NE-2: Anne Ashford?

[BL53931]

Omaha World Heard story re Brad Ashford's wife running to take back this seat next year:

http://www.omaha.com/news/politics/ann-ferlic-ashford-considering-a-run-for-husband-s-old/article_16f53724-eac6-57d5-9d9f-1788f38f625d.html

My first reaction was 'who???'

I may be wrong, she could be a credible candidate. I had never heard much about her and apart from her name i just don't see what she would bring that would help her beat Bacon. NE Democrats always do this stuff. they don't pick their strongest candidates.

[Mr.Phips]

Brad Ashford's performance here in 2016 was pathetic.  Trump only won here 48%-46%.  Any non scandal tarred incumbent should be able to run a point ahead of their Presidential nominee.

[publicunofficial]

Brad Ashford's performance here in 2016 was pathetic.  Trump only won here 48%-46%.  Any non scandal tarred incumbent should be able to run a point ahead of their Presidential nominee.

What scandal did Ashford have?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Brad Ashford's performance here in 2016 was pathetic.  Trump only won here 48%-46%.  Any non scandal tarred incumbent should be able to run a point ahead of their Presidential nominee.

What scandal did Ashford have?

None, I think that's Mr. Phips' point.

[PAK Man]

Ashford's problem, if I remember correctly, was that he didn't take his fundraising seriously and had initially refused national help. He got better as the campaign went on, but his slow start is probably what did it in for him in the end.

I'm at least happy to see Democrats aren't giving up on this district. It's definitely winnable for them.

[Mr.Phips]

Ashford's problem, if I remember correctly, was that he didn't take his fundraising seriously and had initially refused national help. He got better as the campaign went on, but his slow start is probably what did it in for him in the end.

I'm at least happy to see Democrats aren't giving up on this district. It's definitely winnable for them.

Agreed. In a swing district like this, you need to be fundraising for your reelection before you even get sworn into office.

[Indy Texas]

Ashford's problem, if I remember correctly, was that he didn't take his fundraising seriously and had initially refused national help. He got better as the campaign went on, but his slow start is probably what did it in for him in the end.

I'm at least happy to see Democrats aren't giving up on this district. It's definitely winnable for them.

Patrick Stewart meme - Why the @#$% would you refuse national help??!!!

[Vega]

Ashford's problem, if I remember correctly, was that he didn't take his fundraising seriously and had initially refused national help. He got better as the campaign went on, but his slow start is probably what did it in for him in the end.

I'm at least happy to see Democrats aren't giving up on this district. It's definitely winnable for them.

Patrick Stewart meme - Why the @#$% would you refuse national help??!!!

Probably because he wanted to avoid the big money label or something. It is honorable really.

[Skill and Chance]

Is running the spouse of someone who just got voted out really the best idea in a swing district?

[Heisenberg]

How did this seat even flip in 2014? Was the incumbent Republican that terrible?

Pretty much. Lee Terry made controversial comments during the shutdown. In hindsight, 2014 looks like a total fluke.

[windjammer]

How did this seat even flip in 2014? Was the incumbent Republican that terrible?

Yeah he was unpopular .

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Please dear god not any Ashford. Her husband is a so sh**tty campaigner.

[Figueira]

How did this seat even flip in 2014? Was the incumbent Republican that terrible?

Pretty much. Lee Terry made controversial comments during the shutdown. In hindsight, 2014 looks like a total fluke.

I mean, it was pretty obvious that it was even in 2014, but that doesn't mean that Democrats will NEVER win that district again. Clinton and Ashford barely lost it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How did this seat even flip in 2014? Was the incumbent Republican that terrible?

Pretty much. Lee Terry made controversial comments during the shutdown. In hindsight, 2014 looks like a total fluke.

It definitely wasn't a fluke; this district is pretty clearly a swing-district with a small Republican lean.  Did Ashford win despite 2014's massive Republican wave because of Lee Terry?  Absolutely.  However, I'd argue that the election also showed that a mediocre Democrat can beat a weak Republican here (even in a year like 2014).  Furthermore, this is a district where I'd expect to see a real backlash against Trump come 2018 even if it is just a neutral year (which, if things keep going the way they have been, it probably won't be).  There are obviously other districts like VA-10, CA-49, and KS-3 where I'd expect to see a serious backlash occur before somewhere like NE-2, but this is still a district in which I'd expect a significant anti-Trump backlash barring a real Republican wave.

I'd also add that we shouldn't assume Anne Ashford will be the Democratic nominee even if she runs.  While I could see her winning (Don Bacon strikes me as the type of unremarkable, milquetoast incumbent whose fortunes will be closely tied to the national mood during the next couple of cycles, assuming he even survives 2018), I have a hard time believing that there aren't significantly stronger potential Democratic candidates and given how competitive this district has gotten, one would think other folks would also be taking a look (especially since 2018 currently – although it is obviously ridiculously early for these sorts of predictions – appears far more likely to be a large Democratic wave election than a Republican one). 

Lastly, while Brad Ashford never impressed me as a candidate and I'm pretty sure he'd have won by at least 4-5% had he run a competent campaign (Bacon was generally considered to be a fairly weak wave insurance candidate at best, IIRC), I don't see much evidence that he was unpopular.  If anything, the 2016 election confirms that this is a swing-district since you had a weak, unremarkable Democrat facing a weak, unremarkable Republican in a Republican wave election and the Democrat only lost by 1% (despite running a very weak campaign).  Even if 2018 is a neutral or mildly Republican-leaning year for some reason, the Democrats should still be able to pick-up this seat with a decent candidate (or failing that, perhaps even with a B-list one).

[KingSweden]

Pete Festersen and Jeremy Nordquist would be considerably superior candidates