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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #25 on: March 14, 2017, 10:20:23 AM »



1. Totally disagree on K-State. Of all potential upsets, I have seen nothing to indicate that this team is capable at playing at a high level. Zero shooters. Odds should be no better than 20%. ESPN nailed this. Kudos.

2. Middle Tennessee, yes, everyone is picking. They are just about as good.
3. Princeton, against any other opponent would be a great pick, but this is not More Likely Than Not lol. KenPom looks right.
4. Xavier and Maryland are both pathetic, so who cares. I mean, I guess it's close to 50-50.
5. Providence certainly could, but I don't think they have enough offensive threats at the end of the day. Certainly a chance, but I'd put it a tick under 40% given they beat USC. So Ezekowitz beats the ratings outlets in my book.
6. Purdue is a Final Four threat given that they defeat Vermont. I think this is a more athletic Purdue team than traditionally so they should be less susceptible to the early exit, but Vermont is still Vermont - year-in and year-out a contender. Somewhere between Ezekowitz and KenPom.
7. Baylor is bad but not that bad. Should be more like 12%.
8. ETSU and URI should have much higher odds given the make-up of their opponents rosters for this game, especially URI. I buy KenPom for that and respect the Ezekowitz number for ETSU though it could be more like 33%

9. Butler is susceptible to playing down to opponents, but I have no reason to suspect a loss is double digit probability. Not sure why UNC-Wilmington is not at a higher probability than this - which I would actually pin at 40% (or even Nevada for goodness sakes, which I don't actually expect).

At the end of the day, the NCAA appears to have tried to fix it again to get the matchups they want in later rounds. That includes making upsets far more unlikely for Princeton and Vermont than they ought to be.
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Harry
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« Reply #26 on: March 14, 2017, 03:08:17 PM »

The only question is whether Gonzaga loses to Vanderbilt this weekend or West Virginia next. We all know they'll choke like they do every single year.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #27 on: March 14, 2017, 03:10:36 PM »
« Edited: March 14, 2017, 03:13:55 PM by Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ »

The only question is whether Gonzaga loses to Vanderbilt this weekend or West Virginia next. We all know they'll choke like they do every single year.

I'd be quite shocked if either team got the opportunity to play the Zags, especially WVU, but I suppose the appropriate upset could help them luck their way into such a place to fail.


Now, the Irish...there's a team that seems explicitly placed there to force this narrative to continue in a high stakes match up.
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Harry
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« Reply #28 on: March 14, 2017, 03:29:14 PM »

The only question is whether Gonzaga loses to Vanderbilt this weekend or West Virginia next. We all know they'll choke like they do every single year.

I'd be quite shocked if either team got the opportunity to play the Zags, especially WVU, but I suppose the appropriate upset could help them luck their way into such a place to fail.

You would be "quite shocked" if Vanderbilt wins a 8-9 matchup, a game that the various computer polls have as a 50-50 game?

You would "quite shocked" if West Virginia, a team that all of the Upshot's computer models have as a 60%+ of making the Sweet 16, makes the Sweet 16?

Even if you throw out the computers, who is ever "quite shocked" at a 9-seed making the Round of 32 or a 4-seed making the Sweet 16?
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #29 on: March 14, 2017, 04:46:57 PM »

Has anyone ever tried the BracketCaster?  It can give you weird, but fun, results sometimes.  Last night, I got Vanderbilt, Seton Hall, and Michigan to win it all in three different simulations.

http://accuscore.com/home/sports-college-basketball/ncaa-tournament-bracket-2017
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #30 on: March 14, 2017, 05:30:06 PM »
« Edited: March 14, 2017, 05:33:55 PM by Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ »

The only question is whether Gonzaga loses to Vanderbilt this weekend or West Virginia next. We all know they'll choke like they do every single year.

I'd be quite shocked if either team got the opportunity to play the Zags, especially WVU, but I suppose the appropriate upset could help them luck their way into such a place to fail.

You would be "quite shocked" if Vanderbilt wins a 8-9 matchup, a game that the various computer polls have as a 50-50 game?

You would "quite shocked" if West Virginia, a team that all of the Upshot's computer models have as a 60%+ of making the Sweet 16, makes the Sweet 16?

Even if you throw out the computers, who is ever "quite shocked" at a 9-seed making the Round of 32 or a 4-seed making the Sweet 16?

Oh, you're right on Vanderbilt, that is as true a 50-50 game as they come. Perhaps 'be competitive' would be more accurate. West Virginia is truly not all that good, so yes, that would shock me.

Hey, anything can happen: Maybe the full court can even rattle a team built like Gonzaga for a little bit, but I still have a very difficult time seeing them get there.
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FairBol
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« Reply #31 on: March 15, 2017, 11:46:10 AM »

Did anyone fill out a bracket? I have Kansas winning this year.

Same.  I think they will beat Gonzaga in the championship game.  Smiley
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Donerail
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« Reply #32 on: March 15, 2017, 12:11:17 PM »

Taking UNC over Villanova in the title game, because it's been that kind of year for narratives.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #33 on: March 15, 2017, 12:51:56 PM »

     Is it me or is Michigan way too strong to be a No.7 seed? I know they started off the season poorly, but I see them punching well above their weight class.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #34 on: March 15, 2017, 03:11:05 PM »

     Is it me or is Michigan way too strong to be a No.7 seed? I know they started off the season poorly, but I see them punching well above their weight class.

