21st Century Realignment: The Age of Trumpism

[Heisenberg]

John King: Thanks for staying with us. Let's look at the magic wall, shall we.

Michigan Governor (86% in)
Brian Calley: 51.5%                                                                            
Gretchen Whitmer: 48.5%

Michigan Senator (86% in)
Randy Richardville: 50.5%
Debbie Stabenow: 49.5%

Blitzer: Richardville's tiny lead remains steady with the last Wayne County dump all counted. Interesting. Brian Calley also might actually be the first Michigan governor in a long time to succeed a member of the same party.    

Pennsylvania Governor (80% in)
Mike Kelly: 50%
Tow Wolf: 50%    
                                                                        
Virginia Senator (96% in)
Barbara Comstock: 49%
Tim Kaine: 48%

Jake Tapper: Wow, the polls miss a close Virginia Senate race again?

New Mexico Governor (52% in)
Michele Lujan Grisham: 53% ✓
John Sanchez: 47%
                                                                            
New Mexico Senator (52% in)
Martin Heinrich: 53% ✓
Steve Pearce: 45%                                                                            

Arizona Senator (60% in)
Jeff Flake: 54% ✓
Kyrsten Sinema: 44%

Wisconsin Senator (64% in)
Eric Hovde: 53% ✓
Tammy Baldwin: 46%

Minnesota Governor (62% in)
Rich Stanek: 49%
Rebecca Otto: 48%                                                                            
Tim Gieske: 3%

Minnesota Senator (62% in)
Amy Klobuchar: 55% ✓
Jason Lewis: 45%

And onto the polls that have just closed:

Montana Senator (27% in)
Jon Tester: 50%
Ed Buttrey: 48%

Montana Representative (27% in)
Rob Quist: 51%
Fred Thomas: 47%

Nevada Senator (33% in)
Ross Miller: 50%
Dean Heller: 48%

Nevada Governor (33% in)
Adam Laxalt: 49%
Ruben Kihuen: 49%

[Heisenberg]

Wolf Blitzer: Good evening everyone, it is 10:30 PM Eastern time. Thank you for staying with us as we continue to follow the results come in on this busy midterm election night. While we wait, Senator Steve Daines of Montana will join us for a brief interview to discuss elections in his state. Good evening Senator, thanks for coming on!

Steve Daines: Thank you for having me, Wolf.

Wolf Blitzer: So right now, there’s a lot of action going on in the Congressional races in your state. The race for the At-Large House seat, won by Greg Gianforte last year even after assaulting the reporter, is open after he stepped down in disgrace. Rob Quist is keeping it close, and the Senate race is also tight. What are your thoughts on all that?

Steve Daines: Well, some were expecting this to be a bad year for Republicans. But now, with tax reform and healthcare passed, a strong economy, unemployment down, as well as terror on the decline and our presence in the Middle East shrinking, the outlook for us looks more positive. Republican morale is up, and the Democratic base is not as energized as it was in 2017 following Trump’s victories. I’d say his first defeat with healthcare allowed him and Congress to regroup, and the closeness of several special elections served as a reminder to for Republicans to turn out.

Wolf Blitzer: How do you feel about your party’s candidates? Did you want Gianforte to run for another term?

Steve Daines: Greg and I are good friends and have done business together for a while. I encouraged him to run last year, since he has the passion to serve his state, as well as name recognition. I would have been more than open to supporting him, he pleaded not guilty, and I think he has learned his lesson, but he decided to return to private life, not have his scandal drag down the rest of the ticket, and let others have a go. Tim Fox declined a run for Senate, I think he’s planning to run for Governor in 2020. State Senate President Scott Sales, a former 2017 who dropped out before also considered a run (for either House or Senate), but ultimately chose not to. I think he's planning to challenge Fox for governor by running to his right. Ed Buttrey was running for Senate but dropped out after Rosendale entered. Rosendale has won statewide before, and has run strong ads. Fred Thomas, who some are scared might blow it, comes from the western part of the state, hopefully he can neutralize Quist’s strength there. Both are avoiding Gianforte’s mistakes, and have connected to the voters well.

Wolf Blitzer: And what do you see going on in 2020?

Steve Daines: Obviously that’s when I run for reelection. These past few cycles have showed me, Republicans can never take anything for granted in Montana. That’s why I will take things seriously, as Roy Blunt told me to. I’m also looking forward to potentially having the first Republican Governor in 16 years. And hopefully our state gets the second House seat back next decade, it would be nice for the Treasure State to have a fourth voice in Congress. I hope Trump is reelected and Zinke continues to run the Interior Department, he’s been great for our state, especially since he’s the first Montanan to serve in the Cabinet!

Wolf Blitzer: All right, that’s all the time that we have. Again, thank you Senator, have a good evening!

