March Madness?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I do not fill out a bracket, but I have never had less faith in a Kansas team, no disrespect toward that opinion. KenPom ranking them 10th sounds slightly aggressive even with the miserable miscalculations ahead of them. UNC, Gonzaga, and Duke are all much deeper and Villanova has the best player who can carry a team along with the superstar beside him in the backcourt a la UConn 2014. And I probably shouldn't disrespect Arizona either.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I would not even know where to begin with the Midwest region. Oregon was my #1 all season until the Boucher injury. That leaves me a bit clueless now. The only game I could call with any degree of confidence is Miami over Sparty. The 10-13 seeds are exceptionally strong but at the same time, the 4, 5, and 7 ought to be positioned to make a run should they survive a tougher than deserved first test. I like the Michigan pick on match-ups alone though I doubt they are close to the best.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The only game I could call with any degree of confidence is Miami over Sparty.

Why's that? I've been personally torn about this game in my brackets, but I've leaned Michigan State because of the experience the team has + Tom Izzo's coaching ability.

I'll certainly be cheering for Michigan State, but what have they done at all this year? Get beaten badly on the road by OSU, Illinois, Indiana and Penn State with no wins of note? All half-decent wins came when their opponents were in the midst of extremely cold streaks.

Not sure where the experience argument is coming from necessarily. Eron Harris is the only player of note from last year. Matt McQuaid has failed to develop as expected.
Miami meanwhile has a couple returning pieces from a very strong team last year - less a bit of size - but still managed to compete at a very high level in the best conference. No road defeats were that bad, and they managed to take one at JPJ, one of the toughest places to play in all of college basketball (while Virginia too was on a cold streak, they really just had 3 losses against the top 5 teams in the country...it wasn't a true cold streak until Miami came in to steal one) Beyond that, beating Duke anywhere is impressive in its own right. Michigan State has never played up to a level like Miami has this year, and even Miami at its worst might have lost...Wisconsin or Northwestern from MSU's slate?

I know we're supposed to be comparing teams rather than resumes, but I have seen nothing to indicate that MSU can keep up with the Canes this year, styles aside. Izzo's made a couple boneheaded calls too, which have been dreadful to experience. Do they even have a coaching edge!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

1. Totally disagree on K-State. Of all potential upsets, I have seen nothing to indicate that this team is capable at playing at a high level. Zero shooters. Odds should be no better than 20%. ESPN nailed this. Kudos.

2. Middle Tennessee, yes, everyone is picking. They are just about as good.
3. Princeton, against any other opponent would be a great pick, but this is not More Likely Than Not lol. KenPom looks right.
4. Xavier and Maryland are both pathetic, so who cares. I mean, I guess it's close to 50-50.
5. Providence certainly could, but I don't think they have enough offensive threats at the end of the day. Certainly a chance, but I'd put it a tick under 40% given they beat USC. So Ezekowitz beats the ratings outlets in my book.
6. Purdue is a Final Four threat given that they defeat Vermont. I think this is a more athletic Purdue team than traditionally so they should be less susceptible to the early exit, but Vermont is still Vermont - year-in and year-out a contender. Somewhere between Ezekowitz and KenPom.
7. Baylor is bad but not that bad. Should be more like 12%.
8. ETSU and URI should have much higher odds given the make-up of their opponents rosters for this game, especially URI. I buy KenPom for that and respect the Ezekowitz number for ETSU though it could be more like 33%

9. Butler is susceptible to playing down to opponents, but I have no reason to suspect a loss is double digit probability. Not sure why UNC-Wilmington is not at a higher probability than this - which I would actually pin at 40% (or even Nevada for goodness sakes, which I don't actually expect).

At the end of the day, the NCAA appears to have tried to fix it again to get the matchups they want in later rounds. That includes making upsets far more unlikely for Princeton and Vermont than they ought to be.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The only question is whether Gonzaga loses to Vanderbilt this weekend or West Virginia next. We all know they'll choke like they do every single year.

I'd be quite shocked if either team got the opportunity to play the Zags, especially WVU, but I suppose the appropriate upset could help them luck their way into such a place to fail.


Now, the Irish...there's a team that seems explicitly placed there to force this narrative to continue in a high stakes match up.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The only question is whether Gonzaga loses to Vanderbilt this weekend or West Virginia next. We all know they'll choke like they do every single year.

I'd be quite shocked if either team got the opportunity to play the Zags, especially WVU, but I suppose the appropriate upset could help them luck their way into such a place to fail.

You would be "quite shocked" if Vanderbilt wins a 8-9 matchup, a game that the various computer polls have as a 50-50 game?

You would "quite shocked" if West Virginia, a team that all of the Upshot's computer models have as a 60%+ of making the Sweet 16, makes the Sweet 16?

Even if you throw out the computers, who is ever "quite shocked" at a 9-seed making the Round of 32 or a 4-seed making the Sweet 16?

Oh, you're right on Vanderbilt, that is as true a 50-50 game as they come. Perhaps 'be competitive' would be more accurate. West Virginia is truly not all that good, so yes, that would shock me.

