Will Scotland vote for independence?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:29:12 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  International General Discussion (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Will Scotland vote for independence?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Poll
Question: ...
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 76

Author Topic: Will Scotland vote for independence?  (Read 3629 times)
LabourJersey
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,145
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: March 15, 2017, 09:05:07 PM »

Unfortunately for the Indy wing, the issue that has caused Irish reunification to become more likely (the EU confirming that border controls would be necessary between the UK and the EU) could potentially cripple the swing vote. After all, last time the SNP could make an argument that border controls would at worst be a temporary annotation, this time round the explicit aim for the SNP is to rejoin the EU, which means border control in the long term.

This is a great point. I never underestimate the British establishment's ability to  things up in general, but I also think the legacy of british history makes hard borders something no one would want.

Also is there actually going to be a referendum on reunification, or is that just a rumor?
Logged
afleitch
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,833


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: March 17, 2017, 03:55:51 PM »


Almost certainly sub-25% and probably less than that. It's not a serious possibility and there will never be vote on the matter.

'Scotland 2006.'
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: March 17, 2017, 04:50:44 PM »


Almost certainly sub-25% and probably less than that. It's not a serious possibility and there will never be vote on the matter.

'Scotland 2006.'

Things can change, obviously. But for now it makes about as much sense to talk about referendums on Yorkshire Independence as Welsh Independence.
Logged
parochial boy
parochial_boy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,114


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: March 17, 2017, 05:13:54 PM »

I think that, in recent years, Wales has very much converged with England, politically speaking. See the similar scores for UKIP, Brexit and the like on both sides of the Border. Scotland, on the other had, really diverged under Thatcher, and by 2006 already voted quite markedly different to England.

So there doesn't really seem to be the scope for Welsh polling on independence to go the way that Scotland has.
Logged
Tetro Kornbluth
Gully Foyle
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,846
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: March 17, 2017, 05:20:17 PM »


Almost certainly sub-25% and probably less than that. It's not a serious possibility and there will never be vote on the matter.

'Scotland 2006.'

Things can change, obviously. But for now it makes about as much sense to talk about referendums on Yorkshire Independence as Welsh Independence.

Hypothetically speaking, in the case of such a referendum this would be the best YES would do - and same patterns do.

As for the question at hand. If the referendum is in 2018-2019, no, if it is in 2021-2023 then yeah I think so.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: March 17, 2017, 05:24:16 PM »

I think that, in recent years, Wales has very much converged with England, politically speaking. See the similar scores for UKIP, Brexit and the like on both sides of the Border. Scotland, on the other had, really diverged under Thatcher, and by 2006 already voted quite markedly different to England.

So there doesn't really seem to be the scope for Welsh polling on independence to go the way that Scotland has.

The salient fact of the recent history of Wales is this: as administrative and political devolution has occurred, Wales has actually become even more integrated culturally and economically with England.
Logged
Tetro Kornbluth
Gully Foyle
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,846
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: March 17, 2017, 05:29:26 PM »

I think that, in recent years, Wales has very much converged with England, politically speaking. See the similar scores for UKIP, Brexit and the like on both sides of the Border. Scotland, on the other had, really diverged under Thatcher, and by 2006 already voted quite markedly different to England.

So there doesn't really seem to be the scope for Welsh polling on independence to go the way that Scotland has.

The salient fact of the recent history of Wales is this: as administrative and political devolution has occurred, Wales has actually become even more integrated culturally and economically with England.

Have the various parts of Wales ever been more economically integrated with each other than with nearby parts of England?

Even now, how much connections are there between Newport and Anglesea that there isn't between two those places and, say, Birmingham?
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: March 17, 2017, 05:40:13 PM »

Have the various parts of Wales ever been more economically integrated with each other than with nearby parts of England?

Never.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

None. I mean, Nooporrrt has more connections to Bristol than it does with anywhere in Wales west of Cardiff, and the main football clubs in North Wales are the Liverpool and Manchester teams...
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: March 17, 2017, 05:47:09 PM »

Example of extent of economic integration: remember the collective Horror Spasm last year when the Port Talbot steelworks were threatened? It is, of course, the largest private sector employer in Wales. Where do its products end up? Engineering firms and automotive manufacturers in the Midlands and North West (and as a result the Manchester-Cardiff railway line is v. important in terms of freight traffic).
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: March 18, 2017, 11:24:52 AM »

Yeah, seems like Sturgeon can't win here. Wonder what the next fish will be.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: March 18, 2017, 11:48:12 AM »

Yeah, seems like Sturgeon can't win here. Wonder what the next fish will be.

Though under present circumstances maintaining the constitutional issue at the absolute centre of political life is a massive win...
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: March 18, 2017, 11:51:58 AM »

Yeah, seems like Sturgeon can't win here. Wonder what the next fish will be.

Though under present circumstances maintaining the constitutional issue at the absolute centre of political life is a massive win...