Steve Daines: You too, Wolf!

Montana Senator (44% in)
Matt Rosendale: 49%
Jon Tester: 49%

Montana Representative (44% in)
Rob Quist: 48.5%
Fred Thomas: 47.5%

Michigan Governor (96% in)
Brian Calley: 51%  ✓                                                                            
Gretchen Whitmer: 49%

Michigan Senator (96% in)
Randy Richardville: 50.4%
Debbie Stabenow: 49.6%

Wolf Blitzer: Brian Calley has been elected Governor of Michigan. The US Senate race, which nobody expected to flip, however, is still too close to call.

John King: Looking at the remaining precincts, I don't think the 4% that's still out will break hevvily for either candidate. Richardville has already declared victory, but Stabenow refuses to concede. This one will probably go to a recount.

Minnesota Governor (80% in)
Rich Stanek: 49%
Rebecca Otto: 48%                                                                            
Tim Gieske: 3%

Pennsylvania Governor (94% in)
Mike Kelly: 50.3%
Tom Wolf: 49.7%
                                                                        
Virginia Senator (99% in)
Tim Kaine: 49%  ✓
Barbara Comstock: 49%

Jake Tapper: Tim Kaine has jumped into the lead after the last dump of votes from Fairfax County. He leads by just under 1% (slightly over 18,000 votes), similar to Warner's margin in 2014. Comstock has already called to concede.



Nevada Senator (51% in)
Ross Miller: 51%
Dean Heller: 47%

Nevada Governor (51% in)
Adam Laxalt: 49%
Ruben Kihuen: 49%

John King: (Pointing to Clark County) Miller is growing his lead as Clark County continues to dump its votes. Heller is suffering from being from the northern part of the state. Also, he probably shot himself in the foot by talking about his work against Planned Parenthood and for the right to life in one of his TV ads. In a state where Planned Parenthood is very popular even among conservatives, that seems to have hurt him big time. Laxalt, however, is doing better in the Governor race. He benefits from statewide recognition, a more competent campaign, and stronger debate performances.

[MT Treasurer]

Nice work! Daines mentioning Roy Blunt's adivce really cracked me up for some reason, LOL.

[Heisenberg]

Nice work! Daines mentioning Roy Blunt's adivce really cracked me up for some reason, LOL.

Hahaha, I'm glad you liked it. I included that after you mentioned him having the potential to the next Roy Blunt.

[Heisenberg]

11PM Eastern Update:
CALIFORNIA                                                                                  
Senator                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
DIANNE FEINSTEIN ✓
Governor                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
GAVIN NEWSOM ✓

OREGON                                                                                  
Governor                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
KATE BROWN ✓

WASHINGTON                                                                                  
Senator                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
MARIA CANTWELL ✓

HAWAII                                                                                  
Senator                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
MAZIE HIRONO ✓
Governor                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
DAVID IGE ✓

Montana Senator (62% in)
Matt Rosendale: 49.5%
Jon Tester: 48.5%

Montana Representative (62% in)
Rob Quist: 48%
Fred Thomas: 48%

Both Montana races are pretty close. The Montana GOP hopes that this will be the year the state finally has an all-GOP delegation, but it remains to be seen if it actually happens.

Michigan Senator (99% in)
Randy Richardville: 50.2% ✓ Apparent Winner, Recount Pending
Debbie Stabenow: 49.8%

Minnesota Governor (88% in)
Rich Stanek: 49% ✓
Rebecca Otto: 48%                                                                            
Tim Gieske: 3%

Pennsylvania Governor (98% in)
Mike Kelly: 50.2% ✓
Tom Wolf: 49.8%

Republicans take full control in two important midwestern states. This helps them make up for their losses in the Northeast, and in nearby Illinois.
                                                                        
Nevada Senator (70% in)
Ross Miller: 50%
Dean Heller: 48%

Nevada Governor (70% in)
Adam Laxalt: 48.5%
Ruben Kihuen: 48.5%

If Laxalt wins, he'll be facing a legislature with Democratic majorities in both Houses, and Democrats also picked up many of the downballot state offices, too.

(Next update: More on the House races)

[Heisenberg]

