; for instance, I suspect Reagan won much greater than 51% of Polish-Americans in 1984. Still, the overall political/electoral story of Polish-Americans, until 2016, seems to be that they have voted much more Democratic than White non-Hispanic/Latino Americans overall.

[SingingAnalyst]

I found this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish-American_vote#Presidential_voting_results

If correct, it indicates Americans of Polish ancestry, even under the best scenario for Hillary Clinton, gave her a smaller percentage of the 2-party vote (42%) than McGovern in 1972 (47%).

Wow, that's a hell of a bellwether if accurate - two losses in 100 years. Maybe next election pollsters short on cash could try only calling people whose name ends with 'ski'.

Although, 1956 was a miss, they're just not counting it.

Catholic voters in general (with whom there is considerable overlap with Polish-Americans) have been bellweathers. When did the Catholic vote miss? 1928, 1952, 1956 (barely), 1968, 2000. I suspect Polish-Americans missed the same years, though 1980 I suspect was awfully close.

More perhaps than other White ethnic groups, I suspect the views of Polish-Americans have been colored by tragedy: the 1924 ransacking of a Polish wedding by the KKK; the 1975 killing by three youths of a Polish-American survivor of a Nazi concentration camp (as part of Detroit's Livernois-Fenkell riot; the youths were acquitted); the murder of Fr. Jerzy Popieluszko, a Solidarity sympathizer, less than 3 weeks before the 1984 Presidential election. I think the thing to remember is that Polish-Americans remained basically Democratic in their Presidential voting behavior for half a century into the modern Civil Rights era. Had only Polish-Americans voted in 1968, Humphrey would have won in a landslide. Polish-Americans voted strongly for Carter in 1976 (except in Detroit-Hamtramck-Warren-Sterling Heights, where the aforementioned riot was still a fresh memory) and split their votes evenly between Carter and Reagan in 1980 when non-Hispanic Whites overall voted Reagan by more than 20 points. Polish-Americans voted for Clinton and Obama twice each. Only in 2016 did their vote really "go south", so to speak.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I found this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish-American_vote#Presidential_voting_results

If correct, it indicates Americans of Polish ancestry, even under the best scenario for Hillary Clinton, gave her a smaller percentage of the 2-party vote (42%) than McGovern in 1972 (47%).

Wow, that's a hell of a bellwether if accurate - two losses in 100 years. Maybe next election pollsters short on cash could try only calling people whose name ends with 'ski'.

Although, 1956 was a miss, they're just not counting it.

Catholic voters in general (with whom there is considerable overlap with Polish-Americans) have been bellweathers. When did the Catholic vote miss? 1928, 1952, 1956 (barely), 1968, 2000. I suspect Polish-Americans missed the same years, though 1980 I suspect was awfully close.

More perhaps than other White ethnic groups, I suspect the views of Polish-Americans have been colored by tragedy: the 1924 ransacking of a Polish wedding by the KKK; the 1975 killing by three youths of a Polish-American survivor of a Nazi concentration camp (as part of Detroit's Livernois-Fenkell riot; the youths were acquitted); the murder of Fr. Jerzy Popieluszko, a Solidarity sympathizer, less than 3 weeks before the 1984 Presidential election. I think the thing to remember is that Polish-Americans remained basically Democratic in their Presidential voting behavior for half a century into the modern Civil Rights era. Had only Polish-Americans voted in 1968, Humphrey would have won in a landslide. Polish-Americans voted strongly for Carter in 1976 (except in Detroit-Hamtramck-Warren-Sterling Heights, where the aforementioned riot was still a fresh memory) and split their votes evenly between Carter and Reagan in 1980 when non-Hispanic Whites overall voted Reagan by more than 20 points. Polish-Americans voted for Clinton and Obama twice each. Only in 2016 did their vote really "go south", so to speak.

The fact is that I do not believe that Hillary Clinton did nearly as bad with Polish-Americans as is suggested by that chart.

[SingingAnalyst]

I found this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish-American_vote#Presidential_voting_results

If correct, it indicates Americans of Polish ancestry, even under the best scenario for Hillary Clinton, gave her a smaller percentage of the 2-party vote (42%) than McGovern in 1972 (47%).

Wow, that's a hell of a bellwether if accurate - two losses in 100 years. Maybe next election pollsters short on cash could try only calling people whose name ends with 'ski'.

Although, 1956 was a miss, they're just not counting it.

Catholic voters in general (with whom there is considerable overlap with Polish-Americans) have been bellweathers. When did the Catholic vote miss? 1928, 1952, 1956 (barely), 1968, 2000. I suspect Polish-Americans missed the same years, though 1980 I suspect was awfully close.

