Sabato: How Midterms Do (and Do Not) Differ From Presidential Elections

[Virginiá]

Very good look at midterm vs presidential years, and what to consider for 2018.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/how-midterms-do-and-do-not-differ-from-presidential-elections/


Differences

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(% non-white share of electorate over time)


Similarities

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[jamestroll]

And yet this site thinks 2018 will exactly mirror 2014 and 2010 for the GOP.

[Hindsight was 2020]

On a personal level I think the dems will take 30-35 seats winning the house

[OSR stands with Israel]

And yet this site thinks 2018 will exactly mirror 2014 and 2010 for the GOP.

have you looked at the Senate map.

[Hindsight was 2020]

And yet this site thinks 2018 will exactly mirror 2014 and 2010 for the GOP.

have you looked at the Senate map.

Yeah like 2-3 dems are in trouble vs 1-2 reps

[JerryArkansas]

And yet this site thinks 2018 will exactly mirror 2014 and 2010 for the GOP.

have you looked at the Senate map.

Have you looked at the Governor's races?

[Hindsight was 2020]

And yet this site thinks 2018 will exactly mirror 2014 and 2010 for the GOP.

have you looked at the Senate map.

Yeah like 2-3 dems are in trouble vs 1-2 reps

lol

Oh please Brown, Nelson, Baldwin, Manchin, Casey, and Stabenow aren't in trouble

[MT Treasurer]

And yet this site thinks 2018 will exactly mirror 2014 and 2010 for the GOP.

have you looked at the Senate map.

Yeah like 2-3 dems are in trouble vs 1-2 reps

lol

Oh please Brown, Nelson, Baldwin, Manchin, Casey, and Stabenow aren't in trouble

McCaskill and Donnelly are both in big, big trouble and almost certainly toast if the GOP nominates solid candidates in those states. Heitkamp, Tester, Manchin and Brown are all vulnerable as well. If it's a good or neutral year and Rs run strong campaigns, Nelson, Baldwin and maybe one of Stabenow, King or Casey can be beaten too. But even if that's not the case, the six seats I mentioned before are going to be tough for Democrats to hold.

[Heisenberg]

And yet this site thinks 2018 will exactly mirror 2014 and 2010 for the GOP.

have you looked at the Senate map.

Yeah like 2-3 dems are in trouble vs 1-2 reps

lol

Oh please Brown, Nelson, Baldwin, Manchin, Casey, and Stabenow aren't in trouble

McCaskill and Donnelly are both in big, big trouble and almost certainly toast if the GOP nominates solid candidates in those states. Heitkamp, Tester, Manchin and Brown are all vulnerable as well. If it's a good or neutral year and Rs run strong campaigns, Nelson, Baldwin and maybe one of Stabenow, King or Casey can be beaten too. But even if that's not the case, the six seats I mentioned before are going to be tough for Democrats to hold.

Totally agree. Hindsight's optimism is so annoying.

[Figueira]

And yet this site thinks 2018 will exactly mirror 2014 and 2010 for the GOP.

have you looked at the Senate map.

Are you aware that the Senate isn't the only thing that's up for election in 2018?

[Hindsight was 2020]

And yet this site thinks 2018 will exactly mirror 2014 and 2010 for the GOP.

have you looked at the Senate map.

Yeah like 2-3 dems are in trouble vs 1-2 reps

lol

Oh please Brown, Nelson, Baldwin, Manchin, Casey, and Stabenow aren't in trouble

McCaskill and Donnelly are both in big, big trouble and almost certainly toast if the GOP nominates solid candidates in those states. Heitkamp, Tester, Manchin and Brown are all vulnerable as well. If it's a good or neutral year and Rs run strong campaigns, Nelson, Baldwin and maybe one of Stabenow, King or Casey can be beaten too. But even if that's not the case, the six seats I mentioned before are going to be tough for Democrats to hold.

Totally agree. Hindsight's optimism is so annoying.

McCaskill, Donnelly, and Heitkamp were the dems I listed as in trouble so point? Also no Brown, Manchin, Stabenow, Casey, and King are not in trouble unless the reps run a real strong canidate their is no reason why they should they are popular an good fits in their states. The 2-3 dems and 1-2 reps are based off of bad fits for their states. Am I'm being annoyingly optimistic? How partisan do you to think King is in trouble?

[ApatheticAustrian]

in the best of best cases this would be reserve 2010 for democrats....BIG long-term wins in lower houses/gov-ships and ...cause i am realistic....dwarf the GOP majority in the House enough to make the freedom caucus into a real problem.

otherwise...like 2010...the senate map is a killer for the opposition party, even if it the Dems are playing strong.

imho everything below 5 fresh GOP seats could be seen as a good sign.

[OSR stands with Israel]

this my 2018 senate prediction


http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/l4wbo8


If Hillary won this is how bad it would have been for the dems:


http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/8rrJB8

[Shadows]

^Ignore. Also ending this "discussion" at this point. Feel free to believe that OH, MT, etc. are all Safe D, but don't call other others delusional for thinking they aren't. It didn't work for you guys in 2014 (when everyone who thought that Republicans would win the Senate was delusional) or in 2016 (when everyone who thought Democrats weren't going to win easily was delusional) either.

I think Democrats will pick up House seats, though. Maybe 7-12 or so. Could be more if the healthcare stuff backfires on Republicans. Gubernatorial races are impossible to predict and not as partisan as federal races. I think Democrats are favored in NM, PA, NH and IL and Republicans are favored in OH, WI, IA, MD (slightly) and MA.