11:10 PM: House races:
(Note: I'm retroactively switching Montana a little, Rosendale now the Senate nominee, Gianforte wins the special, but declines reelection due to #Assaultgate).
Jake Tapper: Welcome back to CNN’s election night coverage, it’s been a long and busy night, thanks for staying with us. Joining us now is Larry Sabato, director for the University of Virginia Center for Politics for his take on what is going on. Good evening!
Larry Sabato: Thank you Jake! One thing that really sticks out as obvious is that it appears as if Democrats are beginning to lock in gains in the upscale suburbs. For example. in Houston, John Culberson and Ted Poe won by margins much smaller than what they were used to. In Dallas, TX-32 narrowly flipped, although that was in part due to gaffes made by Pete Sessions. MO-02 also flipped, but again, I’ve written about the downballot elasticity of the area, how Scott Sifton was a strong candidate, and how the bitter GOP primary with weak candidates all helped Democrats. Others, like WA-08, CO-06, GA-07, IL-06, IL-14, and MN-03 fit the trend as well, and, are either super close, or at least less Republican than in the past. Polarization also seems to be increasing even more, as I’ve written many times over the past few months.
Jake Tapper: And what are your thoughts about California?
Larry Sabato: The California results shouldn’t be too surprising. The DCCC has gone all in to target many seats in Orange County and the Central Valley. I predicted CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-48, and CA-49 to flip in my final projections, with CA-45 and even CA-42 and CA-50 being much closer than initially expected. What isn’t helping Republicans there is their national playbook: focusing on retaining as many Trump voters as possible. Their populist, socially conservative, nationalist message that is defining the new Republican Party does not play well in these super wealthy areas. It seems to be playing well in rural Minnesota, where they’ve gained two seats and are close to reclaiming a third, and will likely have strong benefits for them in the future in the Midwest. PA-17 (another 2016 rematch) now has Connolly narrowly leading with 95% in.
Jake Tapper: Other than California and wealthier suburbs, where has this new Republican playbook proven costly to them tonight?
Larry Sabato: Other areas in the Southwest (changing demographics), this is where Republicans pay for their gains in the Rust Belt. Places like CO-06 and AZ-02 were never that Republican-leaning to begin with, but the brand of Republicanism they favored was pretty different from that of Trump. Needless to say, both were top Democratic targets. It was clear that both had lots of #NeverTrump Republicans, and these were places that flipped. Martha McSally also had closely allied herself with John McCain, and her ambition to replace him in 2022 was known, though it could be thwarted with the loss. In the more conservative AZ-01, which Trump won, Republicans thought Gary Kiehne could knock off Tom O’Halloran, but he fell short after several missteps on the campaign trail.
Jake Tapper: And Larry, have you seen any notable exceptions to the trend so far?
Larry Sabato: Yes. IL-12 is an obvious one, though that was very narrow, the Democratic candidate was exceptionally strong (the son of a longtime, popular Democrat who used to represent the district), and the Republican incumbent made a ton of stupid mistakes and made racist remarks. FL-07 and NV-03 would appear to be #NeverTrump districts, but both are marginally Republican downballot, and both are held by freshmen Democrats who won narrowly last cycle. Republicans felt the need to go all in before they get too entrenched. Stephanie Murphy was especially targeted for her extreme focus on Russiagate, which is a sign that people are really sick of hearing about Russia, especially with Mueller’s probe coming to a close and no evidence. NV-03 is also interesting because while Democrats are doing well in the Senate and Legislative races, Republicans are up here and in the Gubernatorial race. Still, it's a swing seat, went for Trump, and a little more Republican downballot.
Jake Tapper: Thank you Larry, have a great evening!
Larry Sabato: You too, Jake!
John King: Here is the House map as of now:

[Heisenberg]

Wolf Blitzer: Right now we have some breaking news out of New Hampshire. It is late in the night, and the last legislative races have all been called. The crowd is exuberant at Stefany Shaheen's watch party, as Democrats across New Hampshire have made historic gains despite a not-so-friendly environment elsewhere. Also of note, this watch party is disproportionately female, Shaheen did come under attack for giving preference to females when hiring campaign managers, and for providing tickets to the watch party at her headquarters. In case you missed it, here is part of her speech that has quickly been praised my many feminists across the country:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

New Hampshire Executive Council:
District 1: Edith Tucker
District 2: Martha Fuller-Clark
District 3: Beth Roth
District 4: Jackie Cilley
District 5: Kathryn Forry

Wolf Blitzer: John, does your magic wall have the State Senate results?
John King: It sure does!
New Hampshire State Senate, 2019-20 Session:

1. Jeff Woodburn (D)
2. Carolyn Mello (D)
3. Jeb Bradley (R)
4. David Watters (D)
5. Patricia Higgins (D)
6. James Gray (R)
7. Harold French (R)
8. Ruth Ward (R)
9. Jeanne Dietsch (D)
10. Jay Kahn (D)
11. Gary Daniels (R)
12. Peggy Gilmour (D)
13. Bette Lasky (D)
14. Sharon Carson (R)
15. Dan Feltes (D)
16. Kathleen Kelley (D)
17. Nancy Fraher (D)
18. Donna Soucy (D)
19. Kristi St. Laurent (D)
20. Ann Kanamine (D)
21. Rebecca McBeath (D)
22. Chuck Morse (R)
23. Alexis Simpson (D)
24. Beverly Hollingworth (D)
Control: 17 D-7 R
The State House will have a 270-130 Democratic majority.