It probably won't matter for long, as they're going up against Louisville in the Round of 32.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #35 on: March 15, 2017, 04:50:28 PM »
« Edited: March 15, 2017, 04:53:51 PM by Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ »

    Is it me or is Michigan way too strong to be a No.7 seed? I know they started off the season poorly, but I see them punching well above their weight class.

It probably won't matter for long, as they're going up against Louisville in the Round of 32.

This is one of the most popular second round upsets however, since Louisville is not particularly deserving of a 2 seed. Of course, they are in the weakest region, so who knows how far they can go. Certainly better than Michigan but by how much?
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JGibson
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« Reply #36 on: March 16, 2017, 02:44:28 AM »

Final Four: Gonzaga, Villanova, Kentucky, Louisville.
Championship Game: Villanova v. Kentucky.
Winner: Villanova.
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FairBol
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« Reply #37 on: March 16, 2017, 05:26:27 PM »

This is one of my favorite times of year.  The Madness is on, baby.  Smiley
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #38 on: March 16, 2017, 07:50:48 PM »

Has anyone ever seen a loss as heartbreaking as Vandy's today?  I'm a diehard VU fan and didn't know what to say for a long time after that!
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #39 on: March 16, 2017, 08:01:47 PM »

Has anyone ever seen a loss as heartbreaking as Vandy's today?  I'm a diehard VU fan and didn't know what to say for a long time after that!

I feel pretty bad for the guy that lost track of the score at the end and misfouled.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #40 on: March 16, 2017, 09:22:40 PM »

I hate Vanderbilt, and I cried my eyes out. I felt so bad for so many people today, but that was tough. One of the saddest events in all of sports year-in and year-out.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #41 on: March 17, 2017, 10:11:17 PM »

The only game I could call with any degree of confidence is Miami over Sparty.

Why's that? I've been personally torn about this game in my brackets, but I've leaned Michigan State because of the experience the team has + Tom Izzo's coaching ability.

I'll certainly be cheering for Michigan State, but what have they done at all this year? Get beaten badly on the road by OSU, Illinois, Indiana and Penn State with no wins of note? All half-decent wins came when their opponents were in the midst of extremely cold streaks.


Bahahahahahaha! At least my critique of the upset odds making was way more on point.



Wow...
Now I better just hope tomorrow's first two games go as expected or I will have less credibility than Nate Silver after building up so much!
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FairBol
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« Reply #42 on: March 18, 2017, 01:15:09 PM »

Didn't do too bad in the second round.....about sixty percent correct.  Not totally the greatest, but not horrible either.  Smiley
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #43 on: March 18, 2017, 01:24:38 PM »

The only question is whether Gonzaga loses to Vanderbilt this weekend or West Virginia next. We all know they'll choke like they do every single year.

I'd be quite shocked if either team got the opportunity to play the Zags, especially WVU, but I suppose the appropriate upset could help them luck their way into such a place to fail.

You would be "quite shocked" if Vanderbilt wins a 8-9 matchup, a game that the various computer polls have as a 50-50 game?

You would "quite shocked" if West Virginia, a team that all of the Upshot's computer models have as a 60%+ of making the Sweet 16, makes the Sweet 16?

Even if you throw out the computers, who is ever "quite shocked" at a 9-seed making the Round of 32 or a 4-seed making the Sweet 16?

Oh, you're right on Vanderbilt, that is as true a 50-50 game as they come. Perhaps 'be competitive' would be more accurate. West Virginia is truly not all that good, so yes, that would shock me.

Hey, anything can happen: Maybe the full court can even rattle a team built like Gonzaga for a little bit, but I still have a very difficult time seeing them get there.

WRONG!
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Harry
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« Reply #44 on: March 18, 2017, 01:34:26 PM »

Notre Lame loses in the least surprising game of the whole tournament so far.
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #45 on: March 18, 2017, 04:26:20 PM »

Thanks a lot, Villanova.

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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #46 on: March 18, 2017, 04:32:28 PM »

Die NCAA for seeding malpractice, die Wisconsin for voting Trump, die Hillary you should have won, death to all of you, disband basketball
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KingSweden
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« Reply #47 on: March 18, 2017, 05:29:28 PM »

I have a nasty feeling GU makes it to the final four now that I don't live in Spokane anymore

Then again, don't ever bet on the Zags to do anything
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #48 on: March 18, 2017, 11:35:25 PM »

First time filling out a March Madness bracket (too bad I didn't see the Atlas pool tho). Doing pretty good so far, Duke just needs to not f it up.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #49 on: March 19, 2017, 01:25:16 PM »

    Is it me or is Michigan way too strong to be a No.7 seed? I know they started off the season poorly, but I see them punching well above their weight class.

It probably won't matter for long, as they're going up against Louisville in the Round of 32.

This is one of the most popular second round upsets however, since Louisville is not particularly deserving of a 2 seed. Of course, they are in the weakest region, so who knows how far they can go. Certainly better than Michigan but by how much?

My apologies lol.
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