@Jimmie: Yes, the MO Republican Party is very incompetent and the worst statewide Republican party in the country, so I wouldn't be surprised if they managed to lose to McCaskill in 2018. But I don't think it is guaranteed at this point and I wouldn't bet on it. There won't be another Akin in every state.

The House race is difficult to predict and will depend on individual campaigns and Trump's performance. I think it is certainly possible to win the House but 2020 looks a better shot if Dems can get Gov. races & do gerrymandering - I think that itself will decide 20-25 seats !

[Lachi]

And yet this site thinks 2018 will exactly mirror 2014 and 2010 for the GOP.

have you looked at the Senate map.

Have you looked at the House, Governor, and State legislature maps?)

[smoltchanov]

^ All are PARTIALLY correct, IMHO. Senate map is really brutal for Democrats, but House map somewhat favors them, and Governor's map is really good for them (though not as good as Senate map for Republicans). State legislative maps will, probably, be mostly determined by local issues..

[Virginiá]

^ All are PARTIALLY correct, IMHO. Senate map is really brutal for Democrats, but House map somewhat favors them, and Governor's map is really good for them (though not as good as Senate map for Republicans). State legislative maps will, probably, be mostly determined by local issues..

http://www.vox.com/2016/9/5/12712932/american-state-government-federalism

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Which makes sense if you ask me. People tend to not know that much about candidates further downballot. Things get more abstract at that point, with opinions of whatever the legislature doing coming down to to whatever the majority party did, and rarely individual lawmakers. However the one thing everyone hears about on a constant basis is the president. This is even more true with Trump. He shapes the opinions of the party, and that affects all the races on the ballot.

[krazen1211]

McCaskill and Donnelly are both in big, big trouble and almost certainly toast if the GOP nominates solid candidates in those states. Heitkamp, Tester, Manchin and Brown are all vulnerable as well. If it's a good or neutral year and Rs run strong campaigns, Nelson, Baldwin and maybe one of Stabenow, King or Casey can be beaten too. But even if that's not the case, the six seats I mentioned before are going to be tough for Democrats to hold.

King should be on retirement watch.

[Mr. Morden]

The racial and age splits have been there for some time, but the partisan split on both education and income seems to be changing in the age of Trump, with Republicans being less rich and with lower education levels than they were pre-Trump.  I guess that alone might be useful to Dems in midterm elections, since higher income and better educated people are more reliable voters.

I think it is certainly possible to win the House but 2020 looks a better shot if Dems can get Gov. races & do gerrymandering - I think that itself will decide 20-25 seats !

But redistricting wouldn't happen until 2021/22, after the 2020 census.  So I don't see how it's going to move seats in the 2020 elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am expecting a Democratic wave to build and Dems gain the House and Govs mansions.  The GOP is favored in the Senate, and 2020 is our shot.  But, who knows with Trump, anything can happen.

In 2020, Susan Collins should run for Gov or retire, because along with Joni Ernst, Tillis, and Gardner, in purple states, Dems will have a good nominee and hopefully its Julian Castro or Tulsi Gabbard.

[Blackacre]

I am expecting a Democratic wave to build and Dems gain the House and Govs mansions.  The GOP is favored in the Senate, and 2020 is our shot.  But, who knows with Trump, anything can happen.

In 2020, Susan Collins should run for Gov or retire, because along with Joni Ernst, Tillis, and Gardner, in purple states, Dems will have a good nominee and hopefully its Julian Castro or Tulsi Gabbard.

Nah. Collins is an institution in Maine. Maine, like West Virginia, is more politically complicated than it appears.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would rate MT, CO, NC, Iowa and GA as possible pickups for the Dems in 2020.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

I would rate MT, CO, NC, Iowa and GA as possible pickups for the Dems in 2020.

I'd add AK and a long-shot in WV.

[Blackacre]

Nah. Collins is an institution in Maine. Maine, like West Virginia Montana, is more politically complicated than it appears.

ftfy

Yeah, Collins won't go away, unfortunately. If she were to retire, I'd rate it a Tossup and not Lean D, though.

Heh, you might be right but I don't actually think Montana is that much more complicated than it appears. I think Montana's political shades of grey are relatively well-understood, if only because of how close Obama made it on 2008. Montana is a small, rural, somewhat populist, somewhat conservative state, and that lends itself to retail politicians breaking partisan headwinds. Like the Dakotas but with a better D bench and no oil.

I don't think the political complexities of West Virginia are as well understood, by contrast.

As for Maine's class 2 senate seat should Collins retire, I understand your calling it a tossup but I'd call it tilt D. IRV helps Ds and D-caucusing Independents and the GOP bench isnt that strong after LePaige. But it sure as hell wouldn't be Likely or Safe D or even Lean.

[MarkD]

I am expecting a Democratic wave to build and Dems gain the House and Govs mansions.  The GOP is favored in the Senate, and 2020 is our shot.  But, who knows with Trump, anything can happen.

In 2020, Susan Collins should run for Gov or retire, because along with Joni Ernst, Tillis, and Gardner, in purple states, Dems will have a good nominee and hopefully its Julian Castro or Tulsi Gabbard.

The next two gubernatorial elections in Maine will be 2018 and 2022.
Did you mean to say that you hope Castro or Gabbard will run for the Senate seats currently held by Collins, Ernst, Tillis, and Gardner?