Several seats that were not expected to be competitive flipped, and the Democrats have a large majority that nobody would have expected when the maps were drawn. And as Gov.-elect Shaheen pointed out, it is majority female. I wonder if all the new female freshman Democrats will keep Woodburn as their party's Senate leader when the legislature convenes?

Jake Tapper: From the sound of her speech, I think she's hinting at a possible coup against male leaders in the New Hampshire Democratic Party.

[Heisenberg]

Results:
House:

Net gain of D+11. Republicans will have a 230-205 majority. The general trend is Republicans making more inroads in working-class and rural areas, as well as gaining back two seats they narrowly lost in 2016. Democrats are locking in further gains in California and other more upscale #NeverTrump suburbs that weren't that Republican to begin with. They also capitalized on gaffe-prone incumbents in certain places (such as TX-32, IL-12, WV-02), but expect them to face strong headwinds next cycle. Both parties will announce their top targets and most vulnerable seats soon.

Senate:

Republicans control 59 seats, to 41 for the Democrats. Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin were by by less than 2.5 points, even less for the former two. Kevin Cramer won in North Dakota by a bare majority (50.0%), Chase Iron Eyes (G) had a strong showing of 6%. Immediately in response, Democrats have announced a new strategy for 2020, and intend to go hard on the offense in as many states as possible, hoping to take advantage of Republicans' overexposure. Very quickly, the DSCC has announced that their first recruits will publicly launch campaigns soon after the swearing in of the 116th Congress. RealClearPolitics also ran an article showing that Democrats may have a "Senate Problem" at least in the short term, noting that there are more (non-Atlas colors) red states than blue states, but the DSCC is confident it can win back control within two cycles.

Governors

Key:
90%: No election
60%: Party held
30%: Party gained

Republicans saw a net loss of four, but held up in larger states. Good for them for redistricting. Many Republican seats were narrow wins, but so were some Democrat ones. Maryland went Democratic narrowly as Hogan, to the disappointment of many constituents, expressed support of some unpopular Trump agenda items. In Maine, LePage's unpopularity hurt the GOP, and in Vermont, the Democrat was helped tremendously by Bernie Sanders.

Edit: The following row offices flipped:
MN-Auditor, AZ-SoS, AZ-Superintendent, NV-LG, NV-AG, IA-Treasurer, IA-AG, CO-SoS, CO-Treasurer, CO-AG.

[Heisenberg]

Wow, ND-SEN was a massive upset, no?

Also, VT-GOV was a bit surprising as well, but yeah, Sanders on the ballot explains a lot.

I explained, these were the results:

Cramer (R): 49.85%
Heitkamp (D): 45.45%
Chase Iron Eyes (G): 4.70%

CIE narrowly wins the two mostly Native Counties that Trump lost (I can make a map later if you want), while Cramer people turn out in full force. The county map should look something like this:

And yeah, VT-GOV I think people are overestimating Scott, he will have to share the ballot with Bernie Sanders, and he still has an R next to his name despite being very moderate. The grassroots left in Vermont is pretty strong, and Minter was hurt by losing the primary to a more progressive Democrat, as well as Bill Lee taking votes from Bernie Bros who thought she wasn't liberal enough. Lean/Likely R for now, but TBH him losing when all is said and done won't surprise me at all.

[_]

If its not too much of a bother, could you put the final results for Illinois Governor up?  Want to see how bad my boy lost to Kennedy by.

[Heisenberg]

If its not too much of a bother, could you put the final results for Illinois Governor up?  Want to see how bad my boy lost to Kennedy by.

He loses by about six points in this timeline.

Kennedy (D): 51%
Rauner (R): 45%
Others: 4%

[_]

If its not too much of a bother, could you put the final results for Illinois Governor up?  Want to see how bad my boy lost to Kennedy by.

He loses by about six points in this timeline.

Kennedy (D): 51%
Rauner (R): 45%
Others: 4%

Kind of surprised Kennedy got the nomination in this TL, as it seems likely that Pritzker will be the actual nominee after Madigan and AFL-CIO endorsed him.

[Heisenberg]

If its not too much of a bother, could you put the final results for Illinois Governor up?  Want to see how bad my boy lost to Kennedy by.

He loses by about six points in this timeline.

Kennedy (D): 51%
Rauner (R): 45%
Others: 4%

Kind of surprised Kennedy got the nomination in this TL, as it seems likely that Pritzker will be the actual nominee after Madigan and AFL-CIO endorsed him.

Okay. I wasn't sure who Rauner's opponent would be, I kind of thought Kennedy would be the frontrunner, but I guess common wisdom says the opposite is true. Glad you're following this!

