IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[windjammer]

As someone who doesn't know much about Indiana politics, is this good news or bad news for Donnelly?

Messer seems to be an establishment type, no idea about his skills.
Probably better than Rokita.

[Bismarck]

As someone who doesn't know much about Indiana politics, is this good news or bad news for Donnelly?

Bad news for Donnelly provided he can find a way to get past the residency issue which is huge in Indiana. Messer is the strongest of the three candidates who have been realistically looking at running (along with Rokita and Curtis Hill). He will have strength in the primary as well because he has the backing of the Pence people and at least some of Todd Young's circle, which will help him get donors on board. Curtis Hill is too unknown despite his landslide record breaking victory, and Rokita is slimy and prone to making minor gaffes.

[Kamala]

I think Messer might be the only guy who is blander than Donnelly. Plus, Messer is a total establishment goon in an environment that doesn't favor such candidates.

[RogueBeaver]

Messer's in, kickoff at his family BBQ next month.

[krazen1211]

I believe this is a Republican pickup.

[Figueira]

The Republicans are favored here, but not by a huge amount.

[Mike Thick]

Hot take: Messer is more likely to lose the general than Rokita.

[Kamala]

Hot take: Messer is more likely to lose the general than Rokita.

Agreed.

[Bismarck]

Hot take: Messer is more likely to lose the general than Rokita.

Agreed.

Eh I would say they are pretty equal. Neither veers much from the conservative orthodoxy although Romina is more aligned with the tea party and Messer is more establishment. Both have been described as libertarian republicans, although to this day I can't figure out why.  Messer is rather bland and Rokita is less bland but is pretty unlikeable. Rokita has been elected to statewide office but both have pretty low name recognition. I'm rooting for Messer, I think he and Young would make a good senate team. Messer seems a tad bit more pragmatic than Rokita, although both are to the right of Young.

[Coraxion]

R+1.

Hack. Per usual.

[SATW]

I'll be backing Messer, but I'd prefer if he didn't run. He doesn't seem ready.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

#reelectdonnelly

[BuckeyeNut]

Hot take: Messer is more likely to lose the general than Rokita.

Agreed.

Nope.

And frankly, R+1 seems about right. Donnelly might be able to pull it out, but he was basically a warm body in 2012 before Lugar lost his primary. Yeah, Donnelly's been putting in work, but this is going to be uphill and if Messer makes it to the general, which is not a given, he should clean up nice.

[I’m not Stu]

Messer is in.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Hot take: Messer is more likely to lose the general than Rokita.

Agreed.

Eh I would say they are pretty equal. Neither veers much from the conservative orthodoxy although Romina is more aligned with the tea party and Messer is more establishment. Both have been described as libertarian republicans, although to this day I can't figure out why.  Messer is rather bland and Rokita is less bland but is pretty unlikeable. Rokita has been elected to statewide office but both have pretty low name recognition. I'm rooting for Messer, I think he and Young would make a good senate team. Messer seems a tad bit more pragmatic than Rokita, although both are to the right of Young.

Messer seems like he'll get pummeled for living out of state and -separately- working in lobbying in between his time in the Indiana House and the 6th District.

[Hoosier_Nick]

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/02/senate-slugfest-9-fights-so-far-indianas-bare-knuckle-us-senate-race/525108001/

Good article from the Star

[MarkD]

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/02/senate-slugfest-9-fights-so-far-indianas-bare-knuckle-us-senate-race/525108001/

Good article from the Star

Yes, good article.

The story of Rokita and Messer attacking each other, even though they're not the only candidates running for the GOP nomination, reminds me of how Russ Feingold came from way behind to win the Democratic nomination for the Senate in 1992. It's a story I've always thought was fascinating, amusing, and insightful. If Poli Sci departments have not been teaching students about that story for the last 25 years, they ought to start teaching it.
Early in 1992, Russ Feingold was a little-know state senator in Wisconsin, who, according to the polling, was in a distant third place behind two major, wealthy candidates: Rep. Jim Moody and businessman Joe Checota. Throughout the primary season, Moody and Checota each assumed that the other was their main opponent in the primary, and they attacked each other viciously, repeatedly, in their TV ads. Feingold ran a positive campaign, emphasizing his good qualities, and the only negative thing he ever said about Moody and Checota was to point out how they were slinging so much mud at each other. Feingold's strategy worked like a charm, while Moody and Checota succeeded only at making each other look terrible. Feingold ended up with a huge 70% win, and Checota and Moody were virtually tied for a distant second place at about 14% each.

