IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[RogueBeaver]

Per Howey Politics.

[Pandaguineapig]

R+1, I guess. Donnelly will start out with a lead in the polls (just like Bayh), but Messer should win in the end.

That being said, I really don't think he is the best candidate Republicans have.

Weaker than Brooks or Ballard but won't self-destruct like Murdock or Stutzman

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

He said he'd decide by May, not that he was running.

[Maxwell]

Messer's a middle tier candidate in the grand scheme of things - he wouldn't win it outright but he also isn't gonna completely butcher it ala Mourdock, MacIntosh, or even Stutzman. He's pretty conservative, and supported the Trump Travel Ban. If Messer does jump in as this article insinuates he will, I think he'd have the advantage but not a stable one.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Messer's a middle tier candidate in the grand scheme of things - he wouldn't win it outright but he also isn't gonna completely butcher it ala Mourdock, MacIntosh, or even Stutzman. He's pretty conservative, and supported the Trump Travel Ban. If Messer does jump in as this article insinuates he will, I think he'd have the advantage but not a stable one.

Sounds about right

[Rjjr77]

I wonder if someone like Curtis Hill would hop in.

[Blackacre]

If Messer does get in, this race becomes Tilt or Lean Republican. Donnelly is the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. He's fairly anonymous, (unlike McCaskill) comes from a clearly Republican state that also has a record of ousting incumbents, (unlike Brown) comes from an average-sized state that is too big for retail politics alone to succeed, (unlike Heitkamp) only won once against a terrible opponent, (unlike Tester) and doesn't appear to be a very talented or a very conservative politician, plus his last elected office was US Rep. (unlike Manchin, who was Governor)

However, Donnelly isn't dead on arrival. He outperformed Obama in 2012 by seven points, he's not gaffe-prone, and his state's voters might take out their anti-incumbent anger on Trump rather than on him if Trump is unpopular enough on election day.

With a mid-tier candidate like Messer being Donnelly's opponent, however, I can say this for sure: this race will be one to watch on election night. Indiana closes its polls very early. An early call in IN-Sen will indicate a big night for whichever party wins that race. If the race isn't called for a while, the entire election night will be a nail-biter. (however, since the race starts out as Tilt/Lean Messer, a long wait could indicate good things for Dems elsewhere)

[BuckeyeNut]

Someone other than Messer could still get in. Like Stutzman. Or maybe Ballard.

[Heisenberg]

Really, what the hell is so bad about Messer? He's way better than Lil' Marlin, and of the Indiana Republican Congressmen, he's the closest (personally) to Pence, who's VP. He should beat Donnelly, especially after all that happened last year.

[BuckeyeNut]

Really, what the hell is so bad about Messer? He's way better than Lil' Marlin, and of the Indiana Republican Congressmen, he's the closest (personally) to Pence, who's VP. He should beat Donnelly, especially after all that happened last year.

It's almost like they represented the same district... I think people are underestimating how unpopular Pence was in Indiana. Yes, yes, Trump and Pence swept Indiana, but Gregg was in line to take Pence down. Clinton and Bayh, were a major drag.

[MT Treasurer]

Really, what the hell is so bad about Messer? He's way better than Lil' Marlin, and of the Indiana Republican Congressmen, he's the closest (personally) to Pence, who's VP. He should beat Donnelly, especially after all that happened last year.

He strikes me as the typical condescending Republican who you can't help but dislike (a Rick Berg, if you will). I'm worried that he could be labeled "out of touch", especially against "good ol' Hoosier Joe ".

But yeah, I agree that he will most likely beat Donnelly. Bayh's landslide loss (this is a man who won basically all of his previous elections with at least 60% of the vote) was completely unexpected and is not a good sign for Donnelly, to say the least.

[Vosem]

He said he'd decide by May, not that he was running.

Messer's actions strongly suggest that he's running. Susan Brooks has already bowed out; Rokita may still challenge him but Messer's already out to a pretty solid head start.

Really, what the hell is so bad about Messer? He's way better than Lil' Marlin, and of the Indiana Republican Congressmen, he's the closest (personally) to Pence, who's VP. He should beat Donnelly, especially after all that happened last year.

Years have their own personalities. I agree that Donnelly may be likely to be defeated at the moment, but what happened in 2016 can easily be completely reversed in 2018. Indiana is actually a very good example of this, since it's recently swung heavily together with the prevailing winds:

√ Dan Coats (Republican) 56.4%
Brad Ellsworth (Democratic) 38.1%
Rebecca Sink-Burris (Libertarian) 5.4%

√ Joe Donnelly (Democratic) 50.0%
Richard Mourdock (Republican) 44.2%
Andrew Horning (Libertarian) 5.7%

Two-year difference there. Much bigger swing than would be necessary from the 2016 results to give Donnelly a victory.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

He said he'd decide by May, not that he was running.

Messer's actions strongly suggest that he's running. Susan Brooks has already bowed out; Rokita may still challenge him but Messer's already out to a pretty solid head start.

Really, what the hell is so bad about Messer? He's way better than Lil' Marlin, and of the Indiana Republican Congressmen, he's the closest (personally) to Pence, who's VP. He should beat Donnelly, especially after all that happened last year.

Years have their own personalities. I agree that Donnelly may be likely to be defeated at the moment, but what happened in 2016 can easily be completely reversed in 2018. Indiana is actually a very good example of this, since it's recently swung heavily together with the prevailing winds:

√ Dan Coats (Republican) 56.4%
Brad Ellsworth (Democratic) 38.1%
Rebecca Sink-Burris (Libertarian) 5.4%

√ Joe Donnelly (Democratic) 50.0%
Richard Mourdock (Republican) 44.2%
Andrew Horning (Libertarian) 5.7%

Two-year difference there. Much bigger swing than would be necessary from the 2016 results to give Donnelly a victory.