[Heisenberg]

116th Congress, Senate Republican Leadership:

President Pro Tempore: Orrin Hatch (R-UT)
Majority Leader: Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
Majority Whip: John Thune (R-SD)
GOP Conference Chairman: John Barrasso (R-WY)
GOP Conf. Vice Chair: Deb Fischer (R-NE)
GOP Policy Committee Chair: Cory Gardner (R-CO)
GOP Conf. Secretary: Thom Tillis (R-NC)
GOP Outreach, Steering, and Comm. Chair: Ann Wagner (R-MO)
NRSC Chairman: Todd Young (R-IN)

Democratic Leadership:

Minority Leader: Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
Minority Whip: Dick Durbin (D-IL)
Dem. Conference Chair: Patty Murray (D-WA)
Dem. Conf. Vice Chair: Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Dem. Policy Committee Chair: Mark Warner (D-VA)
Dem. Conf. Secretary: Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT)
Dem. Outreach, Steering, and Comm. Chair: Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
DSCC Chairman: Joe Manchin (D-WV)

Republicans, who usually limit leadership positions below Party Leader to three consecutive Congresses, had a major showdown, as many Senators who first assumed their leadership positions declined to seek a waiver, and instead chose to try to move up. A major loser from the battle was Roy Blunt (R-MO), who was attacked for being too close to the Hastert/DeLay House leadership, known for being plagued with many scandals and even further damaging the already toxic Republican image in 2006 (during GWB's 6 year itch, marked by an outrage over Iraq and Congress' scandals). Blunt, previously the Conference Vice Chair, ran for Chair, but lost to Policy Committee Chairman John Barrasso.

Senate Committee Leadership, 116th Senate

Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry
Senator Pat Roberts of Kansas, Chairman
Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, Ranking Member

Committee on Appropriations
Senator Thad Cochran of Mississippi, Chairman
Senator Patrick Leahy of Vermont, Ranking Member

Committee on Armed Services
Senator Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma, Chairman
Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, Ranking Member

Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs
Senator Michael Crapo of Idaho, Chairman
Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Ranking Member

Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation
Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi, Chairman
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Ranking Member

Committee on Energy and National Resources
Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Chairman
Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington, Ranking Member

Committee on Environment and Public Works
Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming, Chairman
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, Ranking Member

Committee on Finance
Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah, Chairman
Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, Ranking Member

Committee on Foreign Relations
Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, Chairman
Senator Ben Cardin of Maryland, Ranking Member

Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs
Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Chairman
Senator Gary Peters of Michigan, Ranking Member

Committee on Judiciary
Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa, Chairman
Senator Diane Feinstein of California, Ranking Member

Committee on Health, Environment, Labor, and Pensions
Senator Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, Chairman
Senator Patty Murray of Washington, Ranking Member

Committee on the Budget
Senator Michael Enzi of Wyoming, Chairman
Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Ranking Member

Committee on Rules
Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama, Chairman
Senator Angus King of Maine, Ranking Member

Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship
Senator Jim Risch of Idaho, Chairman
Senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Ranking Member

Committee on Veterans Affairs
Senator Jerry Moran of Kansas, Chairman
Senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, Ranking Member

Select Committee on Intelligence
Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina, Chairman
Senator Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, Vice-Chair

Special Committee on Aging
Senator Susan Collins of Maine, Chairman
Senator Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania, Ranking Member

Committee on Indian Affairs
Senator John Hoeven of North Dakota, Chairman
Senator Tom Udall of New Mexico, Ranking Member

Select Committee on Ethics
Senator Johnny Isakson of Georgia, Chairman
Senator Chris Coons of Delaware, Ranking Member

Other changes (before the start of the 116th Congress):

Bob Menendez successfully was able to delay the date of his trial until after his election. As expected, New Jersey voters didn't care about corruption, and reelected him anyway, even though he would be found guilty in trial the next month (the judge, in this timeline, denied to delay it any longer). After removal from office, Gov. Phil Murphy (Menendez was relieved that his seat didn't go to a Republican appointed by Christie, even if temporary), appoints South Jersey political giant and NJ-01 Congressman Don Norcross to the seat (December 04, 2018).

The nation mourned as John McCain loses his 17-month battle with brain cancer. He is laid to rest. Gov. Doug Ducey appoints his political ally Andy Tobin, one of the state's Corporation Commissioners and former Arizona Weights and Measures director and State House Speaker (on December 13, 2018), to fill the seat until a November 2020 Special Election. This is in spite of a recommendation by the McCain family to appoint Martha McSally. Ducey states that he chose Tobin due to his service in statewide office (the corporation commission, which he won alongside McCain's 2016 reelection), and mentions the fact that voters (in AZ-02) just rejected her as an argument against appointing her. McCain's biggest fans are disappointed, McSally was seen by many as being groomed to succeed him, and she shares many of the same views. Tobin still has to prove himself as a Senator, and it remains to be seen what wing of the Party he will align himself with, and many agree that he has big shoes to fill.