You mean because it distracts May from her pathological Tory urge to snatch money away from the hands of poor children, the sick, and the elderly?

Good point.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: March 18, 2017, 01:17:05 PM »

You mean because it distracts May from her pathological Tory urge to snatch money away from the hands of poor children, the sick, and the elderly?

Good point.

No, I meant from the point of view of the SNP.

Besides, the Tories are not at all into snatching money away from the elderly these days.
Logged
Clyde1998
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,936
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: March 20, 2017, 09:49:16 AM »

Going back to Wales for the moment (this issue could probably be it's own topic, tbh)

Something that Wales has that Scotland hasn't is a very large English-born population. 21% of people living in Wales were born in England (2011 census) and only 73% were born in Wales - which probably helps explain why Wales has diverged with England, while Scotland hasn't in the same way at least.

Using the Scottish Referendum Study data as a guide. If, in a hypothetical referendum, Welsh voters split the same way on place of birth as Scottish voters did - support for independence would be 3% lower than in Scotland due to the larger rUK population in Wales, showing the demographic differences clearly.

On a 100% population turnout (which is impossible as two year-olds don't vote, but just for argument's sake), Scotland would vote 48.6% in favour on the numbers in the study; Wales would vote 45.8% in favour using the same numbers adjusted for Welsh demographics.

Wales also has a greater economic attachment to England, as well as a social attachment. Additionally, the Welsh Assembly is much less powerful that the Scottish Parliament.

It's all academic though, as Plaid would have to win an majority in Wales on a manifesto pledge to hold a referendum on independence. IIRC, Plaid don't have a referendum in their manifestos and they're probably not going to win a majority in the Welsh Assembly anytime soon.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: March 20, 2017, 10:05:38 AM »

That figure is misleading, although in a way that further demonstrates the differences I guess. The main maternity hospitals for most parts of Wales close to the border are in England; e.g. most families in Flintshire have their children in Chester, most in Mid Wales in Shrewsbury, etc.
Logged
afleitch
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,833


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: March 20, 2017, 11:51:06 AM »

That figure is misleading, although in a way that further demonstrates the differences I guess. The main maternity hospitals for most parts of Wales close to the border are in England; e.g. most families in Flintshire have their children in Chester, most in Mid Wales in Shrewsbury, etc.

I don't know much about how English settlers vote but in Scotland of all minority groups polled (Scottish Asians and Europeans are usually large enough to be polled accurately) on party voting and even to an extent on constitutional matters they vote more in line with Scots. English voters in Scotland tend to be entrenched in their 'native' patterns.
Logged
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,380


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: March 20, 2017, 01:31:55 PM »

Let's talk some more about whales and dolphins. I like whales and dolphins Smiley
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: March 31, 2017, 02:47:34 PM »

If they do vote for independence, say they join the E. U. and adopt the Euro. What country would become their biggest trade partner? Germany? The Netherlands?
Logged
Clyde1998
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,936
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: March 31, 2017, 11:13:03 PM »

If they do vote for independence, say they join the E. U. and adopt the Euro. What country would become their biggest trade partner? Germany? The Netherlands?
The current top few export partners are (there are no import figures):
Rest of the UK - 62% (of total)
United States - 15.9% (of non-UK)
Netherlands - 8.0%
France - 6.3%
Germany - 6.1%
Norway - 4.6%
Denmark - 3.8%
Ireland - 3.5%
Spain - 2.9%
Switzerland - 2.7%
Brazil, UAE - 2.6%

It would likely remain the rUK for the foreseeable future although using a comparable country would give a bit more of an insight. Ireland does most of its exporting with the USA (22.2%), the UK (15.1%), Belgium (13.2%), Germany (6.6%) and Switzerland (5.9%).

That being said, Scotland wouldn't meet the requirements to join the Eurozone, so that may reduce trade with non-Eurozone countries if and when Scotland becomes independent.
Logged
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,157
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: April 03, 2017, 12:30:26 AM »


That being said, Scotland wouldn't meet the requirements to join the Eurozone, so that may reduce trade with non-Eurozone countries if and when Scotland becomes independent.

I'd expect that if Scotland does gain independence then even it doesn't enter into the ERM II the Scots pund will be tied to either the English pound or to the Euro.
Logged
Clyde1998
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,936
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: April 03, 2017, 04:50:19 AM »


That being said, Scotland wouldn't meet the requirements to join the Eurozone, so that may reduce trade with non-Eurozone countries if and when Scotland becomes independent.

I'd expect that if Scotland does gain independence then even it doesn't enter into the ERM II the Scots pund will be tied to either the English pound or to the Euro.
I would imagine it would be similar to what Ireland did before they joined the ERM - having their currency pegged to the Pound to allow for Sterling to be used in Ireland along side the Punt, although Irish currency wasn't able to be used in the UK.

Effectively what happens in Scotland now with the separate Scottish bank notes. Tongue
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.052 seconds with 14 queries.