But Mourdock was a trash-level candidate who made a stupid comment about rape. No way Donnelly would have beaten Richard Lugar.

[Heisenberg]

Really, what the hell is so bad about Messer? He's way better than Lil' Marlin, and of the Indiana Republican Congressmen, he's the closest (personally) to Pence, who's VP. He should beat Donnelly, especially after all that happened last year.

He strikes me as the typical condescending Republican who you can't help but dislike (a Rick Berg, if you will). I'm worried that he could be labeled "out of touch", especially against "good ol' Hoosier Joe ".

But yeah, I agree that he will most likely beat Donnelly. Bayh's landslide loss (this is a man who won basically all of his previous elections with at least 60% of the vote) was completely unexpected and is not a good sign for Donnelly, to say the least.

Is this a joke? Donnelly was born and raised in Long Island. He didn't move to Indiana until his college years. Messer is a native Hoosier and lifelong Indiana resident. Also he's Pence's BFF in the House so Pence would be way more fired up to help him as opposed to say, Lil' Marlin or Tennessee Trey.

[Blackacre]

Is this a joke? Donnelly was born and raised in Long Island. He didn't move to Indiana until his college years. Messer is a native Hoosier and lifelong Indiana resident. Also he's Pence's BFF in the House so Pence would be way more fired up to help him as opposed to say, Lil' Marlin or Tennessee Trey.

What matters is how voters in Indiana view him, not we.

Perception is reality, after all

[Figueira]

If Messer does get in, this race becomes Tilt or Lean Republican. Donnelly is the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. He's fairly anonymous, (unlike McCaskill) comes from a clearly Republican state that also has a record of ousting incumbents, (unlike Brown) comes from an average-sized state that is too big for retail politics alone to succeed, (unlike Heitkamp) only won once against a terrible opponent, (unlike Tester) and doesn't appear to be a very talented or a very conservative politician, plus his last elected office was US Rep. (unlike Manchin, who was Governor)

However, Donnelly isn't dead on arrival. He outperformed Obama in 2012 by seven points, he's not gaffe-prone, and his state's voters might take out their anti-incumbent anger on Trump rather than on him if Trump is unpopular enough on election day.

With a mid-tier candidate like Messer being Donnelly's opponent, however, I can say this for sure: this race will be one to watch on election night. Indiana closes its polls very early. An early call in IN-Sen will indicate a big night for whichever party wins that race. If the race isn't called for a while, the entire election night will be a nail-biter. (however, since the race starts out as Tilt/Lean Messer, a long wait could indicate good things for Dems elsewhere)

This seems pretty accurate.

[houseonaboat]

Lugar lost by 20 points though, it's not like Mourdock won in a fluke. Indiana's electorate of GOP primary voters is very conservative, so I think whoever wins the primary (I assume it will be Messer) will have to run as unabashedly pro-Trump. So if Trump is unpopular, Donnelly could win this the same way he won in 2012.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Toss-Up

Despite voting for Trump pretty handily, Indiana is a fairly elastic state. If the anti-Trump sentiment is strong enough, it's certainly within margin for Democrats to win. Also, Indiana Republicans tend to be pretty gaffe-prone.

[Bismarck]

Seems like it's shaping up to be a Messer vs Rokita primary. I think Messer would get more national support and he is way more likeable, although Rokita might be better known because he has won statewide races in the past. Ideologically they are pretty similar, both solidly conservative but neither is a radical, Rokita might be slightly more likely to align with the tea party than Messer who quickly rose in the house ranks. I like Messer and think Rokita is horrible.

[RogueBeaver]

Messer creates a statewide finance committee and Banks is out.

[Figueira]

Why did Lugar lose so badly, and why did Stutzman lose so badly?

[Maxwell]

Why did Lugar lose so badly, and why did Stutzman lose so badly?

Lugar was perceived as out of touch and Lugar didn't really do much to change that perception.

Stutzman ran against someone just about as conservative as he was in Todd Young, except way more electable. Also, Indiana Republicans learned the hard way with Mourdock not to just elect "muh conservative" candidate.

[Bismarck]

Why did Lugar lose so badly, and why did Stutzman lose so badly?

Lugar was perceived as out of touch and Lugar didn't really do much to change that perception.

Stutzman ran against someone just about as conservative as he was in Todd Young, except way more electable. Also, Indiana Republicans learned the hard way with Mourdock not to just elect "muh conservative" candidate.

Agreed about Lugar. Young had way more money and establishment support, when Holcomb dropped out basically all of his supporters and donors went to Young. Stutzman also hurt himself by failing in an attempt to take Young off the ballot which angered many republicans. Agreed that Stutzman was also hurt by the recent defeat of Mourdock, Indiana GOP didn't want to nominate another far right loser. Young is conservative but more pragmatic.

[InheritTheWind]

Why did Lugar lose so badly, and why did Stutzman lose so badly?

Idk about Stutzman, but Lugar and Bayh both lost their respective races so badly because they were (rightly, might I add) portrayed as being out-of-touch with Indiana, both of them barely living in the state anymore. In that sense, I think Donnelly is safe from a blowout- both Lugar and Bayh had a stench of "Washington insider" firmly on them, something that Donnelly is (probably) safe from. IMO, this is a toss-up.

[MT Treasurer]

Anonymous Senator in a state that favors the other party who only won because his opponent in his first race imploded and who we're told shouldn't be underestimated because he's a moderate and he's likely to face a mediocre opponent. Sounds familiar...

Bayh, one of the most popular IN politicians ever, was literally considered unbeatable and up by like 30 points when he entered the race. The fact that he lost by such a blowout on election day isn't exactly encouraging news for Donnelly, to say the least.