[Heisenberg]

Freshman Congressional Class of 2018 (55 Members)

Tom Campbell (ND-AL)
Matt Connolly (PA-17)
Kevin Cotter (MI-04)
Tony Dale (TX-31)
Aubrey Dunn (NM-02)
Chad Fincher (AL-01)
Steve Fitzgerald (KS-02)
Jim Hagedorn (MN-01)
Galen Higdon (MO-06)
Dusty Johnson (SD-AL)
Frank LaRose (OH-16)
Luke Malek (ID-01)
Tim Miller (MN-07)
Barry Moore (AL-02)
Pam Myhra (MN-02)
Dan Newberry (OK-01)
Marty Nothstein (PA-15)
Paul Renner (FL-06)
Brad Roae (PA-03)
Michael Roberson (NV-03)
David Simmons (FL-07)
Grant Starrett (TN-04)
Van Taylor (TX-03)
Fred Thomas (MT-AL)
Max Wise (KY-05)
Rich Workman (FL-08)
Cindy Ziemke (IN-06)

Jim Ananich (MI-05)
Doug Applegate (CA-49)
David Carlucci (NY-17)
Andrei Cherny (AZ-09)
Ian Conyers (MI-13)
Jerry Costello II (IL-12)
Pat Davis (NM-01)
Dori Fenenbock (TX-16)
Lucy Flores (NV-04)
Pete Gallego (TX-23)*
Carte Goodwin (WV-02)
Josh Harder (CA-10)
Katie Hill (CA-25)
Caroline Kennedy (NY-12)
Andy Kerr (CO-07)
David Min (CA-45)
Thomas McDermott (IN-01)
Josh Newman (CA-39)
Hannah Pingree (ME-01)
Mike Rawlings (TX-32)
Jose Javier Rodriguez (FL-27)
Harley Rouda (CA-48)
Rudy Salas (CA-21)
Scott Sifton (MO-02)
Victoria Steele (AZ-02)
Levi Tillemann (CO-06)
Bryan Townsend (DE-AL)
Jennifer Wexton (VA-10)

Class Presidents: Jim Hagedorn (R), Doug Applegate (D)

*Gallego tops the whole class in seniority due to previous service. The rest are by last name (alphabetical).

2018 House Republican Leadership:

Speaker of the House: Paul Ryan (R-WI)
Majority Leader: Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)
Majority Whip: Steve Scalise (R-LA)
Chief Deputy Whip: Patrick McHenry (R-NC)
GOP Conf. Chair: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA)
GOP Conf. Vice Chair: Doug Collins (R-GA)
GOP Conf. Secretary: Jason Smith (R-MO)
GOP Policy Committee Chair: Susan Brooks (R-IN)
NRCC Chair: Steve Stivers (R-OH)

Democratic Leadership:

Minority Leader: Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
Minority Whip: Steny Hoyer (D-MD)
Assistant Minority Whip: Jim Clyburn (D-SC)
DCCC Chair: Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM)
Chief Deputy Whip: John Lewis (D-GA)
Dem. Caucus Chair: Joe Crowley (D-NY)
Dem. Caucus Vice Chair: Linda Sanchez (D-CA)
Dem. Policy Committee Co-Chairs: Eric Swalwell (D-CA), Rosa DeLauro (D-CT)

Pelosi is once again challenged for the Democratic leader role, this time by Ron Kind, who strikes a tone similar to that of Tim Ryan two years earlier. Like Ryan, Kind stated that Pelosi had been leader for too long, was ineffective, and that Republicans were rooting for her to stay on for their own political gain. Pelosi, helped by her connections and geography (many Democrats from urban centers and the coasts - their biggest geographic bases - remained loyal to her, Kind’s strength was mostly from the party’s diminishing rural and moderate wings). Rumors begin to swirl that many of the top ranking Democratic House leaders plan to retire in 2020, so behind the scenes, many younger representatives plan their next moves, and the House Democrats are expected to have a major shakeup in their leadership for the 117th Congress.

On January 4, just one day after Congress was sworn in, the first Repreesentative (a Democrat) announced his retirement. And with it, he became the first major Democrat to announce he will be challenging President Trump in 2020. (Any guesses? )

[Heisenberg]

It's Official! John Delaney to seek Democratic nomination for President in 2020.
Four-term Congressman becomes first major (Senator, Governor, or Representative; current or former) Democrat to officially file 2020 Candidacy for President with the FEC. Also vows not to run for reelection if he drops out, says he's no Marco Rubio. Plans major speech in Rockville, MD on Friday, January 11, 2019.