Hey, anything can happen: Maybe the full court can even rattle a team built like Gonzaga for a little bit, but I still have a very difficult time seeing them get there.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

    Is it me or is Michigan way too strong to be a No.7 seed? I know they started off the season poorly, but I see them punching well above their weight class.

It probably won't matter for long, as they're going up against Louisville in the Round of 32.

This is one of the most popular second round upsets however, since Louisville is not particularly deserving of a 2 seed. Of course, they are in the weakest region, so who knows how far they can go. Certainly better than Michigan but by how much?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I hate Vanderbilt, and I cried my eyes out. I felt so bad for so many people today, but that was tough. One of the saddest events in all of sports year-in and year-out.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The only game I could call with any degree of confidence is Miami over Sparty.

Why's that? I've been personally torn about this game in my brackets, but I've leaned Michigan State because of the experience the team has + Tom Izzo's coaching ability.

I'll certainly be cheering for Michigan State, but what have they done at all this year? Get beaten badly on the road by OSU, Illinois, Indiana and Penn State with no wins of note? All half-decent wins came when their opponents were in the midst of extremely cold streaks.

Bahahahahahaha! At least my critique of the upset odds making was way more on point.



Wow...
Now I better just hope tomorrow's first two games go as expected or I will have less credibility than Nate Silver after building up so much!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The only question is whether Gonzaga loses to Vanderbilt this weekend or West Virginia next. We all know they'll choke like they do every single year.

I'd be quite shocked if either team got the opportunity to play the Zags, especially WVU, but I suppose the appropriate upset could help them luck their way into such a place to fail.

You would be "quite shocked" if Vanderbilt wins a 8-9 matchup, a game that the various computer polls have as a 50-50 game?

You would "quite shocked" if West Virginia, a team that all of the Upshot's computer models have as a 60%+ of making the Sweet 16, makes the Sweet 16?

Even if you throw out the computers, who is ever "quite shocked" at a 9-seed making the Round of 32 or a 4-seed making the Sweet 16?

Oh, you're right on Vanderbilt, that is as true a 50-50 game as they come. Perhaps 'be competitive' would be more accurate. West Virginia is truly not all that good, so yes, that would shock me.

Hey, anything can happen: Maybe the full court can even rattle a team built like Gonzaga for a little bit, but I still have a very difficult time seeing them get there.

WRONG!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Die NCAA for seeding malpractice, die Wisconsin for voting Trump, die Hillary you should have won, death to all of you, disband basketball

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

    Is it me or is Michigan way too strong to be a No.7 seed? I know they started off the season poorly, but I see them punching well above their weight class.

It probably won't matter for long, as they're going up against Louisville in the Round of 32.

This is one of the most popular second round upsets however, since Louisville is not particularly deserving of a 2 seed. Of course, they are in the weakest region, so who knows how far they can go. Certainly better than Michigan but by how much?

My apologies lol.

lol, bout dang time something I said had a little bit of merit. Ain't no one was gonna trust a thing I say anymore after the first three days.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

So, this may just be selective memory, but does it always seem as if the SEC is rather terrible for most of the season (decent Big 12 challenge this year but didn't get respect for it) and truly deserving of few teams and with low seeds outside of Kentucky, but then shows up for the tournament? Good for them even if I don't often cheer for them, but I recall a few years back when UT, UK, and UF all went to the Final 8.

Arkansas playing this close with UNC, top two teams in the Final 16 already in quite strong fashion, SC with a great first win and has Duke in their own state tonight...maybe just a coincidence.

Oh, I guess Vandy lost but still. Gave the game away.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The NCAA has a complete embarrassment on their hands at this point. Yet another game changing blown call, this one on video review.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I LOVE YOU GOVERNOR PAT MCCRORY MORE THAN ANYONE IN 21ST CENTURY POLITICS

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

My cheering guide the rest of the way:

Dream Status - 1. Wisconsin
Great! - 2. Xavier (Would be #1 but do not want them to usurp our lowest seed to win title )
Still Happy Results - 3. Arizona; 4. UNC; 5. Michigan; 6. Oregon; 7. Purdue;
Ugh, fine - 8. UCLA (ugh, Ball family pains...); 9. Kansas (Love KU, but too many behavior issues to cheer for); 10. South Carolina; 11. West Virginia
Would ruin Year - 12. Baylor; 13. Gonzaga; 14. Kentucky; 15. Florida; 16. Butler

But with Duke out, we have been saved from the worst case scenario of a comeback tale

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Oh, and the GREATEST CONFERENCE of all-time barely got one team in the Sweet 16 on a blown call?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

rip georgetown so sad, worst catholic school. many tears

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

When was there ever a moment in the second half of that game where it looked like Florida would win?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

3 great schools and Gonzaga. A bad Catholic is obviously worse than a bad public but fortunately these are three solid publics

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

3 great schools and Gonzaga. A bad Catholic is obviously worse than a bad public but fortunately these are three solid publics

What on earth are you talking about?

Like how I have an obligation to cheer against both Boston College and Harvard but BC doing something relevant would be infinitely worse than Harvard making noise if forced to choose between them. Because they are a direct enemy, y'know

Gonzaga is obviously not that evil but still.