Will Scotland vote for independence?

[Clyde1998]

Yes. Especially if the No campaign is as shocking as it was last time (no idea who's going to lead it).

There was a Panelbase poll that asked which was closest to the respondents view, an independent Scotland within the EU, independent Scotland outwith the EU and Scotland within the UK & outwith the EU. 37% said indy Scotland within the EU, 11% said indy Scotland outwith the EU and 43% said UK outwith the EU. Which suggests that if the independence support isn't split between support for the EU and opposition to the EU, it would be at 48%, compared to 43% support for the union. The headline question in the poll was Yes 44%, No 51%.

It could all come down to how people who want out of both the UK and EU vote and I believe that they'll side with coming out of the UK - as that's where there's more control over their lives.

[Clyde1998]

Is there anyone who supported Independence then and oppose it now, because of brexit.

According to a YouGov poll conducted between August and December last year:

Voted Yes & Remain - Yes 86%, No 8%, DK 6%
Votes Yes & Leave - Yes 65%, No 25%, DK 9%, Wouldn't Vote 1%
Voted No & Remain - Yes 12%, No 74%, DK 14%
Voted No & Leave - Yes 3%, No 93%, DK 3%, Wouldn't Vote 1%
Didn't Vote in a Ref - Yes 40%, No 27%, DK 19%, Wouldn't Vote 14%

The headline figures for that survey was Yes 39%, No 47%, DK 11%, Wouldn't Vote 4% - making it Yes 46%, No 54% once undecided voters were removed (ie Yes +1 on 2014).

Although this poll was completed three months ago, and the independence movement has recently jumped in the last couple of polls from where they were a month or so ago, it shows that there are a large amount of Yes voters that could move to No due to Brexit.

[Clyde1998]

BTW, are there any sort of datasets that illustrate the differing sentiments on Europe between Scotland and England?

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/How-the-UK-voted-Full-tables-1.pdf

Some of the most interesting questions from that "exit" poll:

Do you think of each of the following as being a force for good, a force for ill, or a mixed-blessing?
Multiculturalism
ENG - Good 47%; Ill 31%
SCO - Good 54%; Ill 25%
WAL - Good 42%; Ill 31%
NIR - Good 47%; Ill 27%

Globalisation
ENG - Good 42%; Ill 24%
SCO - Good 40%; Ill 27%
WAL - Good 41%; Ill 25%
NIR - Good 47%; Ill 19%

Capitalism
ENG - Good 40%; Ill 29%
SCO - Good 34%; Ill 36%
WAL - Good 38%; Ill 31%
NIR - Good 35%; Ill 33%

Immigration
ENG - Good 34%; Ill 41%
SCO - Good 43%; Ill 32%
WAL - Good 30%; Ill 43%
NIR - Good 31%; Ill 43%

Are each of the following more likely to be better if the UK remains in the EU, or better if the UK leaves the EU?
Border controls
ENG - Remains 29%; Leaves 71%
SCO - Remains 32%; Leaves 67%
WAL - Remains 29%; Leaves 71%
NIR - Remains 26%; Leaves 74%

Economic security for you and your family
ENG - Remains 51%; Leaves 49%
SCO - Remains 65%; Leaves 35%
WAL - Remains 47%; Leaves 53%
NIR - Remains 53%; Leaves 47%

Job prospects
ENG - Remains 50%; Leaves 50%
SCO - Remains 62%; Leaves 38%
WAL - Remains 48%; Leaves 52%
NIR - Remains 54%; Leaves 46%

Opportunities for children growing up today
ENG - Remains 50%; Leaves 50%
SCO - Remains 63%; Leaves 37%
WAL - Remains 48%; Leaves 52%
NIR - Remains 52%; Leaves 48%

The NHS
ENG - Remains 42%; Leaves 58%
SCO - Remains 59%; Leaves 41%
WAL - Remains 40%; Leaves 60%
NIR - Remains 50%; Leaves 50%

Fairness in the welfare system
ENG - Remains 42%; Leaves 58%
SCO - Remains 58%; Leaves 42%
WAL - Remains 40%; Leaves 60%
NIR - Remains 48%; Leaves 52%

Our protection against terrorism
ENG - Remains 48%; Leaves 52%
SCO - Remains 63%; Leaves 37%
WAL - Remains 45%; Leaves 55%
NIR - Remains 53%; Leaves 47%