2020 Presidential Election, early look:

2020 Primary (Democratic Voters Only)
John Delaney: 2%
"Someone Else": 60%
Undecided: 38%

2020 Primary (Democratic Voters Only)
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Cory Booker: 15%
Kamala Harris: 15%
Al Franken: 12%
Mark Zuckerberg: 10%
The Rock: 9%
Roy Cooper: 5%
John Delaney: 2%
"Someone Else": 4%
Undecided: 13%

2020 General, against Delaney:
Donald Trump (R): 42%
John Delaney (D): 32%
Third Party: 4%
Undecided: 22%

Favorability of Delaney (Nationwide, all voters)
Favorable: 20%
Unfavorable: 16%
Neutral/Don't Know Enough: 64%

[Heisenberg]

New Trump Administration Members, 2019:
Trump named Rob Woodall to lead Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Andy Harris to lead National Institute of Health (NHI).
Donald Trump named Congressman Rob Woodall (R-GA-07) to lead the Federal Highway Administration, citing his work representing parts of Metro Atlanta in the House, an area with a vast, sprawling freeway system, which had needed repairs (as evidenced by the bridge collapse in 2017). He cites Woodall’s dedication to serving his constituency and addressing the needs of the district and the surrounding area, and for taking a leading role in addressing infrastructure nationwide in 2018. Many Republicans express disappointment, because this will open up his Congressional seat to a potentially costly and stressful Special Election. Many analysts cite the potential similarities to the 2017 Special Election in the neighboring and politically similar GA-06, where a long-fought, expensive campaign went on, but ultimately resulted in Republicans holding the seat.
At the end of 2018, Francis Collins suddenly announced his retirement from the NHI after nearly ten years of service, effective upon the confirmation of a successor. Dr. Andy Harris, MD, Republican Congressman from Maryland’s 1st District, was nominated for the position. Hearings were held in the first week of the new Congress, and he was confirmed on January 10.

Early Look, 2019 Congressional Special Elections:
These appointments create two additional special elections to fill unexpired terms for seats in Congress, in addition to the one for NJ-01 (vacated by now-Senator Donald Norcross).
MD-01: This seat is R+14, covering the entire Eastern Shore along with parts of suburban Baltimore. Democrats plan to make a play for the seat, hoping to give Maryland an all-Democratic delegation. Nominees were decided by committees (on January 19), and a Special Election will be held Tuesday, February 12. State Delegate Christopher Adams (R) was chosen by the Republican convention over five other candidates. Adams, unlike Harris, is from the Eastern shore. Former Democratic Congressman Frank Kratovil is his party’s nominee for the seat. Kratovil now runs is a district specifically gerrymandered to be a Republican vote sink. However, in the previous version of the seat, Kratovil had won narrowly in an upset in 2008, albeit narrowly, and riding the Obama wave, and capitalizing on Harris’s Baltimore County residence to rack up votes from the Eastern Shore. Democrats nonetheless intend to make a big play for this seat, hoping to at least force Republicans to play defense.

GA-07: This is R+9, but has been trending significantly to the left in recent years. Many cite the potential for similarity to the 2017 Special Election for the 6th District, and Democrats intend to target the district, hoping that a better campaign, a more vetted candidate, and the possibility of changing demographics and voter attitudes will lead them to success this time. Election will be in the same format as the one in 2017.The Republican candidates are State Rep. and unsuccessful 2010 Primary candidate Clay Cox, businessman Jef Fincher (another 2010 candidate), unsuccessful 2017 GA-06 candidate Bob Gray (who moved to this district to run), 2016 RNC Delegate and 2012 primary challenger David Hancock, State Rep. and former Snellville Mayor Brett Harrell, and former Christian Coalition director Ralph Reed. Businessman David Kim is running as a Democrat for the seat, hoping to run an outsider, grassroots campaign while also capitalizing his work for the community and willingness to cross party lines. He hopes to avoid Ossoff’s mistakes by keeping a consistent message, distancing himself more from national Democratic leaders, and not accepting donations and endorsements from celebrities and out of state, running a local, grassroots campaign, which he plans to mostly self-fund. The blanket primary will be on March 19, and the runoff on May 7.

RCP Polling Average:
Kim: 43%
Harrell: 14%
Cox: 13%
Gray: 13%
Reed: 7%
Fincher: 2%
Hancock: 1%
Other/Undecided: 7%

Gray entered the race with name recognition from 2017, and ran as the most pro-Trump candidate. All Republicans openly support Trump.

NJ-01: In this D+14 seat, the real contest is typically in the Democratic Primary. Dana Redd (D), former mayor of Camden, will be her party’s nominee, facing of 2014 nominee and former NFL player Gerry Cobb. Candidates were chosen at conventions on January 12, and will face off in a special election on March 5. Democrats are heavily favored.

[TheSaint250]

Great job so far!

[Heisenberg]

Great job so far!

Thanks! Glad you like it!