Likewise, for Rokita and Messer to attack each other as often as they appear to be willing to do, is a strategy that can backfire, and it could easily lead to a win by someone like Mike Braun.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/02/senate-slugfest-9-fights-so-far-indianas-bare-knuckle-us-senate-race/525108001/

Good article from the Star

Yes, good article.

The story of Rokita and Messer attacking each other, even though they're not the only candidates running for the GOP nomination, reminds me of how Russ Feingold came from way behind to win the Democratic nomination for the Senate in 1992. It's a story I've always thought was fascinating, amusing, and insightful. If Poli Sci departments have not been teaching students about that story for the last 25 years, they ought to start teaching it.
Early in 1992, Russ Feingold was a little-know state senator in Wisconsin, who, according to the polling, was in a distant third place behind two major, wealthy candidates: Rep. Jim Moody and businessman Joe Checota. Throughout the primary season, Moody and Checota each assumed that the other was their main opponent in the primary, and they attacked each other viciously, repeatedly, in their TV ads. Feingold ran a positive campaign, emphasizing his good qualities, and the only negative thing he ever said about Moody and Checota was to point out how they were slinging so much mud at each other. Feingold's strategy worked like a charm, while Moody and Checota succeeded only at making each other look terrible. Feingold ended up with a huge 70% win, and Checota and Moody were virtually tied for a distant second place at about 14% each.

Likewise, for Rokita and Messer to attack each other as often as they appear to be willing to do, is a strategy that can backfire, and it could easily lead to a win by someone like Mike Braun.

The cynic in me doesn't believe that strategy could work in today's environment. Regardless, it's an interesting story - thanks!

[libertpaulian]

So, Messer's in...

...does this mean we'll be hearing from John Morgan in FL soon?

[Hoosier_Nick]

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/08/rep-todd-rokita-embraces-trump-he-launches-indiana-senate-bid/550882001/

Rokita is in! Great news for Donnelly. The more messy the GOP primary is, the better.

[_]

and so it begins, IN-2012 redux.

WHO WILL BE THE NEW MOURDOCK

[BuckeyeNut]

and so it begins, IN-2012 redux.

WHO WILL BE THE NEW MOURDOCK

Messer should do fine if he makes it through, but Rokita...

I can't over state how much I dislike Messer. I know for a fact Keith Ellison slept in his office when he first got to Congress because he couldn't afford to live in the District. Messer, meanwhile, went out and bought a bunch of $3,000 suits, while the median district of IN-06 is $50,588.

[MarkD]

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/08/rep-todd-rokita-embraces-trump-he-launches-indiana-senate-bid/550882001/

Rokita is in! Great news for Donnelly. The more messy the GOP primary is, the better.

This is similar to what I was suggesting before, except that I was saying that maybe neither Rokita or Messer will win the primary because of how much they attack each other, making each other look so bad that Indiana Republicans will look to someone else who runs a more respectable campaign.

The story of Rokita and Messer attacking each other, even though they're not the only candidates running for the GOP nomination, reminds me of how Russ Feingold came from way behind to win the Democratic nomination for the Senate in 1992. It's a story I've always thought was fascinating, amusing, and insightful. If Poli Sci departments have not been teaching students about that story for the last 25 years, they ought to start teaching it.
Early in 1992, Russ Feingold was a little-know state senator in Wisconsin, who, according to the polling, was in a distant third place behind two major, wealthy candidates: Rep. Jim Moody and businessman Joe Checota. Throughout the primary season, Moody and Checota each assumed that the other was their main opponent in the primary, and they attacked each other viciously, repeatedly, in their TV ads. Feingold ran a positive campaign, emphasizing his good qualities, and the only negative thing he ever said about Moody and Checota was to point out how they were slinging so much mud at each other. Feingold's strategy worked like a charm, while Moody and Checota succeeded only at making each other look terrible. Feingold ended up with a huge 70% win, and Checota and Moody were virtually tied for a distant second place at about 14% each.

Likewise, for Rokita and Messer to attack each other as often as they appear to be willing to do, is a strategy that can backfire, and it could easily lead to a win by someone like Mike Braun.

[Coraxion]

As a Democrat, I'm feeling pretty confident about this seat - and I definitely did not feel the same way in, say, December.

[Lachi]

If Rokita wins the primary, Donnelly will be fine.