More perhaps than other White ethnic groups, I suspect the views of Polish-Americans have been colored by tragedy: the 1924 ransacking of a Polish wedding by the KKK; the 1975 killing by three youths of a Polish-American survivor of a Nazi concentration camp (as part of Detroit's Livernois-Fenkell riot; the youths were acquitted); the murder of Fr. Jerzy Popieluszko, a Solidarity sympathizer, less than 3 weeks before the 1984 Presidential election. I think the thing to remember is that Polish-Americans remained basically Democratic in their Presidential voting behavior for half a century into the modern Civil Rights era. Had only Polish-Americans voted in 1968, Humphrey would have won in a landslide. Polish-Americans voted strongly for Carter in 1976 (except in Detroit-Hamtramck-Warren-Sterling Heights, where the aforementioned riot was still a fresh memory) and split their votes evenly between Carter and Reagan in 1980 when non-Hispanic Whites overall voted Reagan by more than 20 points. Polish-Americans voted for Clinton and Obama twice each. Only in 2016 did their vote really "go south", so to speak.

The fact is that I do not believe that Hillary Clinton did nearly as bad with Polish-Americans as is suggested by that chart.

You are probably right. Catholics went 51-45 for Trump, so I suspect Polish-Americans went about 50-46 for Trump. Still, I suspect that if Polish-Americans had stayed home on Election Day 2016, Hillary Rodham Clinton would be in the White House today. Ditto for Gerald Ford in 1976.

[mileslunn]

Probably more your populist types so I suspect Obama did reasonably well amongst them, but many swung over to Trump. 

[King of Kensington]

Any speculation on how Trump did among Chicago Poles (which still has a lot of foreign born Poles) vs. places that are basically all Polish American?

[mileslunn]

Any speculation on how Trump did among Chicago Poles (which still has a lot of foreign born Poles) vs. places that are basically all Polish American?

Chicago went pretty heavily for Clinton so in Cook County I am pretty sure he won them.  Even in the Collar counties which traditionally went GOP swung towards Clinton so probably won the Polish vote here as well as perhaps in Massachusetts.  As for Polish immigrants, a lot came to escape communism so if they are like the ones in Canada, wouldn't be surprised if they vote GOP as a lot recent Eastern European immigrants tend to be quite conservative, but maybe Trump was a bit too much.  But where you mention Polish-American you are right they are largest mostly in areas that swung heavily from Obama to Trump so Obama winning them in both 2008 and 2012 while Trump in 2016 seems about right.  Off course gender, age, and education level probably plays a bigger role than Polish heritage.  A white female of polish descent with a university degree in her 20s is more likely to be a Clinton than Trump voter whereas a white male in his 50s with only a high school education of Polish descent is far more likely to be a Trump than Clinton voter.

[SingingAnalyst]

1976 without the Polish-American vote:

Ford/Dole 48.25% / 276 EV
Carter/Mondale 49.8% / 261 EV

2016 without the Polish-American vote:

Clinton/Kaine: 48.1% / 278 EV
Trump/Pence: 45.8% / 260 EV

"These are the Poles that count." - heard at a rally in Hamtramck , MI for George H. W. Bush in 1992

[King of Kensington]

It's hard to detect any "white ethnic boost" for Trump in the Chicago area.  Cook is so Democratic anyway that it's hard to isolate such a trend.  And the collar counties are pretty white collar/professional and not really that "ethnic" anyway (there's a reason I think why Trump did better in Nassau than DuPage).

[VPH]

It's hard to detect any "white ethnic boost" for Trump in the Chicago area.  Cook is so Democratic anyway that it's hard to isolate such a trend.  And the collar counties are pretty white collar/professional and not really that "ethnic" anyway (there's a reason I think why Trump did better in Nassau than DuPage).

Ethnic boost did exist; it was prominent in heavily Irish enclaves like Mt. Greenwood and Canaryville. Even in Philadelphia, Bridesburg showed a similar trend.

Many of the Chicago Polish areas are increasingly Hispanic, so it's harder to isolate those trends necessarily.

[King of Kensington]

Mount Greenwood is the cop neighborhood, no?  How much did Trump improve from Romney and McCain?

Meanwhile, Norwood Park Township - hard to find a more "white ethnic" place in Chicagoland - went 45.9% for Romney and 45.6% for Trump.  So basically no change (though Hillary did slightly worse with a stronger third party presence).

[Figueira]

Similar to other white people I think.