[Heisenberg]

John Delaney Announcement
Thank you everybody! I could not be more pleased to announce, that I am running for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States! It has been an honor serving the great people of Maryland's Sixth Congressional District for the past six years. I first decided to run because I wanted to make a difference for the better. Running for office is not easy, and neither is serving. I have faced some tough races, but I never gave up, and I am now serving my fourth term in Congress. I am a businessman, but I know how to keep it together and make negotiations. I understand that supporting business is good, it helps our economy grow, and great jobs. And, unlike some others who ran with a similar l, business-oriented theme, I already know how the legislative process works. And I also know that while family is important, I understand the need to separate family and business.
In Congress, I have been disappointed by the excessive partisanship that has plagued Washington. I have made friends on Capitol Hill, Democrats and Republicans. And when we work together, we can really get things done. I would like to thank Congressman Rodney Davis for cosponsoring my bill, the Partnership to Build America Act, which passed the House in Fall 2017. I would also like to thank Senator Bennet and Senator Blunt for introducing the bill in the Senate, where it passed with strong bipartisan support, and yes, I also want to thank President Trump for signing it into law. The Partnership to Build America Act helps us rebuild our nation's crumbling infrastructure by creating public-private partnerships to develop the projects. We needed it, and we got it done, the bipartisan way, or as it should be, the proper way!
So while Trump did work with both sides of the aisle on infrastructure, that is not the way he governs in other areas, unfortunately. For Healthcare, he refused to even talk to Democrats for the most part. And what did we get once he finally was able to get a skinny repeal through the Senate, after like four or so unsuccessful tries, what did we get? Something bad! All we got was a small patch to the problem that will only delay the imminent collapse of our healthcare another two years, and he got Republicans to pass it in hopes of trying to shift the blame on us. No, Republicans should have properly funded it from the beginning rather than wait until 2018. And we need to stop name wooing and scapegoating. The goal is to make sure that people can continue to afford health coverage, and the only way to do that is work in a bipartisan fashion, not single out a large group of people and refuse to work with them because of their party. County before party. Together we will take back the White House and move our country forward, and make Washington work for all the people, no matter their race, gender, sexuality, religion, or income bracket! No more hatred, no more bullying, no more cronyism! Thank you, and God bless America!

While some Democrats praise the quality of the speech, his positive, pragmatic tone, and his attacks on Trump's temperament and weaknesses, progressives rip Delaney's message as being too corporatist and moderate, and not "resisting" enough. Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris have both been meeting with donors, have hired consultants and strategists, and are expected to run. Both are expected to do well with progressives, though they represent different geographic areas (East and West Coasts, respectively). The field has the potential to get really crowded.

[Heisenberg]

Biden, Sanders Out; Many Other Democrats Considering

Biden squashes any rumors of a 2020 run. It has been an honor to serve my country for over 40 years, and I appreciate all the support I have received. However, just to be clear, I will not seek the presidency in 2020. I have no doubt I would win if I ran, but I think it's time for some new leadership the Democratic Party. There are many great potential candidates who can win.


(Excerpt from NBC Nightly News interview): What I started back in 2015 was a movement. And it went way further than man people thought. Our Revolution is a grassroots, citizen-oriented movement, and it will lead us to taking back the White House next year with a bold progressive candidate who will show America that we are an inclusive society for all people, and reject tyranny from the top half of the top one percent. I don't know who that will be, but it will not be me.

Biden and Sanders are out, but many Democrats are openly considering, and the field could get nearly as large as the 2016 Republican field.
Democrats Openly Considering:
Kamala Harris
Elizabeth Warren
Cory Booker
Al Franken
Amy Klobuchar
Kirsten Gillibrand
Andrew Cuomo
Roy Cooper
Steve Bullock
Jay Inslee
Mark Zuckerberg
The Rock (switched from R to I, then from I to D in 2018)
Catherine Cortez-Masto
Martin O'Malley

Meanwhile, Jeff Flake is scheduled to appear with Senator Ben Sasse in Council Bluffs, IA, to announce a follow up to his 2017 book, Conscience of a Conservative. Why might Sasse, representing Nebraska, hold the rally on the other side of the Missouri River? And why is Flake joining him? Stay tuned!

[King Lear]

Please continue this TL Heisenberg I find it very detailed and compelling.

[King Lear]

Obviously, nobody listened to me the first, but I’d really like Heisenberg to continue this timeline. It’s a shame such a well-written and realistic timeline has been ignored while many outlandish ones have received great attention.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Obviously, nobody listened to me the first, but I’d really like Heisenberg to continue this timeline. It’s a shame such a well-written and realistic timeline has been ignored while many outlandish ones have received great attention.

This was a good TL. So are others. Stop polluting every place and throwing dirt on everything for your obsession, please. Thanks.