The immigration system
ENG - Remains 29%; Leaves 71%
SCO - Remains 41%; Leaves 59%
WAL - Remains 29%; Leaves 71%
NIR - Remains 25%; Leaves 75%

The cost of living
ENG - Remains 53%; Leaves 47%
SCO - Remains 66%; Leaves 34%
WAL - Remains 51%; Leaves 49%
NIR - Remains 60%; Leaves 40%

Ability to control our own laws
ENG - Remains 21%; Leaves 79%
SCO - Remains 32%; Leaves 68%
WAL - Remains 22%; Leaves 78%
NIR - Remains 23%; Leaves 77%

The economy as a whole
ENG - Remains 51%; Leaves 49%
SCO - Remains 65%; Leaves 35%
WAL - Remains 48%; Leaves 52%
NIR - Remains 53%; Leaves 47%

The UK's influence in the world
ENG - Remains 53%; Leaves 47%
SCO - Remains 67%; Leaves 33%
WAL - Remains 50%; Leaves 50%
NIR - Remains 54%; Leaves 46%

Rights for people in the UK
ENG - Remains 44%; Leaves 56%
SCO - Remains 60%; Leaves 40%
WAL - Remains 42%; Leaves 58%
NIR - Remains 49%; Leaves 51%

Investment in the UK by international companies
ENG - Remains 59%; Leaves 41%
SCO - Remains 71%; Leaves 29%
WAL - Remains 58%; Leaves 42%
NIR - Remains 58%; Leaves 42%

The quality of life in the UK
ENG - Remains 46%; Leaves 54%
SCO - Remains 61%; Leaves 39%
WAL - Remains 45%; Leaves 55%
NIR - Remains 52%; Leaves 48%

[Clyde1998]

Going back to Wales for the moment (this issue could probably be it's own topic, tbh)

Something that Wales has that Scotland hasn't is a very large English-born population. 21% of people living in Wales were born in England (2011 census) and only 73% were born in Wales - which probably helps explain why Wales has diverged with England, while Scotland hasn't in the same way at least.

Using the Scottish Referendum Study data as a guide. If, in a hypothetical referendum, Welsh voters split the same way on place of birth as Scottish voters did - support for independence would be 3% lower than in Scotland due to the larger rUK population in Wales, showing the demographic differences clearly.

On a 100% population turnout (which is impossible as two year-olds don't vote, but just for argument's sake), Scotland would vote 48.6% in favour on the numbers in the study; Wales would vote 45.8% in favour using the same numbers adjusted for Welsh demographics.

Wales also has a greater economic attachment to England, as well as a social attachment. Additionally, the Welsh Assembly is much less powerful that the Scottish Parliament.

It's all academic though, as Plaid would have to win an majority in Wales on a manifesto pledge to hold a referendum on independence. IIRC, Plaid don't have a referendum in their manifestos and they're probably not going to win a majority in the Welsh Assembly anytime soon.

[Clyde1998]

If they do vote for independence, say they join the E. U. and adopt the Euro. What country would become their biggest trade partner? Germany? The Netherlands?

The current top few export partners are (there are no import figures):
Rest of the UK - 62% (of total)
United States - 15.9% (of non-UK)
Netherlands - 8.0%
France - 6.3%
Germany - 6.1%
Norway - 4.6%
Denmark - 3.8%
Ireland - 3.5%
Spain - 2.9%
Switzerland - 2.7%
Brazil, UAE - 2.6%

It would likely remain the rUK for the foreseeable future although using a comparable country would give a bit more of an insight. Ireland does most of its exporting with the USA (22.2%), the UK (15.1%), Belgium (13.2%), Germany (6.6%) and Switzerland (5.9%).

That being said, Scotland wouldn't meet the requirements to join the Eurozone, so that may reduce trade with non-Eurozone countries if and when Scotland becomes independent.

[Clyde1998]

That being said, Scotland wouldn't meet the requirements to join the Eurozone, so that may reduce trade with non-Eurozone countries if and when Scotland becomes independent.

I'd expect that if Scotland does gain independence then even it doesn't enter into the ERM II the Scots pund will be tied to either the English pound or to the Euro.

I would imagine it would be similar to what Ireland did before they joined the ERM - having their currency pegged to the Pound to allow for Sterling to be used in Ireland along side the Punt, although Irish currency wasn't able to be used in the UK.

Effectively what happens in Scotland now with the separate Scottish bank notes.